WPAC: INVEST 95W

[Hayabusa]

95W.INVEST

95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.20N.141.8E

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.0N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 423 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF FLARING, DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 290016Z
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A WEAK, DISORGANIZED LLC. A PARTIAL
282307Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS A SYMMETRIC LLC WITH AN AREA OF 10-15 KT
WINDS, WITH ISOLATED 20 KT WINDS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LLC.
INVEST 95W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE THE WELL DEFINED NATURE OF THE
LLC, THE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT AS IT
TRANSITS TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 291530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/291530Z-300600ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.0N 140.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 139.8E, APPROXIMATELY
463 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLC. A 291215Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE, CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. A 291018Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS. INVEST 95W IS IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. DESPITE THE
ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITATIONS, INVEST 95W IS COMPACT AND IS COCOONED
FROM THE DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT AS IT
TRANSITS TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Subtrop]

WTPN22 PGTW 300100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.7N 139.6E TO 22.0N 134.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.6N 139.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.8N 140.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 139.3E, APPROXIMATELY
752NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 291919Z SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, A TIMELY 292247Z ASCAT-A
IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF 20KT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE WIND
SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES BEFORE TURNING TO A
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010100Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

I'm still wondering if this is the GFS and Euro ensemble is tracking by July 3rd or a different altogether circulation

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 300000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 300000.
WARNING VALID 010000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 19N 138E WNW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

[Subtrop]

wp952021 INVEST 20210630 1200 20.4 136.4 W TD 25 1005

[Subtrop]

WTPN21 PGTW 010100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION (INVEST 95W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300051Z JUN 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 300100)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 300100). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95W), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 139.3E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES
A VERY BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. INVEST 95W IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET
BY VERY HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS). GLOBAL MODELS
DO NOT INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FOR INVEST 95W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN