ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

This storm has been puzzling from the start. It should have decoupled days ago. I started to breathe a sigh of relief when all the models shifted to the west. According to the models even the rain will be minor. But, after looking at the latest visible and IR it seems to be expanding to the east. It looks like the heights are dropping over the center and a second mlc circulation is forming near the Ga coast. Almost like it’s making a run to the coast. Not sure what to make of it.

Valdosta, Ga, has rapidly falling pressure of 29.75" as the center approaches. OTOH, Savannah, Brunswick, and nearby coastal and buoy locations are all well above that in the 29.95-30.05" range. So, at the surface, there's still only one solid center well inland. It is still quiet here in the Sav area with no rain and pretty light winds.

[chaser1]

Here is a dumb question to add to my other "useful contributions" to this forum...

Does Elsa's early formation portend a more active season overall or is she a one off? I am not asking y'all to predict the future. I'm just looking for educated guesses.

***I imagine someone at some point already asked this question, but I am shamelessly lazy and don't want to go through 226 pages of discussion to check...

****I apologize if this is not the right place to ask this question, but I did include "Elsa" in my question in order to pretend I am not off topic.

Not a dumb question. Early or active early season starts are often the fuel driving the debate about "what it means" for the heart of the season. The fact that Elsa was of MDR origin this early in the year, AND having a sustained storm track as it did..... suggests to me that the Atlantic over all conditions or "background state" will likely continue to be quite fertile for tropical cyclone development moving forward. Without getting in the weeds regarding "hyperactive" or record breaking...., it seems safe enough to bet on an overall busy Atlantic Hurricane season. What I personally find way more intriguing is how I believe Elsa's storm track serves as a sort of harbinger for other future storm tracks yet to come this season. That does not absolutely potent of additional Florida landfalls this season, but does generally suggest a pattern of similar storm tracks yet to come. Whether some of those storm tracks will veer north through the Bahamas, cruise through the Florida Straits en route to the N. GOM, etc. are dependant on steering & other conditions at that time. Time will tell but I have very little doubt, that Elsa's track is highly suggestive that Florida & the Bahamas will have additional landfall threats this season.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa loves land. She has barely lost structure over Florida and continues to have a fully wrapped core

[OuterBanker]

This storm has been puzzling from the start. It should have decoupled days ago. I started to breathe a sigh of relief when all the models shifted to the west. According to the models even the rain will be minor. But, after looking at the latest visible and IR it seems to be expanding to the east. It looks like the heights are dropping over the center and a second mlc circulation is forming near the Ga coast. Almost like it’s making a run to the coast. Not sure what to make of it.

Valdosta, Ga, has rapidly falling pressure of 29.75" as the center approaches. OTOH, Savannah, Brunswick, and nearby coastal and buoy locations are all well above that in the 29.95-30.05" range. So, at the surface, there's still only one solid center well inland. It is still quiet here in the Sav area with no rain and pretty light winds.

Hmm, according to radar Sav is about to get nailed.

[AnnularCane]

Elsa loves land. She has barely lost structure over Florida and continues to have a fully wrapped core

Is Fay 2008 somehow influencing our storms this year?

[LarryWx]

This storm has been puzzling from the start. It should have decoupled days ago. I started to breathe a sigh of relief when all the models shifted to the west. According to the models even the rain will be minor. But, after looking at the latest visible and IR it seems to be expanding to the east. It looks like the heights are dropping over the center and a second mlc circulation is forming near the Ga coast. Almost like it’s making a run to the coast. Not sure what to make of it.

Valdosta, Ga, has rapidly falling pressure of 29.75" as the center approaches. OTOH, Savannah, Brunswick, and nearby coastal and buoy locations are all well above that in the 29.95-30.05" range. So, at the surface, there's still only one solid center well inland. It is still quiet here in the Sav area with no rain and pretty light winds.

Hmm, according to radar Sav is about to get nailed.

Yeah, the start of the rain here is not too far away. Hopefully, we won't get all that heavy amounts. Got to watch for the tornadoes.

[cheezyWXguy]

Tornado very clearly on the ground headed north toward the Jacksonville area. The cc drop isn’t small

[Evenstar]

Here is a dumb question to add to my other "useful contributions" to this forum...

Does Elsa's early formation portend a more active season overall or is she a one off? I am not asking y'all to predict the future. I'm just looking for educated guesses.

***I imagine someone at some point already asked this question, but I am shamelessly lazy and don't want to go through 226 pages of discussion to check...

****I apologize if this is not the right place to ask this question, but I did include "Elsa" in my question in order to pretend I am not off topic.

Not a dumb question. Early or active early season starts are often the fuel driving the debate about "what it means" for the heart of the season. The fact that Elsa was of MDR origin this early in the year, AND having a sustained storm track as it did..... suggests to me that the Atlantic over all conditions or "background state" will likely continue to be quite fertile for tropical cyclone development moving forward. Without getting in the weeds regarding "hyperactive" or record breaking...., it seems safe enough to bet on an overall busy Atlantic Hurricane season. What I personally find way more intriguing is how I believe Elsa's storm track serves as a sort of harbinger for other future storm tracks yet to come this season. That does not absolutely potent of additional Florida landfalls this season, but does generally suggest a pattern of similar storm tracks yet to come. Whether some of those storm tracks will veer north through the Bahamas, cruise through the Florida Straits en route to the N. GOM, etc. are dependant on steering & other conditions at that time. Time will tell but I have very little doubt, that Elsa's track is highly suggestive that Florida & the Bahamas will have additional landfall threats this season.

Thank you so much.

These answers have all been so amazing, it's a bit humbling. I am most appreciative and I'm definitely printing them out for reference purposes!

[AlphaToOmega]

At the moment, the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina are under a Tropical Storm Warning. The coasts of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts are under a Tropical Storm Watch. Tropical Storm Elsa is currently weakening over land, but there have been many instances of storms intensifying over land. Knowing how erratic Hurricane Elsa has been, maybe that is what it will do. That seems unlikely, but it is always a possibility. Hurricane Elsa is nearly identical to Hurricane Isaias in terms of its track.

[LarryWx]

Steady rain has just started here in the SAV, GA, area. Winds are still light.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Wow. The Jacksonville tornado earlier today was caught on video by Adam Pratt on Facebook, and it's much larger than I was anticipating. Warning - tweet contains NSFW language.

 https://twitter.com/weathergarrett/status/1412896957455118336

[Steve]

Another possible reason for the late intensification was the MJO barely coming out the circle into Phase 3.

[chaser1]

I'm still waiting for the rain dump Elsa was supposed to drop in the Orlando area

[chaser1]

I'm still waiting for the rain dump Elsa was supposed to drop in the Orlando area

[toad strangler]

Levi such a pro. A pro knows his game.

 http://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1412816422011473920

[LarryWx]

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/202 ... en-county/

A tornado touched down early Wednesday evening in Southeast Georgia as Tropical Storm Elsa moved through, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.

According to Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, roughly 10 people were injured, including a pregnant woman.

[LarryWx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
903 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM ...
INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY...

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.

* AT 902 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WATERSPOUTS WAS LOCATED NEAR DOBOY SOUND BUOY D, OR 9 NM NORTHEAST
OF ALTAMAHA SOUND, MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WATERSPOUTS AND WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.

[Vdogg]

The LLC is very close to the coast now and appears to have noticed the water. Convection is blowing up. It seems to be going maybe a little ENE instead of NE. This little jog may make a big difference. I suspect it may stay at least a minimal tropical storm all the way up the coast.

[LarryWx]

All I can say now is holy moly here in SAV! Torrential rains and gusty winds have been occurring! Nothing minor about this storm.

[Steve]

b

All I can say now is holy moly here in SAV! Torrential rains and gusty winds have been occurring! Nothing minor about this storm.

Post those videos Larry.