ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1410006149764554755

The 18z HWRF shows convection popping and expanding over the center during the nighttime hours. If that happens, it could be enough to tighten up 97L’s circulation and lead it to being classified sometime tomorrow.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd bump the odds up to 30/50% at 80 PM.

[captainbarbossa19]

I'd bump the odds up to 30/50% at 80 PM.

That seems reasonable. I doubt they will bump the odds up much unless this thing really starts to develop.

[eastcoastFL]

While I think that development chances are much higher than the NHC's 40%, all indications are that as it nears/reaches the eastern Caribbean it will enter a more hostile region due to strong easterly trades (lack of low-level convergence). 12Z EC develops a depression but weakens/dissipates it as it enters the Caribbean. GFS is much less bullish on it surviving after passing the eastern Caribbean. On the other hand, the new HWRF has a Cat 2 hurricane in the eastern Caribbean in 5 days. It tends to forecast everything to be a hurricane, though. I don't trust it as far as I can throw it, so to speak.

I never trust it’s initial runs as far as intensity goes but it has been super impressive on getting the structure correct on IR.

[SFLcane]

Now 40/60 by NHC 8pm TWO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292326
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are starting to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday

*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF has a stronger hurricane entering the Caribbean.
Climo usually has Southerly shear off South America, but if a hurricane has already formed before it reaches the Caribbean it often sustains itself.
Kind of early in the season for these to spin up before the western Caribbean.
I'd be wishcasting limited development but the NHC seems bullish.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd bump the odds up to 30/50% at 80 PM.

That seems reasonable. I doubt they will bump the odds up much unless this thing really starts to develop.

Looks like I was low.

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that are starting to show some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for development, and a tropical depression could form during the
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20
mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[aspen]

While I think that development chances are much higher than the NHC's 40%, all indications are that as it nears/reaches the eastern Caribbean it will enter a more hostile region due to strong easterly trades (lack of low-level convergence). 12Z EC develops a depression but weakens/dissipates it as it enters the Caribbean. GFS is much less bullish on it surviving after passing the eastern Caribbean. On the other hand, the new HWRF has a Cat 2 hurricane in the eastern Caribbean in 5 days. It tends to forecast everything to be a hurricane, though. I don't trust it as far as I can throw it, so to speak.

I never trust it’s initial runs as far as intensity goes but it has been super impressive on getting the structure correct on IR.

What I find very interesting is that both runs have it potentially slipping between Jamaica and Haiti, which is exactly what Hurricane Dennis did. This would give it more time over water to intensify. However, that’s a very tiny region and therefore unlikely to occur since we don’t even have a defined LLC yet.

Edit: the 18z HWRF does make landfall in Jamaica, but that gives 97L nearly two full days between entering the Caribbean and landfall, compared to only 24-36 hours if it takes a more northerly track into Hispaniola.

[Cpv17]

While I think that development chances are much higher than the NHC's 40%, all indications are that as it nears/reaches the eastern Caribbean it will enter a more hostile region due to strong easterly trades (lack of low-level convergence). 12Z EC develops a depression but weakens/dissipates it as it enters the Caribbean. GFS is much less bullish on it surviving after passing the eastern Caribbean. On the other hand, the new HWRF has a Cat 2 hurricane in the eastern Caribbean in 5 days. It tends to forecast everything to be a hurricane, though. I don't trust it as far as I can throw it, so to speak.

I never trust it’s initial runs as far as intensity goes but it has been super impressive on getting the structure correct on IR.

What I find very interesting is that both runs have it potentially slipping between Jamaica and Haiti, which is exactly what Hurricane Dennis did. This would give it more time over water to intensify. However, that’s a very tiny region and therefore unlikely to occur since we don’t even have a defined LLC yet.

Edit: the 18z HWRF does make landfall in Jamaica, but that gives 97L nearly two full days between entering the Caribbean and landfall, compared to only 24-36 hours if it takes a more northerly track into Hispaniola.

It could easily stay south of Jamaica as well.

[floridasun78]

fema here in south fl watching beacause build that want down look like their seen turn to north into western cuba their i bet their looking to see stift more east later runs i watching it too because my health and i am on Dialysis if i can not go do it i have go into bad diet food as my hurr kit

[NDG]

Is looking good to me, it just needs to keep gaining some latitude to detactch itself from the ITCZ to its west.

[Hammy]

Judging by the IR and surface wind flow, this looks like it's consolidating even more quickly than the GFS is showing.

Three records will fall if we can get a named storm out of this in the next 26 hours--earliest E storm, most storms in June, and farthest east a storm is named in June.

[ElectricStorm]

Looking pretty good right now. Could see a TD/TS as early as tomorrow at this rate.

[Sciencerocks]

[toad strangler]

That's a vigorous AEW. Spinning like a top. And we track ...

[AubreyStorm]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4176/OgKECz.gif

Maybe TD at 8am tomorrow.

[Chris90]

I've seen Dennis and Emily mentioned recently with these early vigorous waves traversing the basin at a low latitude, but the storm I've been thinking of is the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. It was a late June - early July storm that moved at a low latitude, one of only 3 cyclones to produce hurricane force winds in Venezuela, and moved into the Caribbean and then the Gulf. Peaked at 95kts/965mb in the official record (although it's 1933 data, so the margin of error is greater.)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Trinidad_hurricane

Early season storms/hurricanes are rare in the MDR, especially traveling into the Caribbean, but it's happened.

[crownweather]

I've seen Dennis and Emily mentioned recently with these early vigorous waves traversing the basin at a low latitude, but the storm I've been thinking of is the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. It was a late June - early July storm that moved at a low latitude, one of only 3 cyclones to produce hurricane force winds in Venezuela, and moved into the Caribbean and then the Gulf. Peaked at 95kts/965mb in the official record (although it's 1933 data, so the margin of error is greater.)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Trinidad_hurricane

Early season storms/hurricanes are rare in the MDR, especially traveling into the Caribbean, but it's happened.

Interesting that you mention that storm, because we broke record highs today up here in New England set in 1933.

So.....

[ElectricStorm]

I've seen Dennis and Emily mentioned recently with these early vigorous waves traversing the basin at a low latitude, but the storm I've been thinking of is the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. It was a late June - early July storm that moved at a low latitude, one of only 3 cyclones to produce hurricane force winds in Venezuela, and moved into the Caribbean and then the Gulf. Peaked at 95kts/965mb in the official record (although it's 1933 data, so the margin of error is greater.)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Trinidad_hurricane

Early season storms/hurricanes are rare in the MDR, especially traveling into the Caribbean, but it's happened.

If this storm ends up being something like that, that would be very interesting. 1932 had an active November, just like 2020. I'm sure that's just a coincidence, as November 2004 wasn't active but July 2005 was record breaking. Still interesting though.

[aspen]

I've seen Dennis and Emily mentioned recently with these early vigorous waves traversing the basin at a low latitude, but the storm I've been thinking of is the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. It was a late June - early July storm that moved at a low latitude, one of only 3 cyclones to produce hurricane force winds in Venezuela, and moved into the Caribbean and then the Gulf. Peaked at 95kts/965mb in the official record (although it's 1933 data, so the margin of error is greater.)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Trinidad_hurricane

Early season storms/hurricanes are rare in the MDR, especially traveling into the Caribbean, but it's happened.

Interesting that you mention that storm, because we broke record highs today up here in New England set in 1933.

So.....

Talk about record highs. Here in SW CT, it hit 97F with a heat index of 109F. I think only June 10th, 2008 beats today out as the hottest June day in Connecticut.

Hopefully 2021 doesn’t follow 1933, or else the late season is going to be….interesting.