ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Now this little guy is going to be one to watch. I know it's still early in the season, but it's got some potential, and the track looks to be pretty concerning as well.

[AlphaToOmega]

If we trust the NHC percentages, we have a 52% chance of seeing an MDR tropical cyclone within the next 5 days.
Invest 95L chance: 40% within 5 days
Invest 97L chance: 20% within 5 days
The chance of Invest 95L not developing within 5 days is 60%, and the chance of Invest 97L not developing within 5 days is 80%. 60% * 80% = 48%, the chance of seeing neither develop within the next 5 days. It officially more likely than not that we see MDR development within the next 5 days.

[Iceresistance]

If we trust the NHC percentages, we have a 52% chance of seeing an MDR tropical cyclone within the next 5 days.
Invest 95L chance: 40% within 5 days
Invest 97L chance: 20% within 5 days
The chance of Invest 95L not developing within 5 days is 60%, and the chance of Invest 97L not developing within 5 days is 80%. 60% * 80% = 48%, the chance of seeing neither develop within the next 5 days. It officially more likely than not that we see MDR development within the next 5 days.

Nice calculation!

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/104/I3Dq2o.gif

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[crownweather]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/104/I3Dq2o.gif

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6 to 8 hour outage on satellite feed from NOAA for some sites.

I've been using these 2 sites the last few hours -

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=taw&band=01&length=12

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-atlantic-14-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

[SFLcane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/104/I3Dq2o.gif

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Yep currently giving me vibes of GFS bias once again over doing things. We shall see

[SFLcane]

Weakening now… That fast trade flow makes it hard to close off. As soon as it leaves the ITCZ it's gonna struggle to stay closed and upright.

[SFLcane]

The upper-level environment is favorable but there's some fast mid-level flow. It might struggle

[aspen]

The upper-level environment is favorable but there's some fast mid-level flow. It might struggle

That might be what the HWRF and HMON are sniffing out in 60-66 hours.

[SoupBone]

The second MDR invest this June, and this one looks way more likely to develop. Just wait until two months from now...

A front-loaded season isn't a harbinger for the remaining part of the season. That's the beauty of the weather, it's ever-changing. I don't like these early season threats, but we have seen seasons with several threats early that ended up being normal hurricane seasons.

[AlphaToOmega]

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 900
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show signs
of organization. Additional development of this system is possible
during the next several days as it moves generally west-
northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



The chance of an MDR system within the next five days has gone up to 58% based on my calculations (70% * 60% = 42%)

[AnnularCane]

What were the 8 a.m. percentages? I can't find a post about that anywhere.

[hurricanes1234]

Is it just me or the Weathernerds site hasn't updated for several hours now?

The floaters seem to be stuck on 11:55 UTC this morning.

[cycloneye]

What were the 8 a.m. percentages? I can't find a post about that anywhere.

At 8 AM it was at 10%/20%.

[Stormybajan]

What were the 8 a.m. percentages? I can't find a post about that anywhere.

Think they were 10-20 in 2 and 5 days at 8 AM

[hurricanes1234]

What were the 8 a.m. percentages? I can't find a post about that anywhere.

From the 8 AM update:

2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde islands has become a little better organized since yesterday. Additional slow development of this system is possible during the next several days as it moves generally west-northwestward at about 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[AnnularCane]

Oh, so it really did go up. Thanks!

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm just one person, but a 20% chance of genesis over the next 48 h seems way too low, IMO. I would say more like 50%. But of course the NHC has access to a lot more data than I do!

We'll see what the Euro ensembles say here shortly.

[SFLcane]

I'm just one person, but a 20% chance of genesis over the next 48 h seems way too low, IMO. I would say more like 50%. But of course the NHC has access to a lot more data than I do!

We'll see what the Euro ensembles say here shortly.

Euro op is meh. Maybe we get genesis but the Euro is clearly seeing something