ATL: ELSA - Models
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Buoy 42013 which is about the same longitude of Pinellas county is getting wind gusts out of the east over 40 knots currently 33 knots sustained, I'm watching that buoy to get a rough idea of what the surface winds will be like. Shear later in the forecast before the last Florida landfall could reduce intensity but probably not in time for the Tampa bay area.
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Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
From 24 hours ago:......
In retrospect, the July 5th 18z HWRF looks prescient...
However, today's 18z HWRF run looks whack.
Nimbus wrote:aspen wrote:The 18z HWRF has caved to the Euro in terms of intensity and shows a 988 mbar borderline hurricane at landfall around 12z Wednesday.
Mid level convection is being pushed off to the east so Landfall might be Tuesday near Tampa bay if the trend continues. Hopefully that would be a weaker storm in future model runs. Euro and the HWRF strengthening the system in a relatively short range forecast, makes you wonder.
In retrospect, the July 5th 18z HWRF looks prescient...
However, today's 18z HWRF run looks whack.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Genuinely impressive how every single model has incorrectly initialized Elsa too high.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
18Z euro has 1000mb into the same location as the 12Z
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Now I can say that the Euro was a complete fail with its ~982 mb runs.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Elsa is now located about where several of the Euro runs had it strengthening over land. What a horrible performance by the King.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LarryWx wrote:Elsa is now located about where several of the Euro runs had it strengthening over land. What a horrible performance by the King.
Maybe they will be able to re-evaluate what model parameters they need to improve on based on their Elsa model runs.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Navy wins! Well, over the Euro this time. 
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M a r k
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