ATL: ELSA - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
06z HWRF-P run for 95L shows 97L becoming a 982 mbar Cat 1 hurricane just south of Hispainola on July 4th.
Edit: it actually becomes a hurricane earlier, as it passes near Trinidad on Saturday (day 4). It becomes a mid-grade TS around Friday (day 3), roughly when the enhanced CCKW passes through.
Edit: it actually becomes a hurricane earlier, as it passes near Trinidad on Saturday (day 4). It becomes a mid-grade TS around Friday (day 3), roughly when the enhanced CCKW passes through.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
06z Euro Ensembles, a majority of it now show development with 4 of them showing it in the 990s mb range.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
SHIPS model showing no problems with dry air or shear over the next 5 days.
Aggressive as always.
Aggressive as always.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
12z GFS: 97L develops within 36 hours and takes a more northerly track. It doesn’t get as strong in the Caribbean before skimming the southern coasts of Haiti and Cuba.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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AlphaToOmega
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Models can be deceiving. Remember this? Just a possibility
Last edited by AlphaToOmega on Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CyclonicFury
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
12z UKMET:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.8N 34.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.06.2021 0 8.8N 34.1W 1013 20
0000UTC 30.06.2021 12 8.7N 36.0W 1012 27
1200UTC 30.06.2021 24 10.0N 39.3W 1012 25
0000UTC 01.07.2021 36 10.5N 43.6W 1013 28
1200UTC 01.07.2021 48 10.9N 49.0W 1012 33
0000UTC 02.07.2021 60 11.3N 53.7W 1011 35
1200UTC 02.07.2021 72 12.5N 58.6W 1011 39
0000UTC 03.07.2021 84 13.8N 64.2W 1009 39
1200UTC 03.07.2021 96 15.5N 69.6W 1008 42
0000UTC 04.07.2021 108 16.4N 74.6W 1008 36
1200UTC 04.07.2021 120 17.4N 77.8W 1007 38
0000UTC 05.07.2021 132 19.2N 80.9W 1004 40
1200UTC 05.07.2021 144 21.1N 83.5W 1001 47
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.06.2021 0 8.8N 34.1W 1013 20
0000UTC 30.06.2021 12 8.7N 36.0W 1012 27
1200UTC 30.06.2021 24 10.0N 39.3W 1012 25
0000UTC 01.07.2021 36 10.5N 43.6W 1013 28
1200UTC 01.07.2021 48 10.9N 49.0W 1012 33
0000UTC 02.07.2021 60 11.3N 53.7W 1011 35
1200UTC 02.07.2021 72 12.5N 58.6W 1011 39
0000UTC 03.07.2021 84 13.8N 64.2W 1009 39
1200UTC 03.07.2021 96 15.5N 69.6W 1008 42
0000UTC 04.07.2021 108 16.4N 74.6W 1008 36
1200UTC 04.07.2021 120 17.4N 77.8W 1007 38
0000UTC 05.07.2021 132 19.2N 80.9W 1004 40
1200UTC 05.07.2021 144 21.1N 83.5W 1001 47
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Boring run for 97L on the 12z GFS. More curious to see what the ensembles say anyway.
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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
HMON peaks at 988 mbar, but by early Friday, the system weakens to the mid 990s as dry air works it way into the core and the LLC becomes displaced and elongated. In other words, shear.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
12z HWRF @ 102 hours.
Baring in mind the first HWRF runs are usually spastic.
Baring in mind the first HWRF runs are usually spastic.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:12z HWRF @ 102 hours.
Baring in mind the first HWRF runs are usually spastic.
https://i.imgur.com/Z5pao0h.png
At least it’s not bombing out within 60 hours, and keeps 97L as a moderate TS for 2 or 3 days. That early evolution seems reasonable. We’ll have to wait and see about a Category 2 hurricane in the Caribbean, though.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Cpv17 wrote:Boring run for 97L on the 12z GFS. More curious to see what the ensembles say anyway.
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1409912730472095745
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1409915398267494402
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1409903578207207425
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1409905045919911938
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1409901378118488071
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
12z Euro shows no development.
Considering the Euro's poor track record with genesis, it'll probably develop.
Considering the Euro's poor track record with genesis, it'll probably develop.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:12z HWRF @ 102 hours.
Baring in mind the first HWRF runs are usually spastic.
https://i.imgur.com/Z5pao0h.png
How strong is that run showing??
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Iceresistance wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:12z HWRF @ 102 hours.
Baring in mind the first HWRF runs are usually spastic.
https://i.imgur.com/Z5pao0h.png
How strong is that run showing??
Peaks at 95 kt/970 mbar around day 4/5, but weakens a bit as it nears Cuba at the end of the run.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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CyclonicFury
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
I have some doubts the HWRF will be anywhere close to correct. That model seems to always underestimate the effect of systems dealing with fast trades. For instance, last year it blew Gonzalo up into a major hurricane. If I recall correctly it made Don a hurricane in 2017 as well, and made Isaac in 2018 a Category 5 hurricane. I think the ECMWF scenario is more likely to be correct, but it may be a bit stronger than that.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
CyclonicFury wrote:I have some doubts the HWRF will be anywhere close to correct. That model seems to always underestimate the effect of systems dealing with fast trades. For instance, last year it blew Gonzalo up into a major hurricane. If I recall correctly it made Don a hurricane in 2017 as well, and made Isaac in 2018 a Category 5 hurricane. I think the ECMWF scenario is more likely to be correct, but it may be a bit stronger than that.
Considering how the Euro shows no development, literally any development would be “a bit stronger” lol
I remember Gonzalo’s HWRF runs. It blew it up into a pinhole Cat 3, and to be fair, the HWRF got the structure right. It failed to recognize the shear in Gonzalo’s path, though. I don’t recall the Don and Issac runs.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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