ATL: ELSA - Models

[jlauderdal]

Euro has 991mb pressure in N Gulf that should be a Cat 3 with this storm

Actually it shows its strength fluctiating between the low 980s mb and 990s mb before landfall. This is the most aggressive I have seen the Euro with it.

https://i.imgur.com/jScZe3x.png

Euro going with the blind squirrel forecasting method. Eventually it’s going to be right. It tried to kill her off for the past week and that didn’t work so time to switch tactics.

The euro is going to make it sure it can claim some sort of verification.

[LarryWx]

Euro has 991mb pressure in N Gulf that should be a Cat 3 with this storm

Actually it shows its strength fluctiating between the low 980s mb and 990s mb before landfall. This is the most aggressive I have seen the Euro with it.

https://i.imgur.com/jScZe3x.png

I think its overall 12Z run strength is out to lunch. These fluctuations you noted are a clue. What makes it even more out to lunch is that it has it stronger at the FL/GA border vs 6 hours earlier and then it weakens it back. The Euro has been awful with Elsa overall and its 12Z strength is way stronger than all of the other major models.

[Spacecoast]

Euro ens tracks:


Euro/ GFS Ens pressure:

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with 100mph+ wind gusts just offshore the west coast of Florida as Elsa parallels the coast.

[AveryTheComrade]

The HWRF gets Elsa stacked at the last minute and then makes it... extratropical?

[jlauderdal]

12Z Euro with 100mph+ wind gusts just offshore the west coast of Florida as Elsa parallels the coast.

Of course, it dissipated the storm on the east side of florida a few days ago now it goes nuclear...have to take the euro seriousely

[CFLHurricane]

The HWRF gets Elsa stacked at the last minute and then makes it... extratropical?
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/619419338151034911/861723276303925248/hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_16.png

Typical Elsa

[HurricaneBelle]

12Z Euro with 100mph+ wind gusts just offshore the west coast of Florida as Elsa parallels the coast.

Of course, it dissipated the storm on the east side of florida a few days ago now it goes nuclear...have to take the euro seriousely

I'll take it more seriously since it's a +24-36 hour run than a +96-120 one

[Spacecoast]

Elsa Model performance (track error) thus far...



NHC (OFCI / OFCL) has performed amazingly well, with less than 25 nm error @ day 5.
GFS Ensembles (AEMN / AEM2) also did well, along with HMON.
GFS operational (AVNO / AVNI),and TVCN reasonably well through day 3, but not so much @ day 5.
Euro Operational, and Euro Ensembles seem to be struggling with Elsa, as mentioned by others.

[eastcoastFL]

12Z Euro with 100mph+ wind gusts just offshore the west coast of Florida as Elsa parallels the coast.

Of course, it dissipated the storm on the east side of florida a few days ago now it goes nuclear...have to take the euro seriousely

I'll take it more seriously since it's a +24-36 hour run than a +96-120 one

It was also 24-36hrs out when it slammed it into the DR and opened up as a wave…so there’s that.

[aspen]

The 18z HWRF has caved to the Euro in terms of intensity and shows a 988 mbar borderline hurricane at landfall around 12z Wednesday.

[Nimbus]

The 18z HWRF has caved to the Euro in terms of intensity and shows a 988 mbar borderline hurricane at landfall around 12z Wednesday.

Mid level convection is being pushed off to the east so Landfall might be Tuesday near Tampa bay if the trend continues. Hopefully that would be a weaker storm in future model runs. Euro and the HWRF strengthening the system in a relatively short range forecast, makes you wonder.

[NDG]

12z Euro may not have been so crazy of a run after all. If it is one thing that the Euro has is that it sniffes things ahead correctly in the short term. It was more correct than not in how fast it was forecasting Elsa to move across the Caribbean when the GFS and HWRF were much slower.

[NDG]

I spoke too soon, through 22 hrs so far 18z Euro is much weaker than previous 12z run.

[Spacecoast]

Elsa Model Intensity error:



For short term Intensity forecasts(1-3 day), CTCI, GFS Operational (AVNO), and of course NHC (especially day 4-5) have been the most accurate.
The Euro, HWFI, HWRF have been least accurate.

[NDG]

It tracks it very close to the Tampa Bay area, with solid TS force winds well inland.

[NDG]

Landfall Cedar Key.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has close to 60mph wind gusts for coastal St Petersburg and Clearwater in Pinellas County

[caneman]

The GFS has close to 60mph wind gusts for coastal St Petersburg and Clearwater in Pinellas County

Ugh. Might lose power here on Indian Rocks Beach just south of Clearwater. The very western edge of Pinellas County

[ronjon]

The GFS has close to 60mph wind gusts for coastal St Petersburg and Clearwater in Pinellas County

Ugh. Might lose power here on Indian Rocks Beach just south of Clearwater. The very western edge of Pinellas County

Same here in Hernando Beach. Looking like Hermine part 2. Definitely going to get significant storm surge along the coast with this trajectory and strength. Planning for low end CAT 1.