ATL: ELSA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 43.7W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for St. Lucia.

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and
additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
9.6 North, longitude 43.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in portions of
the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday
across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including
Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with the
low pressure area over the central tropical Atlantic is becoming
better organized. However, earlier scatterometer data showed that
the circulation was elongated and not well defined. Since the
system is about 48 h away from the Lesser Antilles and is expected
to become a tropical storm before reaching the islands, advisories
are being initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.
The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the scatterometer
data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 285/18. The disturbance is currently on the
south side of a strong subtropical ridge, and for the next 72 h the
system should move rapidly west-northwestward. Indeed, the forward
speed may exceed 25 kt as the system moves through the Lesser
Antilles. There is excellent agreement in the guidance on this
part of the forecast track. After 72 h, the system is expected to
approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough
over the eastern United States. The should cause the system to slow
its forward speed and turn more northwestward. The track guidance
become more diverse during this time in regards to how far north
the system will turn, and this part of the NHC forecast track is
most similar to the GFS and UKMET forecasts. Note that the track
forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not yet
have a well-defined center.

The disturbance is currently in a favorable upper-level wind
pattern. However, most Atlantic systems in this area moving near 25
kt have trouble strengthening, and there are indications that the
fast forward speed may produce some westerly shear. Thus, the NHC
intensity forecast for the first 72 h is near the lower edge of the
intensity guidance. After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes
highly uncertain due to possible land interaction and differences in
the model forecasts of the upper-level winds. This portion of the
NHC intensity forecast maintains a constant 50-kt intensity due to
the level of uncertainty.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching
the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are possible
beginning Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos
and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week, although the
forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not have
a well-defined center. Interests in these areas should monitor the
system's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts
could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 9.6N 43.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/1800Z 11.1N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 12.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 13.8N 61.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 15.4N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 17.0N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/1800Z 22.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 44.6W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and
additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
9.6 North, longitude 44.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in portions of
the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday
across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including
Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 46.3W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and
additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five
was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 46.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). An even
faster motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to
36 hours. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast and the tropical depression is expected to
become a tropical storm early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning area
beginning late Thursday night into Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Thursday
night into Friday.

RAINFALL: The system will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches
with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce
isolated flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown




Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

The satellite presentation of the system over the last 6-12 hours
has continued to gradually improve, with a prominent banding feature
to the west of the estimated center. An ASCAT-A pass received at
2323 UTC revealed that the low-level circulation has become a bit
better defined compared to earlier today, though still somewhat
elongated to the south and west. The peak wind retrievals from this
instrument were 30-32 kt. While subjective satellite estimates
from TAFB and SAB were a bit higher, the latest estimated intensity
was held at 30 kt for this advisory in agreement with the slightly
lower scatterometer data.

The initial motion has accelerated a bit tonight at 280/20
kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated poleward of the tropical
depression and this feature should steer the system quickly to the
west-northwest over the next several days. After 72 hours, the
tropical cyclone will reach the westward extent of the ridge and
begin to move more poleward and slow down as the ridge also becomes
eroded by a mid-latitude trough to over the eastern US. The track
guidance in the latter portion of the forecast continues to exhibit
large spread, with the GFS and HWRF/HMON models along the left side
of the guidance envelop, while the ECMWF and its ensemble mean
on the right side. The latest NHC track forecast is a shade right
of the previous one, and also slightly faster, but given the spread
in the models, the latter portion of the track is more uncertain
than usual.

While the depression is currently in a favorable environment of low
vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and high
mid-level relative humidity, the expected acceleration in forward
motion could cause the system to outrun the favorable upper-level
easterlies currently overhead, after 36 hours. In addition, the
system could be near or over some of the Greater Antilles in the
latter portions of the forecast. For these reasons, the intensity
remained capped at 50 kt after 36 hours, and is still on the lower
end of the intensity guidance suite, though this forecast could be
somewhat conservative.


Key Messages:

1. The tropical depression is expected to become a tropical storm
before reaching the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions
are expected beginning late Thursday night in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos
and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in
these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the
forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts
could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 9.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 10.5N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 11.7N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 13.0N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 14.7N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 16.5N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 18.3N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 05/0000Z 20.9N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
120H 06/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

[AlphaToOmega]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 010853
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ELSA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 48.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 48.8 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). An even faster
motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36
hours. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Elsa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may
lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
WTNT45 KNHC 010854
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern became a little better
organized overnight, with convective banding features becoming more
evident over the western and southwestern portions of the
circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined to the west of
the system, and restricted over the eastern semicircle. The
current intensity is set at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak
estimates from SAB and TAFB, and just slightly above the maximum
winds from an earlier scatterometer pass, making the cyclone a
tropical storm. Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm on
record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present),
breaking the record formerly held by Edouard on July 6, 2020.

The storm has been accelerating westward overnight, and the initial
motion is around 275/22 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated
to the north of the storm, and this feature should steer the system
quickly to the west-northwest for the next 3 days or so. There is
significant uncertainty in the track forecast from days 3-5. The
ECMWF model turns the cyclone northward after interacting with
Hispaniola while the other models such as the GFS, HWRF, and U.K.
Met take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and
within the latter suite of guidance. However the discrepancy in
the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual.

Some intensification is likely for the next day or two, since Elsa
is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface
temperatures, fairly low vertical wind shear, and high
mid-level relative humidity. However, the fast forward motion could
result in some decoupling of the low- and higher-level circulation
which would limit strengthening. Also, the potential interaction
of the storm with the mountainous land masses of the Greater
Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation
somewhat. Therefore the official intensity forecast, like the
previous one, is quite conservative and on the lower end of the
guidance suite.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall from the system will move quickly across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on
Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos
and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in
these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the
forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts
could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 9.4N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 10.3N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 11.7N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 13.2N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 14.9N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 21.0N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 24.5N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA CONTINUING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 50.2W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 50.2 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). An even faster motion
toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of
the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may
lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT RACES TOWARD THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 51.4W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 51.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west near 28 mph (44 km/h). An even faster motion
toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of
the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By early
Sunday Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern Cuba.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. Over
Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5
inches are expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

Just-received scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt winds to the
northeast of the center, so the initial intensity is increased to
40 kt. Some slight revisions were also made to the initial and
forecast wind radii. Over all, the organization of the storm has
changed little during the past several hours, with the low-level
center partly exposed to the north and northwest of the primary
convective band.

Elsa continues to move a little faster with the initial motion now
280/24. A rapid west-northwestward motion is likely for the next
48 h or so as Elsa is steered by the strong subtropical ridge to
the north. After that time, the storm is expected to approach a
weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the
eastern United states. The guidance becomes rather divergent as
this happens, as the ECWMF and ECMWF ensemble mean forecast a turn
toward the north while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion. The latter part of the
new NHC forecast track will lean more toward the GFS/UKMET solutions
at this time, but the large spread in both the deterministic models
and the ensembles make this part of the forecast of low confidence.
The new official forecast track has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast.

Some additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so
as Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface
temperatures, light vertical wind shear, and high mid-level
relative humidity. However, as mentioned earlier, the fast forward
motion could result in some decoupling of the lower and upper parts
of the storm, and this could limit strengthening. The latter part
of the intensity forecast also has high uncertainty due to the
possibility of land interaction and disagreements among the
global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be.
Based on these factors, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be
on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday, with
outer rain bands impacting Puerto Rico Friday into Saturday.
Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas through early
next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress
and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida Peninsula early
next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than
usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles
this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress
and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 10.1N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 11.2N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 12.6N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 14.1N 64.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 15.9N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 22.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 25.6N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA NOW MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 52.6W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 52.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). An even
faster motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next
24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.
By early Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern
Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. Over
Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5
inches are expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA STILL MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 53.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the southern and western
coasts of Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic
to Le Mole le St. Nicholas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border
of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole le St. Nicholas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, eastern
Cuba, and Jamaica should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight and
Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 53.8 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday,
Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Haiti on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday.
This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

The structure of Elsa has changed little since the last advisory,
with the low-level center partly exposed to the northwest of the
somewhat-ragged primary convective band. Various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have changed little during
the last 6 h, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/25. There is little change to the
track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A rapid
west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 48 h or so as Elsa
is steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the north. After
that time, the storm is expected to approach a weakness in the
ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United
states. The guidance becomes rather divergent as this happens, as
the ECWMF and the ECMWF ensembles forecast a turn toward the north
while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a continued west-
northwestward to northwestward motion. In addition, the GFS
ensemble members are spread from a continued west-northwestward
motion toward the Yucatan Peninsula on one side to a northward
motion east of the northern Bahamas on the other. The latter part
of the new NHC forecast track will still lean more toward the
deterministic GFS/UKMET solutions, but the confidence remains low.
The new official forecast track again has only minor adjustments
from the previous forecast.

The intensity forecast and its high uncertainty are also little
changed from the last advisory. Some strengthening is expected
during the next day or so as Elsa is expected to be in an
environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, light vertical wind
shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, as mentioned
earlier, the fast forward motion could result in the upper and lower
parts of the storm being unable to stay together, and this could
limit strengthening. The latter part of the intensity forecast also
has the issues of possible land interaction and disagreements among
the global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be,
although the latest model runs trended toward less favorable
conditions north of about 22N. This uncertainty is highlighted by
the UKMET forecasting Elsa to weaken to a trough near western Cuba
while the GFS forecasts it to be a hurricane in the same area and
time. Based on these factors, the NHC intensity forecast continues
to be on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are
possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer
rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola
by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Cuba, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early
next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress
and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 11.2N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.1N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.5N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.1N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 18.3N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA HEADING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND A PORTION OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 54.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from
the Haiti/Dominican Republic border eastward to Punta Palenque.

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border
of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern
border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti,
and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight and
Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 54.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday,
Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti
on Saturday, and are possible in Jamaica Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday.
This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

[cycloneye]

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 55.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border
of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern
border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti,
and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 55.9 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward
Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the
eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near
the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is
forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Recent satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Recent satellite wind data also indicates the tropical-storm-force
winds now extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the
north of the center. NOAA Buoy 41040, located more than 200 miles
north of the center of Elsa, recently reported a wind gust of 38
mph (61 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti
on Saturday, and are possible in Jamaica Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday.
This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown


Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

The convective structure with Elsa tonight appears to be somewhat
better organized than earlier, with a bursting type pattern of cold
-75 to -80 C cloud top temperatures just to the northeast of the
estimated center. However, a SSMIS microwave pass at 2130 UTC
revealed that, underneath the cirrus, the deeper convection is still
struggling to rotate up-shear as the system moves quickly to the
west-northwest. Despite that fact, an ASCAT-A pass clipped the
northeastern edge of Elsa and showed several wind retrievals of
44-46 kt. In addition, the most recent subjective Dvorak satellite
classification from TAFB was T3.0/45 kt. In support of these data,
the current estimated intensity was raised to 45 kt for this
advisory.

Elsa continues to move quickly to the west-northwest at 290/23 kt. A
continued rapid motion to the west-northwest is expected for the
next 36 hours as the storm remains steered by a strong subtropical
ridge to its north, and the guidance has trended a bit faster once
again tonight. Thereafter, Elsa will reach the western extent of
this ridge which will be eroded by a strong mid-latitude trough
centered off the eastern US. Once again, the guidance spread
increases greatly by this time, with the GFS/UKMET on the slow and
left side of the guidance envelope, the ECMWF and its ensembles on
the fast and right side, and the Canadian roughly in the middle.
Interestingly, the latest GFS ensembles show some bifurcation within
the larger guidance envelope, with the strongest members further
south and west. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the
previous track early on but somewhat faster, and in the latter
period was nudged just slightly eastward towards the TVCN
consensus. However, the track forecast in the latter time period
remains low confidence.

The intensity forecast with Elsa also continues to be challenging
this evening. While the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that the
current 200-850-hPa vertical wind shear is only 5-10 kt, the strong
east-southeasterly low-level flow Elsa is embedded in is resulting
in stronger 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly mid-level shear. This
mid-level shear has thus far prevented deep convection from wrapping
around the circulation and helping to align the low- and mid-level
vortex like the GFS/HWRF models have been forecasting over the past
day. Despite this convective structure, the fast east-southeasterly
low-level flow will likely continue to enhance the winds on the
north side of the circulation. For this reason, the intensity
forecast still shows intensification in the short term to 55 kt.
However, additional intensification beyond that will likely require
a better vertically aligned vortex. This structure may be difficult
to achieve as moderate mid-level shear continues, counter to the
motion vector of the storm. After 48 hours, the intensity forecast
shows slight weakening given the possibility of land interaction
over the Greater Antilles. The latest intensity forecast continues
remain on the conservative side relative to the guidance, especially
the HWRF/HMON regional hurricane models, and is also low
confidence.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin early Friday in
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are
possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday, and
are also possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer
rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola
by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next
week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress
and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 11.8N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 12.8N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 14.5N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.2N 69.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 17.7N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 19.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 23.9N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 28.2N 83.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND IS VERY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 58.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from
Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire coast of
Haiti, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern
portion of the country from Port Au Prince to the southern border
with the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the
border with Haiti
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 58.6 West. Elsa is
moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move
near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday,
Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over
the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by little change in strength.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas and
possible in the watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and
Haiti on Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible in southern
Haiti. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday
night or early Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg




Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Elsa appears to be slowly gaining strength as it nears the Lesser
Antilles. Deep convection has been increasing, and accordingly, the
latest Dvorak estimates have nudged upward. The initial intensity
is increased to 50 kt, but some of the estimates are a little
higher. Radar data from Barbados indicate that a small inner core
could be forming, and it seems likely that the center will pass very
near or over the island later this morning. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours, and
the data collected by the plane should provide a better estimate of
Elsa's intensity and structure.

The tropical storm is moving quickly to the west-northwest at about
24 kt. A subtropical ridge should continue to steer Elsa briskly to
the west-northwest during the next day or two, taking the storm
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, a
decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the north is
expected toward a weakness in the ridge. There has not been much
change in the latest model runs with the GFS and UKMET models on the
left side of the guidance and the ECMWF still on the right side.
The spread in the ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF is very
large and range from tracks across or east of the Bahamas to the
Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track forecast continues to hold steady
and lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. As
stated in previous discussions, this is a low confidence track
forecast given the large spread in the models.

In the short term, while Elsa moves across the warm Caribbean
waters, some additional strengthening seems likely. However, the
fast forward speed of the storm and associated mid-level wind shear
should prevent significant intensification. Since the new forecast
is a little higher than the previous one and shows peak winds just
below hurricane force on Saturday near Haiti, tropical storm
warnings have been issued for portions of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti and a hurricane watch is now in effect for the southern
portion of Haiti out of abundance of caution. The degree of land
interaction with the mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba will
be a big factor in the future strength of Elsa at days 4 and 5.
Like the track forecast, there is a huge model spread with solutions
ranging from dissipation in the Caribbean to a category 3 hurricane.
Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast generally keeps the
storm steady in strength from 24 to 120 h, and it remains on the low
side of the model guidance.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-
normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from
the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact
forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this
morning in portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible
over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain
bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides
are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next
week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 12.7N 58.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

[AlphaToOmega]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 021147
TCUAT5

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone
is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the
hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane
Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of
74 mph and a gust to 86 mph.

SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Latto/Zelinsky

[AlphaToOmega]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021222
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Special Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS..


SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 60.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Hurricane
Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the
border with Haiti
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Jamaica
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today, including Hurricane
Warnings for portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 830 AM AST (1230 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 60.1 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move
near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa
is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Reports from Barbados indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). Barbados recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph
(119 km/h) and a wind gust of 86 mph (138 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
Barbados recently reported a pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados, and are
expected in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands in
the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the
tropical storm warning areas and are possible in the tropical storm
watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday,
with hurricane conditions possible in southern Haiti. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday night or early
Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and along the
southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may
lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

823
WTNT45 KNHC 021223
TCDAT5

Hurricane Elsa Special Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa has become a
hurricane, and this special advisory is being issued to update the
first 36 h of the intensity and wind radii forecasts. More
revisions of the intensity forecast are likely on the next regular
advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently entering the hurricane, and a NOAA aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system this afternoon.

There are no changes to the forecast track at this time. It should
be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200
miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal
uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the
center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact
forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected
elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning
in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible
over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain
bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides
are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next
week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1230Z 13.1N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA PASSING NEAR ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 61.2W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the southern portion of
Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican
Republic.

The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has issued a
Hurricane Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from
Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti, a Tropical Storm Warning
for the south coast from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti, and
a Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo.

The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical
Storm Warning for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Dominica
* The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the
border with Haiti
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the
Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 61.2 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days, with some
decrease in forward speed expected Sunday night. On the
forecast track, Elsa will move away from the Windward Islands
during the next several hours, move across the eastern Caribbean
Sea later today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of
Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa
is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and
move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and
early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. Some decrease in winds is possible on Monday as Elsa
interacts with Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). The Hewanorra Airport on St. Lucia recently reported
sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 79 mph (127
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands within the tropical storm warning areas and are
possible in the tropical storm watch areas later today. Hurricane
conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti by
late Saturday and are possible in the hurricane watch area in the
Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are
possible on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the
hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


TCDAT5

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Elsa has become better organized,
and radar data from Barbados and Martinique have shown attempts at
eye formation. The formative northern eyewall passed over Barbados
near 11-12Z, and hurricane-force winds were reported there at that
time. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on those data. It
should be noted that reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft suggest that the circulation is not well-developed
at 700 mb, possible due to the rapid forward speed.

The initial motion is 290/25. There is little change to the
forecast track or the forecast guidance since the last advisory.
The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward
notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic by 36 hr.
After that, the general consensus is that Elsa should turn northward
by 96 h through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a
mid-latitude trough. However, the guidance is quite divergent
around this consensus, with possible tracks ranging from a
west-northwestward motion through the Yucatan Channel or western
Cuba to a northward motion through the Bahamas. Thus, the latter
portion of the track forecast remains low confidence.

The intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening during
the next 36 h as Elsa moves through an environment of light
westerly shear. After that, land interaction, along with less
favorable upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, is likely to
cause weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast shows major
adjustments from the previous forecasts based primarily on the
initial intensity.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on
the exact forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area
in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in other portions of the Windward and
Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane
Warning area in Haiti on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected with hurricane conditions possible along the southern
coast of the Dominican Republic and in Jamaica.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain
bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides
are possible.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge and
rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba this weekend and early next
week, with impacts also possible in the Turks and Caicos and
the Bahamas. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's
progress and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 13.4N 61.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.6N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 16.3N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 73.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 20.7N 78.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1200Z 30.6N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS MORE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 62.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Cayman Brac and Little
Cayman.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has changed the Hurricane
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines to a Tropical Storm
Warning, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Dominica
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the
Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 62.5 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days, with some
decrease in forward speed expected Sunday night. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move away from the Windward Islands during the next
several hours, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon
and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late
Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move
near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of
central and western Cuba Sunday night and early Monday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours. Some decrease in winds is possible on Monday as Elsa
interacts with Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
140 miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands within the tropical storm warning areas
and are possible in the tropical storm watch areas later today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in
Haiti by late Saturday and are possible in the hurricane watch area
in the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions
are possible on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the
hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 63.7W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Jamaica.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and
Santiago de Cuba.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the
Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 63.7 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through Saturday. A west-northwestward motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On
the forecast track, Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea
tonight and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late
Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move
near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of
central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday.
Slow weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as
Elsa passes near or over the Greater Antilles.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in
Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the
Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in
significant flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa
has strengthened a little more since the last advisory, with a
combination of flight-level winds, SFMR surface wind estimates, and
dropsonde data showing that the maximum winds are near 75 kt. The
aircraft also reported that the 700-mb circulation remains somewhat
disorganized, and that the 700-mb center is not vertically aligned
with with the surface center. The former issue is likely due to
the rapid motion, and the latter may be due to the effects of
westerly shear.

The initial motion now is 290/26. There is again little change to
the forecast track or the forecast guidance. The guidance is in
good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the
south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti by 24-30 h, followed
by a continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed
through 48 h. After that time, Elsa should gradually turn
northwestward and eventually northward as it moves through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough
over the eastern United States. This motion should take the
cyclone across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the
nearby Florida Peninsula, eventually moving into the southeastern
United States by the end of the period. The track guidance is a
little less divergent than earlier, but there is still enough spread
in the potential tracks that this part of the forecast remains low
confidence.

The latest global model runs and the associated intensity guidance
are forecasting a less favorable environment for Elsa during the
next several days. The SHIPS model now calls for 10-20 kt of
northwesterly shear during the next 48 h, and 15-25 kt of shear
after 60 h. In addition, the 12Z GFS forecasts a considerably
weaker storm than its last several runs. The intensity forecast
thus calls for little change in strength during the first 24 h,
although it is possible the hurricane could strengthen a little more
during that time. After that, land interaction and shear are
likely to cause weakening until Elsa emerges into the Gulf of
Mexico. However, the HWRF still calls for Elsa to intensify into a
Category 3 hurricane, and like the track forecast the intensity
forecast remains of low confidence due to the spread in the
guidance.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on
the exact forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican
Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday.

2. Heavy rainfall will gradually subside across the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands tonight, including Barbados. Outer rain
bands will impact Puerto Rico by late tonight, and affect southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides are possible. By early next week, heavy
rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Significant flooding
and mudslides are possible.

3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in
portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward
along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast
uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential
interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend.
Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.2N 63.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 71.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.9N 77.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 21.4N 79.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ELSA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 65.1W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.

The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Martinique.

The Meteorological Service of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for Grenada And Its Dependencies.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 65.1 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward
speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track,
Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight across the
central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and move near the southern coast
of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is
forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move
near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday. Slow
weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa
interacts with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm
watch area in the northern Leeward Islands for the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in
Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, this evening. This
rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall
with decrease across this area by early Saturday morning.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected tonight into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides.

By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the
Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result
in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER...
...HURRICANE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN BY LATE SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 66.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Saba and Sint Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor
the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 66.3 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward
speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track,
Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight across the
central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and move near the southern coast
of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is
forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move
near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
tonight, with some restrengthening expected on Saturday. Slow
weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa
interacts with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from
the aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday.
Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or
Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will begin to
impact Puerto Rico tonight with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
with localized amounts of 5 inches possible through Saturday. This
rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding,
along with the potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides.

By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the
Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result
in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin




Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Elsa has weakened slightly, and that the flight-level and
surface centers are not vertically aligned. The maximum 700-mb wind
speed measured was 75 kt and the highest SFMR surface wind sampled
was 61 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, these data were
collected outside of the strongest convection that was occurring
just east of the flight track, so the intensity has only been
lowered to 70 kt, which is supported by the slightly higher central
pressure of 995 mb sampled by a dropsonde.

The initial motion estimate now is 285/25 kt. There remains little
significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The
latest 00Z model guidance has become more convergent and now lies
nearly on top of the previous advisory track. Over the last 48 h,
the ECMWF model has steadily shifted Elsa's track westward by about
1 degree of longitude each model cycle, with the latest ECMWF
forecast track now being located about 240 nmi west of its forecast
track two days ago. As a result, less weight has been placed on the
ECMWF solution for this advisory. However, even its latest solution
no longer takes Elsa over the heart of Hispaniola. Elsa should
continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next 48 h,
accompanied by a slow but steady decrease in forward speed. By the
time the hurricane nears southern Cuba, the forward speed should be
less than 15 kt. Thereafter, Elsa should gradually turn
northwestward and eventually northward through a developing weakness
in the subtropical ridge This motion should take Elsa across Cuba
and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the nearby Florida Peninsula
on day 4, followed by a motion over the coastal regions of the
southeastern United States on day 5. The new NHC forecast track is
essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and closely
follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models, and the TVCA
simple consensus model.

Elsa's fast forward speed and recent entrainment of dry mid-level
air into the western semicircle has eroded some of the inner-core
convection, resulting in the aforementioned weakening. In fact, NOAA
G-IV dropsondes launched around 2100 UTC northwest of Elsa indicated
a significant dry-air layer between 400-500-hPa that may have
been imported by moderate northwesterly mid-level shear. However, as
the cyclone's forward speed steadily decreases, the low-, mid-, and
upper-level circulations should become more vertically aligned,
which should allow for at least some slight re-strengthening during
the next 24 h or so. Possible interaction with the landmasses of
Haiti, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica is the primary reason for not
showing a more robust intensity forecast given the very warm water
beneath the hurricane and a very favorable upper-level wind flow
regime. The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be
moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone,
which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of
the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up
'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then
subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to
the much stronger HWRF model. For now, the official NHC intensity
forecast maintains continuity with the previous advisory, and shows
only slight re-strengthening due to possible interaction with land.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on
the exact forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican
Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday.

2. The outer rain bands from Elsa will impact Puerto Rico by late
tonight, with widespread heavy rain moving into southern Hispaniola
and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides are possible. Through early next week, heavy
rain is expected to impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba resulting in
significant flooding with mudslides possible in Cuba.

3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in
portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward
along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast
uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential
interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend.
Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 66.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 16.1N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 19.0N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.5N 78.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 23.7N 81.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 27.7N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 32.4N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021

...ELSA NEARING THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 69.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 69.0 West. Elsa is moving
very quickly toward the west-northwest near 31 mph (50 km/h). A
decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On
the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of
Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and
portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to
move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida
Straits.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today,
but slow weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is
expected to be near or over Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact
Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

Across portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday,
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding
with mudslides in Cuba.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg





Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021

Elsa appears less organized this morning. Satellite images show an
asymmetric cloud pattern with the low-level center located near the
northwestern edge of the main area of thunderstorms. This satellite
presentation is indicative of moderate-to-strong northwesterly
shear that is likely caused by the tropical cyclone's fast forward
motion. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt following a blend
of the latest Dvorak estimates. The hurricane passed by NOAA buoy
42059 a few hours ago, and the storm's minimum pressure was
adjusted a few millibars higher based on the buoy's data. Another
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be flying through Elsa in
a couple of hours, and the data the plane collects will provide a
better estimate of Elsa's intensity and structure.

Elsa continues to move very quickly to the west-northwest at about
27 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should
keep it on a west-northwest path, albeit at a slightly slower pace
through the weekend. This should take the core of the storm just
south of or over southern Hispaniola later today and near or
across Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Sunday. Shortly after that time,
Elsa is expected to near the western edge of the ridge and move
toward a weakness over the southeastern U.S. In response to this
pattern change, Elsa should slow down some more and turn to the
north. The models appear to be slowly converging on a solution in
showing the cyclone making the northward turn somewhere over Cuba on
Monday and then heading in the vicinity of Florida or the
eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday. Although the
models are in better agreement compared to previous days, there is
still a considerable amount of spread in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble
members, and the details of the long-term track are still uncertain.

Some mid-level wind shear associated with Elsa's fast forward speed
appears to be affecting the hurricane now. However, since the
cyclone is expected to slow down and move beneath an upper-level
anticyclone later this weekend, it seems likely that the vortex will
become better aligned in the vertical. The big question is will
Elsa be interacting with the mountainous islands of Hispaniola and
Cuba when the environmental winds become conducive for
strengthening. If the cyclone manages to stay south of those
islands, Elsa could have an opportunity to restrengthen. Conversely,
if the storm tracks directly over the islands, weakening would very
likely occur. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows
little change in strength through tonight, followed by slow
weakening on Sunday and early Monday. Slight restrengthening is
forecast when Elsa moves north of Cuba and across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. This forecast is a little lower than the previous one in
the short term, but is largely unchanged at the longer forecast
times.

Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the
degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are
urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference,
average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150
miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15
mph for both days 3 and 4.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican
Republic later today and in Jamaica beginning Sunday.

2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding
and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the
Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant
flooding with mudslides in Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding and
minor river flooding will be possible.

3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in
portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward
along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast
uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential
interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend.
Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 16.2N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.5N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.0N 75.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.5N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 22.1N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1800Z 23.4N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/0600Z 24.7N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 33.7N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021

...ELSA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 70.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 70.3 West. Elsa is moving very
quickly toward the west-northwest near 31 mph (50 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a
turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later
today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern
Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow
weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to
be near or over Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact
Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

Across portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday,
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding
with mudslides in Cuba.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven