ATL: ELSA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA APPROACHING CHESAPEAKE BAY...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 76.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Surf City,
North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa
will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight and move
near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday
night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through
Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mostly southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow station on Pamlico
Sound recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) gusting
to 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
mid-Atlantic coast overnight. These winds will spread northward in
the warning area over the northeastern states on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England...2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible
through Friday, which could result in limited flash and urban
flooding for the northern Mid-Atlantic States and considerable flash
and urban flooding in New England. Isolated minor river flooding is
also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible overnight along the
Mid-Atlantic coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Elsa has become slightly better organized this evening.
Convection near the center of Elsa has deepened, and the surface
pressures have fallen a few mb since this afternoon based on
observations over eastern Virginia. Although there are no wind
reports above 40 kt during the past several hours, recent
Doppler velocity data shows stronger winds offshore of the
mid-Atlantic states, so the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt.

It appears that the early stages of extratropical transition
have begun with Elsa, with almost all of the deep convection north
of the center. A shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes should
cause the storm to deepen on Friday but also expand in size,
resulting in the maximum winds staying about the same as they are
now. Elsa should transition into an extratropical cyclone within
24 hours due to the shortwave and cold waters south of New England,
and then gradually weaken over Atlantic Canada and northeast of
Newfoundland after it loses its baroclinic support. The new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the consensus
of the global models.

The storm is moving faster to the northeast this evening and will
gradually accelerate northeastward during the next day or two due
to speedy mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern North America. Elsa
should move over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within
the next 12-36 hours. The model guidance remains tightly packed on
that solution, and the new official track forecast remains close to
the previous one.

Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across the eastern mid-Atlantic overnight, heavy
rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy
rainfall across New England through Friday could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the
mid-Atlantic coast overnight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in portions of the southern New England states and New
York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic
Canada Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 37.6N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/1200Z 40.5N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/0000Z 44.6N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1200Z 49.4N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0000Z 54.5N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/1200Z 58.5N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...ELSA RACING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY TOWARD EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Little
Egg Inlet, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Egg Inlet to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states early this morning,
and move near or over the northeastern United States by late
morning and this afternoon and tonight. The system should move over
Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is expected through today, and
Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 78
mph (126 km/h) was measured by a WeatherFlow site in Ludlam Bay,
New Jersey, while a wind gust to 71 mph was observed in Beach
Haven, New Jersey. These two wind reports appear to have been
associated with nearby tornadoes.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches),
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. These winds will spread
northward in the warning area over the northeastern states from
late this morning into the afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across northern New Jersey, Long Island, and southern and
coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up
to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in
considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river
flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon
over parts of Long Island and southeastern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

Elsa has become better organized this early Friday morning as
evidenced by a tightly coiled convective band that wraps completely
around the low-level circulation center, along with Doppler radar
velocities of more than 80 kt detected between 3000-7000 ft.
Upper-level outflow has expanded in all directions except the
southwestern quadrant, and the GFS and ECMWF models have assessed
the vertical wind shear to only be 10 kt and 13 kt, respectively,
over the center. Wind gusts to 68 kt and 62 kt were recently
measured in Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, and Beach Haven, New Jersey,
respectively. However, radar data suggest that these wind gusts were
possibly associated with the passage of nearby tornadic circulations
and were not due to Elsa's larger wind field. The central pressure
of 1000 mb is based on a nearby pressure report of 1000.6 mb from
the Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, WeatherFlow site, but this value could
be conservative. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt based on
recent observations from offshore buoys.

The initial motion is estimated to be 045/27 kt. Elsa is forecast
by the latest global and regional models to continue accelerating
northeastward today through Saturday due to the system being
embedded within deep-layer southwesterly mid-latitude flow. Elsa
should move over southeastern New England today and over Atlantic
Canada late tonight and on Saturday. The new NHC track forecast lies
on top of the previous advisory track and is close to the middle of
the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models.

Elsa will be moving over 22-deg-C and cooler sea-surface
temperatures by 6 hours and beyond, which should further hasten
the ongoing extratropical transition process. This transition is
expected to be completed in 18 hours or so when Elsa is forecast to
be located over Atlantic Canada.

Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves near Long Island and southern and coastal New
England today, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash
and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the
mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New
York by late this morning and afternoon. Gusty winds are expected
over portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 39.4N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
12H 09/1800Z 42.2N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/0600Z 46.6N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1800Z 51.3N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0600Z 55.4N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/1800Z 59.5N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 73.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Sandy
Hook, New Jersey.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 73.1 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Elsa will move near or over eastern Long Island and the
coast of southern New England today, and then offshore the
northeastern United States coast by late this afternoon. The
system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through today.
Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 44066 located about 85 miles (140 km)
east of Long Beach, New Jersey recently measured a peak one-minute
sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches),
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread into the warning area
over the northeastern U.S. coast this morning and continue through
early afternoon. Elsa is likely to bring gusty winds to portions
of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL: Across northern New Jersey, Long Island, and southern and
coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up
to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in
considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river
flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon
over parts of Long Island and southeastern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 72.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WSW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by surface and radar data over eastern Long Island near
latitude 41.0 North, longitude 72.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the
northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa
will move near eastern Long Island and the coast of southern New
England through this afternoon, and then offshore the northeastern
United States coast by this evening. The system should move over
Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is expected today. Gradual
weakening is forecast to occur over the weekend. Elsa is forecast
to become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow site near Jones Beach, New York
recently reported a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) and a WeatherFlow
site near Block Island Jetty observed a sustained wind of 39 mph
(63 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA
buoy 44025 is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions
of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid-
afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions
of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of
rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today,
which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding.
Isolated minor river flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon
over southeastern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

The extratropical transition of Elsa is well underway. A frontal
boundary located over southern New England nearly wraps into the
circulation center, and the primary area of cold cloud tops and
heavy rainfall has now shifted to the northwestern portion of the
cyclone. Elsa is expected to complete its extratropical transition
this afternoon. Buoy and surface observations indicate that the
cyclone's intensity has changed little since early this morning.
Based on those data, Elsa's peak winds and minimum pressure
remain 45 kt and 1000 mb for this advisory, respectively.

Elsa continues to move quickly northeastward or 045/27 kt. The
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue accelerating
northeastward over the next day or two as it remains embedded
within deep-layer southwesterly flow. After 48 hours, the system is
expected to slow before it dissipates over the north Atlantic
around day 3. The track guidance remains in good agreement, but has
shifted slightly southward after 24 hours and the NHC forecast has
been adjusted accordingly.

Little change in strength is anticipated in the short-term as Elsa
completes its extratropical transition. After that time, gradual
weakening is anticipated and the wind speed forecast calls for the
system to weaken below gale-force in a couple of days. The global
models show the post-tropical cyclone dissipating over the north
Atlantic by early next week, and the official forecast follows
suit.

Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves near southern and coastal New England today, heavy
rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions
of the warning area in Long Island and southern New England
through this afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over portions of
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 41.0N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 44.0N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1200Z 48.4N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0000Z 52.2N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1200Z 56.5N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 60.0N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS....

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 71.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for all of Long
Island and the coast of New England west of Watch Hill, Rhode
Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Merrimack River, Massachusetts
including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that Elsa has
lost its tropical characteristics and has become a post-tropical
cyclone. At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical
Cyclone Elsa was located by surface and radar data over
southeastern Massachusetts near latitude 42.0 North, longitude
71.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Elsa will move near the coast of
southeastern Massachusetts this afternoon, and then move
offshore the northeastern United States coast by this evening. The
system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. The
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken over the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow
site at Kalmus Beach near Hyannis, Massachusetts recently reported
a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100
km/h). An unofficial observing site near Falmouth, Massachusetts
reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/) gusting to 49 mph (80
km/h). A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) has been observed at the
Nantucket Airport. NOAA buoy 44020 in Nantucket Sound measured a
sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface data is
999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions
of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid-
afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions
of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of
rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today,
which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding.
Isolated minor river flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021

...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
US THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All remaining Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern U.S.
coast have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa
was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Elsa will continue to move offshore
the northeastern United States coast through this evening. The
system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and
Saturday.

Surface observations during the past several hours indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days. Elsa is forecast to dissipate over the north Atlantic by
Sunday afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New
England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical
cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.

RAINFALL: Across coastal Maine...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
totals up to 6 inches are possible through this evening, which could
result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor to
moderate river flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021

Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa's deep
convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that
a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those
reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC.
Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were
reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby
waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains
45 kt.

Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with
an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward
motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains
embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was
made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates
that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The
GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open
into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in
the NHC forecast.

It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of
Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and
again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT).
Elsa's classification at the time the center crossed the coast will
be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted
that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or
timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed
from the cyclone's center.

Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm
warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy
rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New
England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical
cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 43.0N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky