EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2021071218, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1038W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009, SPAWNINVEST, ep792021 to ep962021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962021 07/12/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 28 34 40 43 43 43 41 40 36 33 29 26
V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 28 34 40 43 43 43 41 40 36 33 29 26
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 24 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 12 11 11 10 9 12 8 8 13 15 18 18 14 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 0 0 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 54 51 48 40 47 35 1 341 322 297 287 277 288 274 281 270 269
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.4 27.7 26.2 25.9 25.2 24.3 23.1 22.1 22.2 22.3
POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 152 151 154 153 154 148 140 124 121 113 105 92 82 83 84
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 72 72 72 69 68 66 64 63 59 57 54 53 50 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -15 -17 -27 -26 -20 -6 -7 -10 -11 -9 0 8 6 8 -8 -7 -9
200 MB DIV -12 -18 -2 2 11 25 79 47 33 -3 -31 -12 -2 -6 -18 -29 -33
700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -3 -1 0 0 2 -3 2 5 2 4 5 5 5 6
LAND (KM) 823 839 836 856 875 932 992 942 937 955 972 1006 1078 1145 1214 1309 1455
LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.1 13.2 14.5 15.8 16.9 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.8 105.9 107.1 108.4 110.9 113.2 114.9 116.3 117.5 118.6 119.7 121.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 14 13 12 9 8 7 6 6 8 8 8 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 37 41 26 18 22 18 16 26 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 33. 35. 35. 34. 32. 30. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 23. 23. 23. 21. 20. 16. 13. 9. 6.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.4 103.8

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 07/12/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.40 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 3.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 6.6% 14.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 2.2% 4.8%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 07/12/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[aspen]

Another cool ENSO EPac season slop storm, coming up.

Hopefully the system behind it will be more interesting.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS peaks this around 3 days before succumbing to colder waters. ECMWF keeps this going longer because its track is more south.

[BYG Jacob]

GFS peaks this around 3 days before succumbing to colder waters. ECMWF keeps this going longer because its track is more south.

Rooting for the GFS to play out. Need MOAR rain

[aspen]

18z GFS has this peak as a 986 mbar Cat 1 in just 78 hours, the most aggressive run yet.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS had more stronger members:

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2021071300, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1049W, 25, 1008, DB

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962021 07/13/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 42 47 48 47 45 42 40 34 29 22 15
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 42 47 48 47 45 42 40 34 29 22 15
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 33 35 36 34 32 29 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 13 14 8 10 13 11 10 11 12 14 19 16 22 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 1 -3 -5 -4 -2 1 0 1 1 2 2 5
SHEAR DIR 55 48 51 50 48 2 337 315 309 315 311 297 265 275 271 269 238
SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.1 26.3 25.9 24.1 23.0 22.2 21.1 21.2 20.9 20.9
POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 151 153 154 154 152 145 126 122 103 91 83 71 72 68 68
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 70 71 71 69 70 67 63 58 55 51 50 48 46 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -19 -27 -30 -25 -19 -11 -10 -15 -17 -4 7 -5 -7 -12 -9 -7 -13
200 MB DIV -24 3 0 7 25 69 67 43 32 5 -23 -12 -8 1 -33 -38 -35
700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 2 -5 0 3 6 4 5 3 5 2 5
LAND (KM) 853 857 866 887 907 980 973 943 938 924 937 961 963 1021 1096 1178 1273
LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.7 15.1 16.4 17.7 18.8 20.0 21.0 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.9 107.1 108.3 109.6 112.0 114.2 115.8 117.2 118.5 119.8 120.9 122.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 13 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 40 26 18 21 26 14 28 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 29. 29. 27. 24. 21. 18. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 23. 22. 20. 17. 15. 9. 4. -3. -10.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 104.9

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.34 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -3.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.8% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 12.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 7.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.7% 4.2% 10.7% 16.4%
Bayesian: 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.4% 7.7% 4.7% 0.4% 0.3% 5.7% 7.9% 5.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 07/13/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro:

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 13 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure, located about 800 miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, is producing a small but concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form in a couple of days while the low moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[BYG Jacob]

No images? Shamfur dispray!

[aspen]

The 06z GFS hurricane model run is showing a good moisture envelope and a low-shear environment for the next two days or so. However, starting early Friday, shear rapidly increases in the mid-levels and shoves dry air into the core, quickly killing the system. The GFS does make it a solid Category 1 hurricane before that happens.

Prior to 06z 7/16, shear in the 200-800 hPa levels remains under 5 kt and under 10 kt in the 600-800 hPa levels. Afterwards, a tongue of dry air quickly works it way into the core as winds in the mid-levels become perpendicular to the low and upper-level flow and raise the 600-800 hPa shear to >15 kt.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks okay but still a trough in all likelihood.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS brings this to 986 mbar.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

13/1130 UTC 12.8N 108.6W T1.0/1.0 96E -- East Pacific

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 13 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 750 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula are showing signs of organization. Although
the circulation of the low is currently elongated, environmental
conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a day or two while the low moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

13/1730 UTC 12.9N 109.4W T1.5/1.5 96E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

This is on the brink of becoming Tropical Storm Felicia.