WPAC: IN-FA - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

98W INVEST 210714 0000 16.0N 138.0E WPAC 15 0

[ElectricStorm]

GFS makes this a significant typhoon


Euro doesn't do much with it.

Already firing some pretty good convection

[Subtrop]

ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZJUL2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.5N 137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 484 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 140343Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING WITH ASSOCIATED AREAS
OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GFS AND NAVGEM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THIS LOCATION FOR THE PAST FOUR
MODEL RUNS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
98W WILL TRACK POLEWARD AS IT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIES
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH DECREASING VWS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS
DUE TO A FAVORABLE CONFIGURATION OF AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN JAPAN
AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

[ElectricStorm]

GFS peaks this at 946mb.
HWRF gets it to 940mb.
This could be a dangerous one if these stronger runs end up verifying.

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

The Euro is still the outlier

[Subtrop]

09W NINE 210716 0600 17.5N 134.6E WPAC 20 1004

[Hayabusa]

00Z Except for control the Euro is now inline with the rest

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.5N 134.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 20 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 659 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 8 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAK CENTRAL
CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN A BROAD, ELONGATED AREA OF DENSE CONVECTION
AND AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER. THE WINDFIELD DEPICTED IN 160130Z ASCAT-B DATA
FURTHER DEPICTS A BROAD (LESS THAN 60 NM) AREA OF CYCLONIC WINDS
WHICH ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINE TRACING FROM THE MSI
LOOP LENDS ONLY OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE WINDS DEPICTED IN THE ASCAT-B DATA, WHICH INCLUDES
5-10 KTS WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND ISOLATED 30-40 KTS
WINDS DISPLACED 30-60 NM FROM THE STORM CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A
T1.5 (25 KTS) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FROM KNES BASED ON ANALYSIS
OF THE OVERALL LACK OF ROBUST CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR TO
THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: LOW
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 09W IS TRACKING THROUGH A COMPLEX STEERING
AND OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT AND APPEARS TO BE NESTED ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, ROUGHLY 600 NM DIAMETER MONSOON
DEPRESSION. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL SLOWLY WESTWARD.
AS A RESULT, THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THIS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OF TD
09W AND LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, TD 09W WILL BEGIN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE STR THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND OUTFLOW ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME, TD 09W WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS OKINAWA, JAPAN AND REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72.
THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120. THERE
IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
DUE TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM ONE ANOTHER IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THIS DIVERGENCE IS
LARGELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A STR
REORIENTATION AND REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED
TO THE NORTH OF TD 09W. THE GFS (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE) AND
NAVGEM SOLUTIONS DEPICT A POLEWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. BOTH OF THESE MODELS BRING THE
FORECAST TRACK NORTH OF OKINAWA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. THE UKMET
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK GUIDANCE PROVIDE MUCH SLOWER TRACK
SPEEDS AND FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS SOUTH OF OKINAWA AT TAU 120.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST BEHIND AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS THUS HEDGED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Subtrop]

WTPQ50 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 19.2N 135.0E POOR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 21.3N 133.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 181200UTC 23.5N 132.0E 130NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 191200UTC 24.9N 129.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 201200UTC 25.8N 126.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 211200UTC 26.6N 122.5E 390NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT

[Hayabusa]

[ElectricStorm]

This looks like it may end up being a dangerous one. I think this will likely be the next Cat 3+ system. Unfortunately there's going to be land in it's path.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Will update this map if 00Z HWRF data arrives.

[mrbagyo]