Who made this latest discussion? I like it
WDPN33 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS/
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 11W IS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM 11W WILL NOT CHANGE INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT WILL
NOT DEVELOP INTO A VIGOROUS STORM AND MAY NOT TOP 50 KNOTS ALONG ITS
TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN, BUT IT WILL GENERATE SOME
RAISED SURF FOR THE OLYMPIC SURFING EVENTS. ITS ORIGIN AT THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A MONSOON GYRE PLACES IT WITHIN THE DIVERGENT REGION
OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD REVEALED BY THE
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS IS TYPICAL OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A TRACK TOWARDS THE TOHOKU REGION OF
JAPAN. BY THE TIME THE STORM REACHES THE COAST, HOWEVER, THERE IS A
WIDE SPREAD IN WHERE THE STORM MAY STRIKE, WITH OUR TWO
CHAMPIONS--ECMWF AND GFS--BEING THE OUTLIERS OF THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS. ECMWF POINTS TO THE NORTHERN CHIBA PENINSULA, WHILE GFS
POINTS TOWARDS MISAWA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS PACKED BETWEEN
THE TWO, WITH THE MEAN POINTING AT SENDAI. THE KEY POINT IN THE
TRACK IS THE 30TH LATITUDE, WHERE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. AS IT DOES THAT, THE CERTAINTY OF WHERE THE
STORM WILL COME ASHORE WILL INCREASE SHARPLY. UNTIL WE SEE THE
STORM ROUND THAT TURN, FORECAST TRACK UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN HIGH.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH EASIER: IN ADDITION TO THE STORM
BEING A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT THROUGH THE DURATION
OF ITS TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEAN. TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK IS NOT EXPECTED
TO EVER REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH.
Maybe Levi Cowan?
