ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

aal902021.dat.gz 2021-07-23 12:40 196

AL, 90, 2021072312, , BEST, 0, 313N, 793W, 20, 1017, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/aid_public/

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6367&y=4787&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[NDG]

Shear is already pushing the convection well to the south of the surface broad circulation.

[GCANE]

Forecasted UL conditions not too conducive for strong development.
On the SE end of an UL High over the CONUS and SW of an UL trof.
Needs some major tower development to blow that away.
I am thinking a TD, maybe TS at best based on what I am currently seeing.

[GCANE]

Strong 925mb vort signature and sitting in the middle of a 355K PV ring.
UL winds showing a nice setup for ventilation.
This could give us a surprise or two.
Its the same old story: need to see how mesoscale events, particularly tower development occurs, to see which way this goes.

[jaxfladude]

But, but, I thought lull meant lull. Oh, I get it, " Homebrew"

[Shell Mound]

This may be 2021's theme: active subtropics, lacklustre MDR. 90L will likely become a TS.

[xironman]

I would think that if anything develops it would be south where the best convection is, the northern end of the trough has too much shear.

[GCANE]

Large area of 4500 CAPE air over N FL with building cumulus clouds.
Likely will set off pop-up storms this afternoon.
Convective debris will then move into 90L overnight to add moisture into the system.
Could see strong convection fire in 90L at DMAX Saturday morning.
Tomorrow could see possible development.

[ElectricStorm]

This may be 2021's theme: active subtropics, lacklustre MDR. 90L will likely become a TS.

It's July... The MDR's not even supposed to be active yet

[Sciencerocks]

I also believe that this has a decent chance at fred.

[InfernoFlameCat]

RISE MY CHILD, RISE! Fear the great Fred.

[AutoPenalti]

I love how these just form literally out of nothing.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This may be 2021's theme: active subtropics, lacklustre MDR. 90L will likely become a TS.

We literally just had a hurricane develop in the MDR.

[captainbarbossa19]

This may be 2021's theme: active subtropics, lacklustre MDR. 90L will likely become a TS.

We literally just had a hurricane develop in the MDR.

Right and historically, any MDR development before August is rare. It is too early to know where the concentration of storms will be this season.

[USTropics]

This may be 2021's theme: active subtropics, lacklustre MDR. 90L will likely become a TS.

We literally just had a hurricane develop in the MDR.

Climatology speaking, the GOM and just off the EC/Bahamas are where we would typically see development during this time period:

[HurricaneBelle]

This may be 2021's theme: active subtropics, lacklustre MDR. 90L will likely become a TS.

We literally just had a hurricane develop in the MDR.

With this in mind, I've adapted a famous 30 Rock meme:

[Steve H.]

A lot of dry air around it at the upper levels. And modest shear. We’ll see how it goes.

[Nimbus]

Not quite stacked yet but there is a circulation with inflow already causing wind shifts on the west coast of Florida.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located off of the southeastern United
States coastline continues to produce a large region of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for additional development and a tropical
depression could form over the next couple of days as the
system meanders over the Gulf Stream, just offshore of the
southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven