EPAC: HILDA - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 90, 2021072900, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1050W, 25, 1007, LO,

[Kingarabian]

They got all the model support in the world. Now to see if they actually develop.

2. Satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure has
formed several hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
continued gradual development, and a tropical depression could form
this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Looks pretty good already with a clear curved band signature. Shear is relaxing as the system nears an upper level anti-cyclone that is currently imposing westerly shear.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902021 07/29/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 44 54 64 68 70 70 68 63 65 64 63
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 44 54 64 68 70 70 68 63 65 64 63
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 30 33 36 37 37 36 34 33 33 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 6 6 8 3 7 12 4 6 10 6 7 5 5 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 2 0 0 3 -2 -4 3 0 1 1 -3 -5 -2 -3
SHEAR DIR 285 323 309 305 317 321 20 122 137 178 223 264 236 283 10 26 57
SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.3 26.4 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.0 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 150 152 152 154 146 139 133 129 130 136 138 140 139 139
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 72 78 80 82 80 76 72 66 61 64 65 65 70
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 16 17 19 20 20 18 20 19 18
850 MB ENV VOR -21 -25 -25 -26 -27 -21 -13 -1 36 45 54 62 72 81 83 66 48
200 MB DIV 59 67 48 57 48 66 113 74 98 61 55 31 54 43 40 1 13
700-850 TADV -1 -5 -5 -4 -5 -8 -6 -2 -5 -10 -5 -8 -5 -8 -5 -5 0
LAND (KM) 739 770 812 850 883 986 1096 1156 1267 1468 1733 2020 2299 2186 2107 2127 2093
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.8 14.8 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.2 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.0 107.0 108.0 109.0 111.3 114.0 116.9 119.9 123.1 126.6 130.1 132.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 13 14 15 15 17 16 16 12 9 5 0 4
HEAT CONTENT 29 17 14 18 31 15 16 9 4 5 0 1 5 4 7 8 7

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 28. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 5. 10. 12. 14. 15. 13. 9. 11. 9. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 39. 43. 45. 45. 43. 38. 40. 39. 38.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 105.0

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 07/29/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.82 5.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 17.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.1% 30.0% 18.0% 9.7% 1.3% 15.8% 26.0% 32.7%
Bayesian: 0.4% 13.1% 3.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2%
Consensus: 2.1% 21.8% 13.5% 3.5% 0.5% 11.7% 14.7% 11.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 07/29/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS brings this north into colder waters due to an interaction with 99E.

[Kingarabian]

2. Satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure is
located several hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and that the associated shower activity is showing signs
of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for continued gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while
the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing shower and
thunderstorm activity with increased signs of organization since
yesterday. Environmental conditions remain conducive for continued
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ29 KNES 291208
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 11.7N

D. 106.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 3/10 BANDING RESULTING TO A DT OF 2.0. THE 24
HR DEVELOPMENT TREND IS DEVELOPING RESULTING MET TO BE 1.0 AND PT TO BE
1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO THE BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902021 07/29/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 32 42 53 62 67 67 69 69 70 67 64 64
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 32 42 53 62 67 67 69 69 70 67 64 64
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 33 35 37 39 42 45 45 44 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 7 5 4 10 15 14 14 13 12 15 8 7 6 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -1 1 4 1 -6 -7 -4 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 327 324 334 342 353 14 95 105 92 92 88 66 66 54 4 356 6
SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.8 27.3 27.2 27.3 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4
POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 150 154 153 152 154 137 136 137 125 125 128 123 124 124 125
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2
700-500 MB RH 64 63 70 73 75 80 83 83 79 76 74 71 69 71 68 67 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 9 12 14 15 17 16 18 19 22 21 19 21
850 MB ENV VOR -29 -35 -32 -33 -27 -10 5 23 21 50 53 59 50 39 25 17 -6
200 MB DIV 32 20 22 23 38 92 64 96 83 92 72 66 74 46 12 15 21
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -7 -7 -6 -2 0 -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 -5
LAND (KM) 826 872 910 956 1008 1153 1178 1239 1355 1507 1662 1796 1887 1944 2019 2075 2141
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.9 13.9 14.8 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.9 108.8 109.8 110.9 113.4 115.9 118.1 120.3 122.6 124.6 126.3 127.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 13 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 5 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 14 16 25 34 21 12 18 4 3 14 0 0 2 0 1 1 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 32. 33. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 13. 15. 13. 15. 15. 16. 14. 11. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 17. 28. 37. 42. 42. 44. 44. 45. 42. 39. 39.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 106.9

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 07/29/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 3.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 3.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -2.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 14.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 2.9% 3.3% 7.8%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.3% 8.2% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% 6.2% 6.0% 2.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 07/29/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS/ECMWF has an interaction with 90E that brings it north. 6z GFS has an interaction with the system behind it that keeps it north. That would make this harder for this to become strong given how low colder waters are this year.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks deserving of a upgrade to me

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1420775364633243654

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually organizing in association
with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest
of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
conducive for continued development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Borderline classifiable.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ29 KNES 291755
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 11.1N

D. 107.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 5/10 BANDING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.5. THE 24 HR DEVELOPMENT TREND IS DEVELOPING
RESULTING MET TO BE 1.5 AND PT TO BE 2.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
DUE TO FT CHANGE OF 1.0 IN 6 HRS REQUIRES 24 HRS SINCE INITIAL T1.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS bringing this north due to an interaction with a disturbance to its east.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF continues to favor interaction with 99E.

[Sciencerocks]