EPAC: IGNACIO - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/91E.html
TXPZ21 KNES 310611
TCSENP
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 31/0530Z

C. 12.2N

D. 105.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR THE SYSTEM ID. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING WAS
OBSERVED AROUND A DEFINED CSC WHICH MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 1.0. THE MET
AND PT AGREE AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 1.0. RECENT ASCAT DATA HAS INDICATED A
MORE DEFINED CENTER FOR THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 91, 2021073106, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1040W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, ep752021 to ep912021,

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 400
miles south-southwest of the coast of southern Mexico. Continued
gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a couple of days before
environmental conditions become less conducive for development.
This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ21 KNES 311204
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 31/1130Z

C. 12.9N

D. 106.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LLCC COULD NOT BE FOUND IN EIR IMAGERY SO POSITION IS BASED
ON CSC. SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE BANDING IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

If Hilda ends up becoming strong, which it looks like it might, I wouldn't think this would be able to do much. I could see maybe a low end TS, but not much more than that...

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ21 KNES 311757
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 31/1730Z

C. 14.3N

D. 107.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM METOP-A SUGGESTED A CLOSED
CIRCULATION BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY, WHICH
SHOWS LINEAR LINES OF CONVECTION PROPOGATING FROM EAST TO WEST WITH LITTLE
OR NO TURNING. SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE BANDING IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912021 07/31/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 34 36 40 46 46 44 38 35 34 31 27 23 18 N/A
V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 34 36 40 46 46 44 38 35 34 31 27 23 18 N/A
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 30 31 30 28 24 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 22 19 21 18 15 15 7 8 5 16 20 21 19 9 4 7 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 6 7 4 0 7 0 2 1 4 1 5 0 -1 -3
SHEAR DIR 40 41 41 35 31 37 43 356 237 218 222 203 205 211 267 300 312
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.0 26.4 24.7 23.2 23.1 23.2 22.5 22.8 23.3 23.2 23.0 22.9
POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 157 156 154 146 130 113 97 96 96 88 89 92 92 91 91
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2
700-500 MB RH 81 82 80 77 76 75 72 69 66 61 58 56 55 53 50 46 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 10 11 11 12 9 7 4 4 6 7 7 7 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR -25 -9 -2 9 14 29 36 34 29 58 74 105 95 72 24 24 8
200 MB DIV 90 83 83 49 32 67 75 30 46 58 44 57 36 22 -1 -6 6
700-850 TADV 0 -6 -10 -7 -2 -11 -14 -17 -4 -5 1 -6 -5 -4 1 8 2
LAND (KM) 596 605 637 694 725 736 841 1032 1246 1544 1883 2048 1830 1715 1662 1605 1547
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.8 18.9 20.0 20.9 21.3 21.3 20.7 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 106.7 108.1 109.3 110.5 111.8 114.5 117.4 120.9 124.7 128.5 132.2 135.2 137.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 14 14 16 18 18 18 16 13 8 3 6 7 9
HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 17 14 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 22. 20. 17. 16. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 0. -3. -7. -7. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 15. 21. 21. 19. 13. 10. 9. 6. 2. -2. -7. -13.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 106.7

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 07/31/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 5.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.04 0.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 13.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.2% 17.2% 4.7% 2.6% 0.4% 4.7% 2.3% 2.2%
Bayesian: 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 12.4% 6.3% 0.9% 0.1% 6.1% 5.4% 0.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 07/31/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

Steadily organizing, beginning to wrap around:

[Yellow Evan]

Considering ASCAT found this closed, might be classifiable.

[aspen]

I think this might be another TC sacrificed to the Almighty Hilda like 9E, but since Hilda’s RI phase has seemingly been cut short and it might never hit hurricane intensity, the fate of this system is up in the air (pun not intended).

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 400 miles southwest of the coast of southern
Mexico are becoming better organized. Continued gradual
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next day or two before environmental
conditions become less conducive for development. This disturbance
is expected to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS has this getting swung into Hilda’s circulation from the north by day 3, making it in agreement with the ECMWF. Not much of a window to deepen.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ21 KNES 010009
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 31/2330Z

C. 15.3N

D. 109.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULAR CLOUD LINES AROUND A CSC THAT IS LESS THAN 1.25
DEGREES FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 1.5 USING THE
SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET AND PT AGREE AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 1.5. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT CSC POSITION IN
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912021 08/01/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 42 45 45 43 39 36 33 29 25 21 17 N/A
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 42 45 45 43 39 36 33 29 25 21 17 N/A
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 31 30 28 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 22 18 15 10 9 6 7 18 14 18 21 19 10 4 9 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 3 3 1 4 5 1 2 0 0 -2 0 0 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 44 43 40 35 31 45 352 197 194 198 202 220 225 237 266 305 313
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.6 25.7 24.1 23.7 23.1 23.7 23.9 23.8 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.8
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 155 149 142 142 123 106 101 95 101 103 101 95 94 96 99
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 76 76 76 72 70 65 62 63 63 61 61 62 61 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 12 13 13 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -13 -4 10 24 22 36 28 23 38 77 90 93 82 65 35 20 6
200 MB DIV 84 60 26 31 32 76 75 16 37 48 73 61 68 38 4 0 21
700-850 TADV -3 -12 -7 -3 -3 -10 -17 3 11 0 0 -8 -7 -6 -1 1 7
LAND (KM) 612 666 724 699 707 791 935 1168 1426 1730 2020 1990 1742 1559 1454 1386 1317
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.9 19.9 20.6 20.8 20.4 19.9 19.3 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 108.5 110.0 111.3 112.6 113.9 116.6 119.7 123.4 126.8 130.0 132.9 135.8 138.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 14 14 14 17 17 15 15 13 13 10 7 3 4 7
HEAT CONTENT 22 18 15 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 18 CX,CY: -14/ 10
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 23. 21. 19. 17. 15. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -15. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 20. 18. 14. 11. 8. 4. -0. -4. -8. -12.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 108.5

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 08/01/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.15 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.9% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 14.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.1% 29.3% 9.2% 5.9% 1.5% 8.5% 1.1% 1.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.4% 16.2% 7.7% 2.0% 0.5% 7.6% 5.0% 0.3%
DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 08/01/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

XPZ21 KNES 011217
TCSENP
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 01/1130Z

C. 16.7N

D. 110.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR MET. CENTER IS REPOSITIONED BASED ON 0908Z
AMSR2 DATA THAT SHOWED THE CENTER NE OF 0530Z FIX. CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER NEAR A VERY LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A
DT OF 2.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON
A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECISE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/0908Z 16.5N 109.5W AMSR2


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and a few thunderstorms persist near a low pressure system
located about 350 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The low is
likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or so
while continuing to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, away
from the coast of Mexico. Development is not likely by late Monday
once the system begins moving over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.