ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 92, 2021080512, , BEST, 0, 115N, 105W, 20, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016, SPAWNINVEST, al772021 to al922021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[zhukm29]

The invest is so deep in Africa it's almost off the map

[InfernoFlameCat]

Can we merge the tropical wave thread with this one?

[Shell Mound]

As mentioned previously, the monsoonal trough will likely ensure that 92L will eject too far north to affect additional land masses beyond the CV islands. The EPS, while imperfect, tends to handle low-level subtleties better than the GEFS. Of the 06Z GEFS, the strongest members suggest a track southwest of the CV islands, whereas the strongest members of the 00Z EPS suggest a counterclockwise veering northward toward the CV islands. The GEFS tends to underestimate the influence of the monsoonal trough on the evolution and track of nascent vortices.

[aspen]

Oh boy, another 92L. This is gonna be a fun ride.

[InfernoFlameCat]

As mentioned previously, the monsoonal trough will likely ensure that 92L will eject too far north to affect additional land masses beyond the CV islands. The EPS, while imperfect, tends to handle low-level subtleties better than the GEFS. Of the 06Z GEFS, the strongest members suggest a track southwest of the CV islands, whereas the strongest members of the 00Z EPS suggest a counterclockwise veering northward toward the CV islands. The GEFS tends to underestimate the influence of the monsoonal trough on the evolution and track of nascent vortices.

The ridge will prevent that. Also why the Nhc has the development region for this system heading west-wnw. Irma may have a little brother here.

[tolakram]

As mentioned previously, the monsoonal trough will likely ensure that 92L will eject too far north to affect additional land masses beyond the CV islands. The EPS, while imperfect, tends to handle low-level subtleties better than the GEFS. Of the 06Z GEFS, the strongest members suggest a track southwest of the CV islands, whereas the strongest members of the 00Z EPS suggest a counterclockwise veering northward toward the CV islands. The GEFS tends to underestimate the influence of the monsoonal trough on the evolution and track of nascent vortices.

The ridge will prevent that. Also why the Nhc has the development region for this system heading west-wnw. Irma may have a little brother here.

Not much of a ridge for a moderate tropical storm. If it stays week or doesn't develop then I *think* it goes west.

[Category5Kaiju]

In terms of track, the wave has not even hit water, so I would be hesistant on saying that it will definitively be OTS or a land-impacter at this point in point. Maybe tomorrow or the day after we'll have a better idea?

[AutoPenalti]

The dreaded 92L.

[SFLcane]

As mentioned previously, the monsoonal trough will likely ensure that 92L will eject too far north to affect additional land masses beyond the CV islands. The EPS, while imperfect, tends to handle low-level subtleties better than the GEFS. Of the 06Z GEFS, the strongest members suggest a track southwest of the CV islands, whereas the strongest members of the 00Z EPS suggest a counterclockwise veering northward toward the CV islands. The GEFS tends to underestimate the influence of the monsoonal trough on the evolution and track of nascent vortices.

The ridge will prevent that. Also why the Nhc has the development region for this system heading west-wnw. Irma may have a little brother here.

There’s 0 comparisons to Irma. Plenty of dry and stable air will hamper development though we might be able To squeeze a short lived TS.

[aspen]

Just because 92L might struggle over the next 5-7 days doesn’t mean that it can’t find a better environment further west if it survives. Storms like Bertha ‘96, Fran, Dean, and Paulette remained at TD/TS intensity for days in the MDR and didn’t reach hurricane intensity until past 55-60W; Fran didn’t even reach TS status until several days after initially forming. In terms of timing and the currently modeled track, Felix ‘95 seems like a decent potential analog, and it also stayed as a weak TS for several days in the MDR. We shouldn’t expect any storm going crazy this east in the MDR until late August at the earliest; storms that reached hurricane intensity east of 35W like Irma and Helene didn’t form until deeper in peak season.

[AlphaToOmega]

This might become the earliest Cape Verde storm since Tropical Storm Dorian (2013).

[Category5Kaiju]

I know there are some comparisons being brought up with Irma, but in actuality, if you really look at it, a 37-hour Cat 5 that also basically remained a major hurricane from near the Cape Verde islands all the way up until Cuba? Not quite sure about that

[InfernoFlameCat]

All I am referring to with Invest 92L and Irma is the track. At least initially.

[wx98]

All I am referring to with Invest 92L and Irma is the track. At least initially.

Irma formed just west of Cape Verde at about 16N. 92L is coming off much lower, around 11-12N. The only similarity is that the wave came off of Africa, which of course is the case with all tropical waves.

[aspen]

All I am referring to with Invest 92L and Irma is the track. At least initially.

Irma formed just west of Cape Verde at about 16N. 92L is coming off much lower, around 11-12N. The only similarity is that the wave came off of Africa, which of course is the case with all tropical waves.

Irma was strange in how quickly it developed and became a major — just two days after making splashdown — while being rather far north. This year’s MDR temps should prevent something like that from happening, and like I said before, it’s too early for a very strong storm in the eastern MDR.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1423314197878878217



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423315671564304390



 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1423307340183445506

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Orange now.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected
to move off the coasts of Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau
later tonight. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde Islands
by late Saturday or early Sunday while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Chemmers]

Think we will see Fred by this time tomorrow