ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

The NHC has a hard time dealing with the monsoon trough. It is still too early to discount the system, though. Also, no code red invest has failed to develop in the Atlantic this year.
Doing some quick math:
50% * 80% * 90% = 36%
64% chance of a depression developing within 5 days

There is no such thing as a “code red invest.” Also, many times invests with high chances of formation through 5 days (and even 48 hours) do not develop. Additionally, I don’t know where you are getting that math problem.

Multiplied the chances of the three disturbances not developing

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be
somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form by the early to middle part of next week while the system moves
west-northwestward to westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[msbee]

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be
somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form by the early to middle part of next week while the system moves
west-northwestward to westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Watching!

[AnnularCane]

Kind of interesting that the percentages have been going down a bit but the TWOs otherwise appear to be pretty much carbon copies of the ones before.

[MetroMike]

I will do more lurking here later once things ramp up, right now its all meh.

[AlphaToOmega]

It is a closed low right now. Only a slight increase in convection is needed to make this a tropical cyclone.

[AlphaToOmega]

Could these MDR systems potentially develop once they reach the Western Atlantic?

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles
south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, some slow development of this system is
possible during the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward to westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Bruh lol finally I don’t know why they made that a red . This is more reasonable

[Sciencerocks]

LLC developing with nice convection!

[AlphaToOmega]

[AlphaToOmega]

Convection increased a bit during diurnal minimum

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a little more than 100 miles south of the
southwesternmost Cabo Verde Islands have increased today. Some
gradual additional development is possible during the next day or
so but strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are likely to
prevent significant development after that time. The system is
expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
possible over portions of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands
tonight and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

I'd go back to 60% with those odds.
1. LLC that looks mostly closed
2. Convection sustaining itself for the past 24 hours

[AlphaToOmega]

I'd go back to 60% with those odds.
1. LLC that looks mostly closed
2. Convection sustaining itself for the past 24 hours

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5034/GbbF6K.gif

GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON all show a closed low. That amount of convection should be enough to classify it as a tropical cyclone.

[IsabelaWeather]

I'd go back to 60% with those odds.
1. LLC that looks mostly closed
2. Convection sustaining itself for the past 24 hours

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5034/GbbF6K.gif

Eyeballing that it looks to be headed north, is it? If it is that will kill this thing...

[wx98]

I'd go back to 60% with those odds.
1. LLC that looks mostly closed
2. Convection sustaining itself for the past 24 hours

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5034/GbbF6K.gif

Eyeballing that it looks to be headed north, is it? If it is that will kill this thing...

Winds at the lower level are out of the south currently, so the low level circulation is being pushed toward Cape Verde. West and north of the islands the steering is toward the west. Upper level winds are predominantly west as well.

[TimSmith]

The NHC has a hard time dealing with the monsoon trough. It is still too early to discount the system, though. Also, no code red invest has failed to develop in the Atlantic this year.
Doing some quick math:
50% * 80% * 90% = 36%
64% chance of a depression developing within 5 days

There is no such thing as a “code red invest.” Also, many times invests with high chances of formation through 5 days (and even 48 hours) do not develop. Additionally, I don’t know where you are getting that math problem.

Multiplied the chances of the three disturbances not developing

I don't think works quite like that as they're not independent events... I'd just go with the highest probability that NHC has at any given time on single storm. As if one develops to a strong storm it generally takes the energy away from other when close, if were on opposite ends of basin different

[AlphaToOmega]

3. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about a hundred miles west of the southwesternmost
Cabo Verde Islands have diminished since yesterday. Strong
upper-level winds and cooler waters are expected to prevent the
development of this system while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Strange that a system that was given a high chance of development ended up flopping in year when conditions seem very favorable for tropical development

[wx98]

This one is dead.

[Visioen]

3. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about a hundred miles west of the southwesternmost
Cabo Verde Islands have diminished since yesterday. Strong
upper-level winds and cooler waters are expected to prevent the
development of this system while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Strange that a system that was given a high chance of development ended up flopping in year when conditions seem very favorable for tropical development

It's not so strange, you were just all-in on the reasoning codes red should develop when conditions are favorable. This is flawed because the conditions are taken into account when designating the code.