ATL: 92L - Models

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922021 08/05/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 28 31 35 38 42 47 50 53 56 60 66
V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 29 32 35 39 43 46 50 55 58 61 64 68 73
V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 26 27 25 26 27 29 30 31 31 32 34 38 43
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 38 38 30 24 21 21 12 6 9 15 18 15 10 9 6 10 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -1 5 8 5 2 6 7 6 5 11 9 7 1 2 2
SHEAR DIR 78 83 86 80 73 62 56 136 198 184 176 178 166 163 204 235 291
SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 146 143 138 130 121 119 115 111 112 110 110 112 113 116 120
ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 146 143 138 130 119 116 111 105 104 101 100 101 103 105 109
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 5 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6
700-500 MB RH 67 67 70 70 67 68 67 66 64 61 60 57 57 57 58 56 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 60 55 58 61 51 55 76 90 99 112 96 88 54 30 12 -7 -24
200 MB DIV 24 31 19 23 28 79 63 51 37 26 -7 25 8 24 -7 -25 -17
700-850 TADV -8 -7 -12 -19 -24 -30 -26 -17 -12 -18 -12 -9 0 3 2 2 1
LAND (KM) -398 -275 -177 -25 22 315 613 948 1274 1563 1807 1957 2056 2139 2158 2159 2128
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.7 14.7 15.6 16.3 16.5 16.4 16.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 10.5 12.3 13.8 15.4 17.0 20.2 23.2 26.3 29.3 32.0 34.3 35.7 36.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 12 9 5 5 5 7 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 22 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 33. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. 40. 46.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 10.5

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/05/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.4% 3.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/05/2021 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 29 32 35 39 43 46 50 55 58 61 64 68 73
18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 25 28 31 35 39 42 46 51 54 57 60 64 69
12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 20 23 26 30 34 37 41 46 49 52 55 59 64
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Models seem pretty useless right now. GFS is getting it caught up in multiple vorticities and the Euro is being the usual negative nancy.

[aspen]

Models seem pretty useless right now. GFS is getting it caught up in multiple vorticities and the Euro is being the usual negative nancy.

Same thing with the 12z GFS run. As soon as 92L attempts to consolidate, it has other waves spin up and create this giant mess that kills them all. I’m not sure how likely that is.

Hopefully the HWRF starts running soon.

[Shell Mound]

The 12Z GFS has trended toward a messier, sheared, monsoonal system that gyrates northward into the CV islands and encounters less conducive conditions.




The 12Z GEFS members have also shifted considerably farther north, in line with earlier EPS suites, so the GEFS as a whole is caving to the EPS.

[AlphaToOmega]

The GFS seems to support the idea of the wave splitting into two tropical storms.

[captainbarbossa19]

The Euro seems to want to kill 92L and develop a secondary area of vorticity. I have seen this pattern before, and the last time I saw it in the models, a major hurricane developed.

[aspen]

The Euro seems to want to kill 92L and develop a secondary area of vorticity. I have seen this pattern before, and the last time I saw it in the models, a major hurricane developed.

Which storm was that?

[captainbarbossa19]

The Euro seems to want to kill 92L and develop a secondary area of vorticity. I have seen this pattern before, and the last time I saw it in the models, a major hurricane developed.

Which storm was that?

I don't remember. There were two areas of vorticity and one became dominant. I believe it did not develop significantly until after passing north of the Caribbean. I will see if I can find which one it was.

[AutoPenalti]

The Euro seems to want to kill 92L and develop a secondary area of vorticity. I have seen this pattern before, and the last time I saw it in the models, a major hurricane developed.

Which storm was that?

I don't remember. There were two areas of vorticity and one became dominant. I believe it did not develop significantly until after passing north of the Caribbean. I will see if I can find which one it was.

Wasn't that Dorian?

[captainbarbossa19]

Which storm was that?

I don't remember. There were two areas of vorticity and one became dominant. I believe it did not develop significantly until after passing north of the Caribbean. I will see if I can find which one it was.

Wasn't that Dorian?

Nope. Just found it. It was Harvey (2017).

[captainbarbossa19]

I don't remember. There were two areas of vorticity and one became dominant. I believe it did not develop significantly until after passing north of the Caribbean. I will see if I can find which one it was.

Wasn't that Dorian?

Nope. Just found it. It was Harvey (2017).

Anyone notice the similarities? This was from the Harvey models forum. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=85&t=118962 Cycloneye posted this image back in 2017.

Future Harvey:



Current System:

[aspen]

Wasn't that Dorian?

Nope. Just found it. It was Harvey (2017).

Anyone notice the similarities? This was from the Harvey models forum. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=85&t=118962 Cycloneye posted this image back in 2017.

Future Harvey:

https://i.imgur.com/I9fqLU1.png

Current System:

https://i.imgur.com/OMizYGz.png

Another similarity with Harvey: models were showing it trying to curve north, although early Harvey runs had it get VERY close to the US and into the Bahamas. Just goes to show that ridging can change quite a bit in the 7-10+ day range.

[Jr0d]

Nope. Just found it. It was Harvey (2017).

Anyone notice the similarities? This was from the Harvey models forum. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=85&t=118962 Cycloneye posted this image back in 2017.

Future Harvey:

https://i.imgur.com/I9fqLU1.png

Current System:

https://i.imgur.com/OMizYGz.png

Another similarity with Harvey: models were showing it trying to curve north, although early Harvey runs had it get VERY close to the US and into the Bahamas. Just goes to show that ridging can change quite a bit in the 7-10+ day range.

The latest GFS takes it all the way to Texas, but as an open wave.

I do think the GFS might be biased to the eastern Pacific and over strengthening storms over there while under estimating 91L and the wave further west.

[captainbarbossa19]

Nope. Just found it. It was Harvey (2017).

Anyone notice the similarities? This was from the Harvey models forum. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=85&t=118962 Cycloneye posted this image back in 2017.

Future Harvey:

https://i.imgur.com/I9fqLU1.png

Current System:

https://i.imgur.com/OMizYGz.png

Another similarity with Harvey: models were showing it trying to curve north, although early Harvey runs had it get VERY close to the US and into the Bahamas. Just goes to show that ridging can change quite a bit in the 7-10+ day range.

More Euro ensemble members are developing this and sending it into the Caribbean instead of OTS now. We will need to see what this wave does when it emerges, but this is becoming an increasing threat to land now.

[aspen]

Anyone notice the similarities? This was from the Harvey models forum. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=85&t=118962 Cycloneye posted this image back in 2017.

Future Harvey:

https://i.imgur.com/I9fqLU1.png

Current System:

https://i.imgur.com/OMizYGz.png

Another similarity with Harvey: models were showing it trying to curve north, although early Harvey runs had it get VERY close to the US and into the Bahamas. Just goes to show that ridging can change quite a bit in the 7-10+ day range.

More Euro ensemble members are developing this and sending it into the Caribbean instead of OTS now. We will need to see what this wave does when it emerges, but this is becoming an increasing threat to land now.

The Caribbean ensemble members on the Euro are from the 0/20 wave ahead of 92L, which this run favors over 92L.

[captainbarbossa19]

Another similarity with Harvey: models were showing it trying to curve north, although early Harvey runs had it get VERY close to the US and into the Bahamas. Just goes to show that ridging can change quite a bit in the 7-10+ day range.

More Euro ensemble members are developing this and sending it into the Caribbean instead of OTS now. We will need to see what this wave does when it emerges, but this is becoming an increasing threat to land now.

The Caribbean ensemble members on the Euro are from the 0/20 wave ahead of 92L, which this run favors over 92L.

Sounds like we will need a lot more time to figure out what is going on. I still think 92L has a much higher chance to organize than the other wave. I think the Euro is a bit confused about these waves. However, I would watch the other wave when it approaches the Bahamas. The MJO is about to switch to a favorable phase so both waves could develop with time, especially since it is getting closer to mid-August.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whatever the case really is, I personally would not be surprised if we find ourselves tracking at least two systems by this weekend into mid-month or so; I think there definitely are some indications that 92L will not be alone

[aspen]

I don’t get what’s going through the GFS’ brain (if it had a brain). The 18z run has a wave in front of 92L become dominant after it makes splashdown, then kills 92L. A wave in front of that new dominant wave also tries to form but is also killed. Just an over complicated setup which doesn’t make much sense because I don’t know if there’s even a wave in that location to become what the GFS shows.

[Woofde]

As is the case usually, until we have a solid center of circulation the global models will struggle and make strange unrealistic solutions.

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922021 08/06/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 42 47 50 53 57 59 59 60 62 64
V (KT) LAND 20 24 25 26 28 33 39 44 49 52 55 59 61 61 62 65 66
V (KT) LGEM 20 23 23 23 23 24 25 26 29 31 31 30 30 30 29 30 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 26 18 18 18 20 12 7 4 12 16 18 20 23 25 24 25 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 5 1 3 2 5 4 9 8 8 4 2 2 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 76 65 59 70 70 66 94 248 227 235 231 229 231 256 246 259 243
SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.9
POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 136 135 135 119 118 113 109 109 111 113 118 124 122 120 122
ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 136 135 135 116 114 109 103 102 102 104 108 114 110 107 106
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 70 71 68 69 69 69 66 63 61 57 52 49 46 46 43 42 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 64 53 52 42 51 69 93 89 77 56 57 46 39 21 -9 -46 -54
200 MB DIV 47 44 57 91 86 55 45 40 30 6 13 11 16 -17 -5 -4 20
700-850 TADV -12 -15 -20 -20 -18 -12 -15 -16 -16 -14 -2 10 10 15 18 10 6
LAND (KM) -47 57 185 346 452 700 969 1255 1543 1793 1973 2111 2241 2358 2434 2472 2302
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.4 15.5 16.5 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.6 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 15.0 16.9 18.5 20.0 21.4 24.0 26.5 29.1 31.7 34.0 35.7 37.2 38.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 16 15 15 13 13 13 12 10 8 9 10 12 11 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 8 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 3 4 8

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 37. 39. 39. 40. 42. 44.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 15.0

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 08/06/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.8% 11.4% 5.9% 2.0% 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.4% 4.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 08/06/2021 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 25 26 28 33 39 44 49 52 55 59 61 61 62 65 66
18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 28 34 39 44 47 50 54 56 56 57 60 61
12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 24 30 35 40 43 46 50 52 52 53 56 57
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT