ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2021080718, , BEST, 0, 133N, 403W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al712021 to al932021,

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/reposito ... 932021.dat

[captainbarbossa19]

Glad to see this finally tagged. We could use the perspective of the hurricane models for this since the GFS is wanting to develop this near the Lesser Antilles.

[ScottNAtlanta]

At least now it will be easier to differentiate between them

[ScottNAtlanta]

The LLC is very robust and looks to be under an upper high. I am just starting to see some convection firing close to the center

[Category5Kaiju]

I have been waiting for this moment. Now it will be easier to have separate discussions about this AOI from 92L or the one near the islands without as much confusion as before.

[captainbarbossa19]

The LLC is very robust and looks to be under an upper high. I am just starting to see some convection firing close to the center

If convection can build and sustain itself over the LLC, it should not take long for this to be a depression.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking we'll see at least a TS out of this. We are getting closer to peak season so all of these waves will have to be watched...

[Category5Kaiju]

It does not look bad right now. I think a TD by late tomorrow should not be ruled out if its vigor sustains

[Sciencerocks]

Decent LLC. It needs convection but once that is done it should become something.

[captainbarbossa19]

It does not look bad right now. I think a TD by late tomorrow should not be ruled out if its vigor sustains

If this becomes a depression, the lull on S2K will end and this thread will be filled with posts negative and positive for its development odds. We might even hear from some pro-mets then.

[AutoPenalti]

This caught my attention more than 92L has, however mid level shear looks to be hitting it.

[captainbarbossa19]

This caught my attention more than 92L has, however mid level shear looks to be hitting it.

The NHC mentions that this will be moving into more favorable conditions in the next few days, so it might be sometime next week when this finally gets going. Nothing may happen either, but since we are rapidly approaching peak-season, climatology will increase its chances.

[AlphaToOmega]

It is surrounded by tropical waves both to its West and to its East, so dry air is not a problem. Wind shear is around 10 knots where Invest 93L is. This low has a very good shot at development.

[Stormybajan]

Decent LLC. It needs convection but once that is done it should become something.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2983/OxIu69.gif

93L has a good circulation and prominent rotation, thats clear, however it needs to start moving more south-west for a better environment. Atleast thats what the gfs is showing, euro does absolutely nothing with none of the disturbances

[Category5Kaiju]

Of all three AOIs now, this looks like it will be in the most favorable spot for quick development imho; so the mid level shear hitting it currently I highly doubt will really impact its future long term in a negative way

[AlphaToOmega]

The analysis from the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models all show a closed low. How much more convection is needed for a tropical cyclone?

[Nimbus]

Coriolis effect was stronger for the eastern wave which I assume is 93L but there is still a wave further west that could spin up near the islands if the current area with high vorticity dries out.

[aspen]

The first SHIPS forecast is quite aggressive, bringing this to 70-75 kt by 120hr. Seems like the environment is solidly favorable, with low to moderate shear, SSTs around 28C coming up, and acceptable levels of atmospheric moisture. Already having a good spin means it’s in a far better starting point than 92L, and it just needs to generate some consistent convection. Let’s see if Dmax is enough to do the trick.

[Category5Kaiju]

The analysis from the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models all show a closed low. How much more convection is needed for a tropical cyclone?

Deep convection and for it to sustain itself for a decent period of time is generally what hurricane trackers look at before determining whether a system is indeed a TC or if it is still a wave or PTC. Now exactly what given criteria must be met, that's something I leave up to the pros who would understand these phenomena much better than I do. I will say that ASCAT is also a pretty reliable and efficient tool that all of us can easily follow and understand

[psyclone]

Very impressive vorticity with this one. that is a large circulation. Just lacking deep convection for now but this looks like a good bet for an eventual number and name.