ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[wwizard]

The first SHIPS forecast is quite aggressive, bringing this to 70-75 kt by 120hr. Seems like the environment is solidly favorable, with low to moderate shear, SSTs around 28C coming up, and acceptable levels of atmospheric moisture. Already having a good spin means it’s in a far better starting point than 92L, and it just needs to generate some consistent convection. Let’s see if Dmax is enough to do the trick.

When is SHIPS ever not aggressive?

[Blown Away]

Nice broad circulation @14N/40W...

[Jr0d]

The NAVGEM is bringing this to the Florida Straits as a storm next weekend, so I am now confident this will NOT impact me in Key West.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/z3ZAOIS.gif

Nice broad circulation @14N/40W...

Very good spin associated with it too; I think with such spin already present once it becomes convectively closed, I think it will become a TC easily

[aspen]

The first SHIPS forecast is quite aggressive, bringing this to 70-75 kt by 120hr. Seems like the environment is solidly favorable, with low to moderate shear, SSTs around 28C coming up, and acceptable levels of atmospheric moisture. Already having a good spin means it’s in a far better starting point than 92L, and it just needs to generate some consistent convection. Let’s see if Dmax is enough to do the trick.

When is SHIPS ever not aggressive?

This first SHIPS run is aggressive in comparison to that for the disturbance that is now Kevin, and IIRC, it’s the most aggressive Atlantic run this season so far. I’m not saying 93L will definitely peak as an 85 kt Cat 2 in a week, but it’s suggesting it has potential if it can get itself together.

[AtlanticWind]

The 18z GFS seems to like the wave in front of 93l

[cycloneye]

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the
tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for gradual development over the next several days, and
this system could become a tropical depression by the middle of next
week. The system is forecast to drift toward the west-southwest or
west during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster
toward the west-northwest by mid-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[AtlanticWind]

I mentioned in the thread on the further west disturbance , I am toying with a system for chances of development
for disturbances based on current sat and models out to 72 hours.

I actually have the other disturbance at 40 percent and 93L at 25 percent at 18z for becoming
at least a TD in the next 72 hours.

Again just something for fun, not to second guess the true experts at the NHC.

P.S. 92L at only 15 %

[cycloneye]

Convection has increased.

[Sciencerocks]

[floridasun78]

i see are area front of 93l fighting with 93l to see who going be td

[AutoPenalti]

DMAX helping.

[captainbarbossa19]

Vorticity is getting there.

[Category5Kaiju]

Vorticity is getting there.

https://i.imgur.com/uLdEixA.gif

https://i.imgur.com/LTSxcii.gif

Looking pretty close to Kevin on the EPAC side I see; just needs a bit more work to do in bundling its structure and then I think we could plausibly have a bona fide TC soon

[Sciencerocks]

[AtlanticWind]

An area of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about a
thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
shower and thunderstorm activity to the southwest of its center.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for gradual development over the next several days, and
this system could become a tropical depression by the middle of this
week. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the
west-southwest or west during the next couple of days, and then move
a little faster toward the west-northwest by mid-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2 AM Tropical Outlook

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=102

First HWRF pretty decent development

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF ends with pretty strong Hurricane.

[MarioProtVI]

HWRF ends with pretty strong Hurricane.

HWRF does poorly with invests especially in this area. I remember it constantly blew up pre-Gonzalo / early stages of TD 7 up to a potent hurricane (one of the reasons why the intensity forecast was so high IIRC) and it ended up peaking at 60-70 mph. HMON doesn’t even develop it so I’d toss this run out until we get a clearer picture or more agreement from other models

[HurricaneAndrew94]

First post here, longtime lurker.. you guys have helped me learn alot throughout the last couple of years so thank you for that and im glad to meet ya'll. 93L looks to have decent spin to it and is trying to build convection(have to see if it persists). We will have to keep an eye on this forsure in my opinion.
Open to criticism my knowledge of these arent too great and my eye is very untrained.. anything i can learn i would love to hear