ATL: 93L - Models

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL932021 08/07/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 33 41 48 53 60 68 73 80 84 84 86
V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 33 41 48 53 60 68 73 80 84 84 59
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 28 32 36 41 47 54 63 71 77 57
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 14 11 15 13 7 9 8 11 7 10 8 12 5 10 12 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 -7 -6 -5 -2 1 1 2
SHEAR DIR 62 59 56 44 48 45 18 351 4 343 11 3 12 320 325 285 317
SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.7 27.4 27.8 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.6 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 124 125 125 125 133 129 134 144 143 146 148 147 148 147 165
ADJ. POT. INT. 113 115 119 121 121 121 130 126 131 143 141 146 147 146 147 144 160
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11
700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 70 67 66 61 57 58 60 59 58 58 58 59 61 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 12
850 MB ENV VOR 20 14 13 7 -4 -8 1 -5 -6 2 11 18 23 24 19 6 -13
200 MB DIV 11 11 5 -12 -24 -4 13 14 10 28 18 9 12 -12 27 5 42
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 2 -7 -2 -3 -5 -6 -1 0 2 4 8 5
LAND (KM) 1580 1532 1477 1412 1361 1229 1120 1009 933 737 510 352 400 345 183 80 -49
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.7 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 40.3 40.9 41.7 42.7 43.7 45.9 48.1 50.5 52.7 54.9 57.2 59.7 62.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 13
HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 7 9 15 16 24 33 50 46 32 44 41 73 34 37

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 36. 40. 41. 43. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 21. 28. 33. 40. 48. 53. 60. 64. 64. 66.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.3 40.3

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 08/07/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.0% 5.7% 3.0% 0.5% 0.2% 2.2% 2.3% 4.9%
Bayesian: 0.3% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0%
Consensus: 0.7% 2.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 2.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 08/07/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 08/07/2021 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 26 33 41 48 53 60 68 73 80 84 84 59
18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 25 32 40 47 52 59 67 72 79 83 83 58
12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 21 28 36 43 48 55 63 68 75 79 79 54
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[captainbarbossa19]

As mentioned in the "Talkin' Tropics" thread, the 12z GFS run wants to develop this and send this to Puerto Rico.

[AlphaToOmega]

[SFLcane]

Could potentially move into the Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS has a Cane into the NE Caribbean and SE Bahamas...

[Blown Away]

12z ICON has a TS into NE Caribbean and Cane into Bahamas...

[Spacecoast]

12z Euro ensembles....
(delete)
edit: wrong system.
correct 93L graphic posted below.....

[Blown Away]

12z Euro keeps 93L a weak TW and through NE Caribbean, Bahamas, and into SFL...

[captainbarbossa19]

Could potentially move into the Caribbean.

https://i.postimg.cc/Jn3NJXdd/9005513-C-CF45-4-CB4-ACAA-2-A007-ABAF5-CC.gif

Hopefully, the 0z models will be more helpful. Maybe the hurricane models will be running by then?

[Blown Away]

12z NAVGEM takes a TS through NE Caribbean, Hispaniola, SE Bahamas, and finishes near SFL/Keys..

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/TQQTyKf.gif

12z NAVGEM takes a TS through NE Caribbean, Hispaniola, SE Bahamas, and finishes near SFL/Keys..

That appears to be the wave ahead of 93L that it is developing though. The models definitely like 93L and the wave ahead more than 92L now.

[Stormybajan]

https://i.imgur.com/XVpD0KN.gif

12z ICON has a TS into NE Caribbean and Cane into Bahamas...

Thats the wave infront of 93L though at 50W I think with the convection...also I think its the same for the navgem

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS happy hour has begun. Let's see if it still likes 93L.

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS happy hour has begun. Let's see if it still likes 93L.

So far, the GFS is favoring now the wave ahead of 93L. The ICON and NAVGEM like this as well. It seems like we are going to need to wait and see which wave becomes more dominant.

[aspen]

Lol the 18z GFS kills off 93L pretty quickly. So much for the “Happy Hour” run.

[captainbarbossa19]

Lol the 18z GFS kills off 93L pretty quickly. So much for the “Happy Hour” run.

No consistency at all. These models are going to be useless until something is there. Even then, they may not help much.

[aspen]

Lol the 18z GFS kills off 93L pretty quickly. So much for the “Happy Hour” run.

No consistency at all. These models are going to be useless until something is there. Even then, they may not help much.

It doesn’t help that both waves are mirror opposites of each other with opposite advantages and disadvantages. 93L has a developed circulation already, but poor convection. The western wave (probably soon to be 94L) has great convection, but still needs to develop a circulation. It’s now just a waiting game to see if any one could become dominant over the other. If 93L cannot generate convection, it’ll fall apart.

[Spacecoast]

https://i.imgur.com/TQQTyKf.gif

12z NAVGEM takes a TS through NE Caribbean, Hispaniola, SE Bahamas, and finishes near SFL/Keys..

That appears to be the wave ahead of 93L that it is developing though. The models definitely like 93L and the wave ahead more than 92L now.

I posted earlier ECMF tracks for the system going into FL, which was the wave ahead of 93L. (I deleted) I apologize.

Here is the correct ECMF 12z tracks for 93L.


ECMF ensembles of still show the system ahead of 93L on the more northern track

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS is much less enthusiastic about this system.

[tolakram]

It still has an area of vorticity moving toward and recurving just before Florida, after passing over the islands. This west first is what I'm looking for, but I have no idea if this is far enough west or not.