ATL: FRED - Models

[dexterlabio]

06z Euro says don't turn your back on Fred.
This is what I have been talking about, if Fred is able to track near or just offshore of W coast of FL conditions will not be that bad for it to strengthen with almost 48 hrs to do so and over very warm waters.

https://i.imgur.com/TlmtNWN.gif

Almost the same model run from the Euro for Elsa showing a 980+ mb cane right before FL landfall.

[Frank P]

The 06z runs of the GFS,ICON, HMON AND HWRF are all west towards the western Pandhandle and all are very weak except the HMON

[robbielyn]

12Z GFS doesn't do much with Fred in FL just rain.

[NDG]

Either the 12z HWRF is running late or it has been put on time out after so many bad inconsistent runs, lol.

[jlauderdal]

Either the 12z HWRF is running late or it has been put on time out after so many bad inconsistent runs, lol.

We get the euro shortly and now we have two entities of importance to the basin...yippeee.

[BobHarlem]

12z hmon likes Gulfport, MS, but as a strong Tropical Storm. Don't think it's worth much since its completely lost for a few days before that.

[NDG]

Either the 12z HWRF is running late or it has been put on time out after so many bad inconsistent runs, lol.

We get the euro shortly and now we have two entities of importance to the basin...yippeee.

Even the Euro should be put on time out, back to a weak system on its latest run. Wake me up in September.

[jhpigott]

Regardless of Fred's future impacts, I'm not real thrilled with the general tracks our ATL tropical systems have taken or look like they will be taking so far this year with Elsa, Fred and future Grace. I know the atmosphere is fluid and these patters are not set in stone. But if this track pattern sets in I don't see how my neck of the woods in SE FL gets by unscathed this hurricane season.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=-72

[tolakram]

12Z HWRF finally ran. It's crazy with center over Cuba, below Cuba, maybe over the pacific. lol Maybe next run.

I'm not even sure where this is!

[CDO62]

12Z HWRF finally ran. It's crazy with center over Cuba, below Cuba, maybe over the pacific. lol Maybe next run.

I'm not even sure where this is!

https://i.imgur.com/Q8cmMoi.png

No wonder it was delayed. They were probably afraid to even release a run like that. lol

[BobHarlem]

12Z HWRF finally ran. It's crazy with center over Cuba, below Cuba, maybe over the pacific. lol Maybe next run.

I'm not even sure where this is!

https://i.imgur.com/Q8cmMoi.png

Lol that's in the East Pacific southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border.

[Nimbus]

Either the 12z HWRF is running late or it has been put on time out after so many bad inconsistent runs, lol.

I think some of these weather models evolved from the old NORAD system. When they hit an algorithmic asymptote they can't resolve they kinda go back to mama and think the Russians are after us with missiles or something.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS same story, unorganized all the way into the panhandle / Alabama.

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF running. Still having issues hanging onto a storm.

[Weatherboy1]

12Z HWRF finally ran. It's crazy with center over Cuba, below Cuba, maybe over the pacific. lol Maybe next run.

I'm not even sure where this is!

https://i.imgur.com/Q8cmMoi.png

No wonder it was delayed. They were probably afraid to even release a run like that. lol

I can, with 85% confidence, say this run won’t verify

[toad strangler]

The hurricane models shouldn’t be running on barely TD sloppy messes like former Fred. They were designed to be utilized with much better structured storms. So…. MEH at whatever they are showing ATM.

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF loses the storm again.

[NDG]

Throw that 18z HWRF out the window.

[gatorcane]

Throw that 18z HWRF out the window.


https://i.imgur.com/qj5gfzd.png

Along with just about every other run it has shown for this system since the beginning. Still waiting on the CAT 2 it showed landfalling in South Florida.

Here is the GFS simulated IR. Weak and somewhat sheared which looks reasonable:

[toad strangler]

Throw that 18z HWRF out the window.


https://i.imgur.com/qj5gfzd.png

Along with just about every other run it has shown for this system since the beginning. Still waiting on the CAT 2 it showed landfalling in South Florida.

Here is the GFS simulated IR. Weak and sheared which looks reasonable:

https://i.postimg.cc/KYW6B1Zz/gfs-ir-watl-fh1-73.gif

The HWRF isn’t a global model like the just as flawed GFS. It’s a tropical cyclone specific model and isn’t being used correctly on a naked or semi naked swirl.