ATL: FRED - Models

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#521 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:49 pm

toad strangler wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
NDG wrote:Throw that 18z HWRF out the window.


https://i.imgur.com/qj5gfzd.png


Along with just about every other run it has shown for this system since the beginning. Still waiting on the CAT 2 it showed landfalling in South Florida.

Here is the GFS simulated IR. Weak and sheared which looks reasonable:

https://i.postimg.cc/KYW6B1Zz/gfs-ir-watl-fh1-73.gif


The HWRF isn’t a global model like the just as flawed GFS. It’s a tropical cyclone specific model and isn’t being used correctly on a naked or semi naked swirl.


What do you mean? I expect a model in 2021 to be able to follow a weak low pressure system. It's not rocket science. Either the low is there, or it's not. If it's there I expect the model to be able to track it.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#522 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:36 am

tolakram wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Along with just about every other run it has shown for this system since the beginning. Still waiting on the CAT 2 it showed landfalling in South Florida.

Here is the GFS simulated IR. Weak and sheared which looks reasonable:

https://i.postimg.cc/KYW6B1Zz/gfs-ir-watl-fh1-73.gif


The HWRF isn’t a global model like the just as flawed GFS. It’s a tropical cyclone specific model and isn’t being used correctly on a naked or semi naked swirl.


What do you mean? I expect a model in 2021 to be able to follow a weak low pressure system. It's not rocket science. Either the low is there, or it's not. If it's there I expect the model to be able to track it.


Weren't the hurricane models designed specifically to track cyclones post genesis? Am I wrong? That's how I always understood the reasoning for them.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#523 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:15 am

toad strangler wrote:
tolakram wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
The HWRF isn’t a global model like the just as flawed GFS. It’s a tropical cyclone specific model and isn’t being used correctly on a naked or semi naked swirl.


What do you mean? I expect a model in 2021 to be able to follow a weak low pressure system. It's not rocket science. Either the low is there, or it's not. If it's there I expect the model to be able to track it.


Weren't the hurricane models designed specifically to track cyclones post genesis? Am I wrong? That's how I always understood the reasoning for them.


Fred is a depression, it is post genesis. Now if Fred falls apart today then all hail the HWRF for finally getting something right!
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#524 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:16 am

Somehow the 6z hmon gets it to Hurricane Strength west of Tampa Sunday afternoon.

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#525 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:24 am

Well, I don't believe it, but (I'm a broken record here) I'm still looking for in close development as conditions are suppose to improve.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#526 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:45 am

HMON 06z run has a 882mg cane hitting the PC Panhandle general area on Monday… if you can believe it..
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#527 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:54 am

Frank P wrote:HMON 06z run has a 882mg cane hitting the PC Panhandle general area on Monday… if you can believe it..

I’ve always believed a cat 1 is never off the table. Storms taking this track in August have done that last minute many times.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#528 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:59 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Frank P wrote:HMON 06z run has a 882mg cane hitting the PC Panhandle general area on Monday… if you can believe it..

I’ve always believed a cat 1 is never off the table. Storms taking this track in August have done that last minute many times.

Be that as it may the HWRF has a weak 1007mb system on the coast of Alabama for Tuesday… sure a lot can and does happen, I am not ruling out anything… especially as we are in mid August…
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#529 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 13, 2021 10:18 am

6Z Euro
Image
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#530 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:00 am

12Z GFS showing center reforming north now.

Image
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#531 Postby crimi481 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:05 am

Reforming N and E?
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#532 Postby Woofde » Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:04 pm

Both the HMON and HWRF show Fred jumping below Western Cuba before then heading North. This matchs up pretty well with current Satellite imagery.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#533 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:42 pm

The Icon model seems most reasonable to me with what we currently seeing evolve, can someone post the UKmet?
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#534 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:44 pm

12z HMON low end cat 2 hit late Monday night.
Image

HWRF is a little east of it, but just a TS
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#535 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:52 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Frank P wrote:HMON 06z run has a 882mg cane hitting the PC Panhandle general area on Monday… if you can believe it..

I’ve always believed a cat 1 is never off the table. Storms taking this track in August have done that last minute many times.

So how much do you really believe that we will see a cat 1? :D
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#536 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:57 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Frank P wrote:HMON 06z run has a 882mg cane hitting the PC Panhandle general area on Monday… if you can believe it..

I’ve always believed a cat 1 is never off the table. Storms taking this track in August have done that last minute many times.

So how much do you really believe that we will see a cat 1? :D

I feel like it has a 20-30% chance of happening. Less likely than a TS, but not an impossible outcome.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#537 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:08 pm

12Z Euro

Image
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#538 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:14 pm

tolakram wrote:12Z Euro

https://i.imgur.com/PI4fqjZ.png


95L taking the northerly route, watch out if that verifies
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#539 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:18 pm

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#540 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:42 pm

.Image

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