ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[otowntiger]

West eyewall destruction at Cocodrie just as bad as east...

Textbook high end category 4 wind and surge destruction...Note straight wind destruction on structures above surge:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYYtrx5nmJA

wow! Looks like a giant tornado passed thru there!

[talkinggoat]

Analysis of Models? Which models were the most accurate in terms of timing, intensity and location, both separately and alone. I find the Canadian, although not the first to predict the general area, was the first to predict a landfall near port Fourchon, maintained the general area and was the most accurate in timing, overall. It completely failed to predict the intensity, however. The GFS was the first to predict a Louisiana landfall but wobbled between Vermillion bay and Fourchon. The Euro was lost, pretty much up to the end and none of the major Global models predicted the pressure correctly. I can't go back on Tropical Tidbits long enough to see what the HWRF and HMON predicted.

[IcyTundra]

Analysis of Models? Which models were the most accurate in terms of timing, intensity and location, both separately and alone. I find the Canadian, although not the first to predict the general area, was the first to predict a landfall near port Fourchon, maintained the general area and was the most accurate in timing, overall. It completely failed to predict the intensity, however. The GFS was the first to predict a Louisiana landfall but wobbled between Vermillion bay and Fourchon. The Euro was lost, pretty much up to the end and none of the major Global models predicted the pressure correctly. I can't go back on Tropical Tidbits long enough to see what the HWRF and HMON predicted.

Euro was actually the first major model to show a Louisana landfall.

12Z Euro run on Tuesday, August 24th


12Z GFS on Tuesday, August 24th


12Z CMC on Tuesday, August 24th

[InfernoFlameCat]

Good riddance, Ida. You're heading to one place only: the . Won't be seeing you in 2027!

Lol Ida is still a depression even though best track suggested otherwise.

[FireRat]

On a good note, at least so far, there seems to have been very few deaths during hurricane Ida. 2 so far, does anyone know just how populated the region worst hit by the surge and Cat 4 winds was? Perhaps this is a result of very successful evacuation & rescue operations, or on the contrary limited access to the worst hit areas? Time will tell but so far this seems to be a silver lining, maybe Ida was more about material destruction but with a low death toll instead, hopefully.

Usually, deaths post-hurricane are heart attacks during the cleanup, carbon monoxide poisoning, and electrocution. However, walking around floodwaters is never a good idea but plenty of peeps do it. This guy was attacked by an alligator and as alligators like to do, they take their prey and leave the scene.

https://www.wwltv.com/article/weather/h ... 56cf33a02c

Absolutely! My cousin died about 8 days after Michael when he was trying to cut down a half fallen tree by himself. There were a lot of deaths in Bay County in the days after Michael hit unfortunately. I hope people are careful after Ida and avoid the fatal mistakes that are too common after hurricane disasters.

Oh wow, sorry about your cousin TallyTracker
That really is sad, and goes to show how dangerous the aftermath can be as well. Jlauderdal that story about the gator is nuts, that poor fella, dang.

[kevin]

This has to be one longest lingering tropical systems after final landfall in recent times right? It's been like 3 days since landfall and somehow Ida is still a tropical depression. Can't recall the last time something like that happened.

[NDG]

Analysis of Models? Which models were the most accurate in terms of timing, intensity and location, both separately and alone. I find the Canadian, although not the first to predict the general area, was the first to predict a landfall near port Fourchon, maintained the general area and was the most accurate in timing, overall. It completely failed to predict the intensity, however. The GFS was the first to predict a Louisiana landfall but wobbled between Vermillion bay and Fourchon. The Euro was lost, pretty much up to the end and none of the major Global models predicted the pressure correctly. I can't go back on Tropical Tidbits long enough to see what the HWRF and HMON predicted.

Euro was actually the first major model to show a Louisana landfall.

12Z Euro run on Tuesday, August 24th
https://i.ibb.co/MNxFpkx/ecmwf-z500-mslp-watl-fh72-168.gif

12Z GFS on Tuesday, August 24th
https://i.imgur.com/YQaNxdX.png

12Z CMC on Tuesday, August 24th
https://i.ibb.co/gD19fXD/gem-z500-mslp-watl-fh66-156.gif

Yes, the Euro was the first global to sniff a more northerly track into LA. I believe the ICON was also right along with the Euro or shortly after.
After the other global models latched on, the Euro became too west biased, showing landfall between Morgan City and Lafayette, the ICON also went along with the Euro at one time showing landfall west of Lafayette.
The Canadian was right biased, landfall near Grand Isle up straight to Nola but at the end it did not do too bad with its consistency that it was going to make landfall on the right side of the consensus.
The GFS in the shorter term did better than the Euro not only in track but in timing. I remember the GFS being dismissed because it was showing landfall around noon on Monday when the Euro was showing early Tuesday morning to late Monday evening.
The HWRF and HMON were left biased run after run.
HMON was horrible with the strength forecast.

[NDG]

Whoever thought damage was not too bad in Grand Isle, think again.

 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1432942904444551173




 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1433040041664782337

[tolakram]

Analysis of Models? Which models were the most accurate in terms of timing, intensity and location, both separately and alone. I find the Canadian, although not the first to predict the general area, was the first to predict a landfall near port Fourchon, maintained the general area and was the most accurate in timing, overall. It completely failed to predict the intensity, however. The GFS was the first to predict a Louisiana landfall but wobbled between Vermillion bay and Fourchon. The Euro was lost, pretty much up to the end and none of the major Global models predicted the pressure correctly. I can't go back on Tropical Tidbits long enough to see what the HWRF and HMON predicted.

Euro was actually the first major model to show a Louisana landfall.

12Z Euro run on Tuesday, August 24th
https://i.ibb.co/MNxFpkx/ecmwf-z500-mslp-watl-fh72-168.gif

12Z GFS on Tuesday, August 24th
https://i.imgur.com/YQaNxdX.png

12Z CMC on Tuesday, August 24th
https://i.ibb.co/gD19fXD/gem-z500-mslp-watl-fh66-156.gif

There is a models thread for this.

[TallyTracker]

Whoever thought damage was not too bad in Grand Isle, think again.

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1432942904444551173?s=21

https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1433040041664782337?s=21

This is so heartbreaking to see! I know so many people that went through this with Michael. I still haven’t heard if my cousin has a house to return to in Westwego. Praying for everyone impacted!

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1432309205902495750



 https://twitter.com/plustssn/status/1432209000536240130



 https://twitter.com/plustssn/status/1432209009461891076

[TheDreamTraveler]

My town is forecast to get 5-7 inches of rain today from Ida...also a huge threat of loss of life due to all the flash flooding. Hopefully it doesn't add to Ida's death toll. Most of PA is getting smashed from the rain currently. Later today we're going to have 1-2 inch per hour rates for a few hours at least

I've been outside and everything is already flooded because the ground was already super saturated from a wet summer and the remnants of Fred and Henri hitting

[AlphaToOmega]

Ida is officially a remnant low.

[SecondBreakfast]

Good thing the Susquehanna is running low currently for Pennsylvania’s sake, but I’m worried about flash flooding in NNJ/NYC/LI. Some of the local storm chasers are talking about tornado threat overnight which is…not my favorite sleeping weather.

Raritan River is expecting major flooding, and the smaller streams are going to be a mess.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... n4&wfo=phi

[Blinhart]

Ida is officially a remnant low.

But I'm sure she can still come back to life once she gets offshore.

[tolakram]

Excellent work by HurricaneTrack, shared with us. Very early analysis: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=92&t=122206&p=2938334#p2938334

[aspen]

It’s a deluge here in SW CT, and TWC is forecasting an additional 3-5 inches of rain overnight. Ida’s remnants are even more impactful than Henri.

[Sciencerocks]

[SecondBreakfast]

Tornado emergency in Trenton. Heavy damage from a violent tornado on the ground.

https://twitter.com/ywnreporter/status/ ... 51265?s=21

[ElectricStorm]

Tornado emergency for Trenton, NJ. Wow