WPAC: CHANTHU - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ29 KNES 061226
TCSWNP

A. 19W (NONAME)

B. 06/1130Z

C. 14.8N

D. 138.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 7/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF
3.0. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A ROBUST CDO FEATURE OCCURRING OVER THE LLCC
AS SEEN ON EIR AND SW IMAGERY. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY
RESULTING MET AND PT TO BE 2.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO BANDING FEATURES
NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

Another storm underestimated by the JTWC/JMA.

[ElectricStorm]

This one has some potential. 95kts at the end of the JTWC forecast and it already looks pretty good. Have to watch for a strong typhoon out of this.

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to TS

19W NINETEEN 210906 1800 15.4N 137.4E WPAC 35 1002

[Hayabusa]

There's no data for HWRF 12Z...

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to TS

19W NINETEEN 210906 1800 15.4N 137.4E WPAC 35 1002

They revised now up to 45 knots!

19W NINETEEN 210906 1800 15.3N 137.4E WPAC 45 997

[aspen]

This might be the first major hurricane in the WPac since Surigae all the way back in April. Has any WPac season had such a massive gap between majors like this?

[Hayabusa]

After three model runs of being weak, GFS 18Z is back to intensifying 19W.

[ElectricStorm]

105kt peak and 100kt Taiwan landfall on the new JTWC forecast. Looks like this one might be a serious problem.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ29 KNES 070004
TCSWNP

A. 19W (NONAME)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 15.6N

D. 136.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 10.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET IS EQUAL
TO 3.5 AND PT IS EQUAL TO 4.0 BASED ON A DEVELOPING RAPIDLY TREND IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

Not sure I agree with the fix but there’s justification to call this a typhoon.

[dexterlabio]

This might be the first major hurricane in the WPac since Surigae all the way back in April. Has any WPac season had such a massive gap between majors like this?

I would say 2019...Wutip (Feb) followed by Lekima (August), almost 6months gap.

[Hayabusa]

Up to 50 knots, hard to think JMA will not name this 00Z.

19W NINETEEN 210907 0000 15.6N 136.6E WPAC 50 995

[Yellow Evan]

Why does the JTWC always give so much weight to their own Dvorak estimates and so little to SAB?

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ51 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 15.7N 136.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 16.3N 134.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 090000UTC 17.1N 130.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 100000UTC 19.1N 125.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 110000UTC 20.9N 122.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 120000UTC 22.2N 120.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

Compared to previous runs, ensemble now features a more flat track with some WSW track, watch for more adjustments.

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

HWRF is also trending south

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS peaks this at 939mb before hitting S Taiwan. HWRF is running and it's at 930mb at hour 87.

This thing's got some serious potential and I'm getting concerned

[mrbagyo]

0z GFS peaks this at 939mb before hitting S Taiwan. HWRF is running and it's at 930mb at hour 87.

This thing's got some serious potential and I'm getting concerned

HWRF - 928hpa (almost STY) at 90hrs

Chanthu is now ready for takeoff