WPAC: CHANTHU - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

19W CHANTHU 210907 0600 16.1N 135.7E WPAC 65 985

[Yellow Evan]

19W CHANTHU <a href="tel:210907 0600">210907 0600</a> 16.1N 135.7E WPAC 65 985

Might be too low but it’s at least a reasonable estimate in line with SAB Dvorak numbers.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro much weaker compared to the past few runs. STY drought might continue.

[doomhaMwx]

It seems some influence from Conson makes Chanthu much weaker on the 00Z Euro run. With how organized/strong Chanthu is now, I doubt that will happen.

In a few days, we may be looking at the most impressive TY since Surigae in April.

[aspen]

Has this developed a pinhole core?

The 06z HWRF has the fastest intensification I’ve ever seen: a 943mb/120kt Cat 4 by 21z today. However, it suddenly halts by tomorrow morning, possibly due to an EWRC.

[aspen]

I'm getting Delta vibes from this.

[mrbagyo]

Chanthu is clearly bombing right now

[doomhaMwx]

06Z HWRF is even more aggressive than its previous run, getting Chanthu well into category 4 territory in 12-24hrs before an EWRC commences.

[Hayabusa]

Hmmm

[aspen]

A small, compact eyewall on a 9z microwave pass, but there’s a large band that could easily wrap around and start the EWRC that the HWRF forecasts.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ29 KNES 071245
TCSWNP

A. 19W (CHANTHU)

B. 07/1130Z

C. 16.3N

D. 134.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 12/10 WHITE BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.0. THE
0940Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MW PASS REVEALS A ROBUST BANDING FEATURE THAT ALSO
RESULTED IN 12/10 BANDING. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LLCC
HAS COOLED TO CMG INDICATING THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING. ADDITIONALLY, THE
BANDING FEATURE CAN BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL ON THE 37 GHZ 0940Z
SSMIS MW IMAGERY INDICATING A TIGHTENING CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. THE
24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. MET AND PT ARE 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

This should be T4.5 based on embedded center for one. Secondly just after this frame, this storm began to develop a pinhole eye while embedded in intense convection and is bombing out now. Some agency needs to request a special Dvorak fix.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN11 PGTW 071214

A. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU)

B. 07/1150Z

C. 16.30N

D. 134.62E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/0805Z 16.12N 135.22E GPMI


RHOADES

Any particular reason for using PT here?

[aspen]

For some reason, ADT isn’t focusing on the eye, and is as a result stuck at 55 kt. Chanthu could easily be a low end Cat 2 by now.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.5 instantaneous DT. Considering the eye size, that likely isn’t too far off.

[Hayabusa]

This one has lots of potential to become something it's up to Chanthu really.

[Yellow Evan]

T6.5. This might be stronger than Larry has ever been.

[aspen]

I have a feeling we’ll be looking at a T#7.0 Cat 1 very soon.

[Hayabusa]

For some reason, ADT isn’t focusing on the eye, and is as a result stuck at 55 kt. Chanthu could easily be a low end Cat 2 by now.

I wonder too, even I can see an eye without zooming in.

[ElectricStorm]

JTWC back at it again
Ain't no way this is only 70kts

[Iceresistance]

JTWC back at it again
Ain't no way this is only 70kts

Tiny systems with Pinhole eyes are very hard to forecast . . .