EPAC: PAMELA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Doesn’t inspire confidence.

[aspen]

HWRF has an asymmetric, sheared core. So much for exceptionally favorable conditions that would favor rapid intensification.

[skyline385]

I have always been skeptical and unconvinced that Pamela will reach the heights of Kenna, Rick, Patricia, and Willa. The problem with these comparisons is that those hurricanes formed in El Nino years so they had a very favorable environment. Pamela is in a more borderline La Nina environment. So I have my doubts Pamela will even reach Category 4 in my opinion. I'm thinking Cat 3 at most.

Pamela could still prove me wrong though so I guess we'll see.

Cat 3 is my bet as well, kinda weird how a lot of people here are bearish on Pamela when the NHC seems to be confident of a major hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Convective burst getting stuck again after rotating upshear. This has the look of something that reaches around 90 knots at this point.

[aspen]

Convective burst getting stuck again after rotating upshear. This has the look of something that reaches around 90 knots at this point.

90 kt is generous at this point. This looks like Guillermo, another failed major. I will be extremely surprised if Pamela has any decent convection over the LLC tomorrow morning, or if it is still 60 kt.

[Yellow Evan]

Convective burst getting stuck again after rotating upshear. This has the look of something that reaches around 90 knots at this point.

90 kt is generous at this point. This looks like Guillermo, another failed major. I will be extremely surprised if Pamela has any decent convection over the LLC tomorrow morning, or if it is still 60 kt.

Calm down lol.

[aspen]

Convective burst getting stuck again after rotating upshear. This has the look of something that reaches around 90 knots at this point.

90 kt is generous at this point. This looks like Guillermo, another failed major. I will be extremely surprised if Pamela has any decent convection over the LLC tomorrow morning, or if it is still 60 kt.

Calm down lol.

I wouldn’t be downcasting this much if the current mid level shear was forecast to lower. It doesn’t seem like it will. But I have searched for the perfect “eating crow” meme to post if Pamela makes a comeback lol.

[AlphaToOmega]

90 kt is generous at this point. This looks like Guillermo, another failed major. I will be extremely surprised if Pamela has any decent convection over the LLC tomorrow morning, or if it is still 60 kt.

Calm down lol.

I wouldn’t be downcasting this much if the current mid level shear was forecast to lower. It doesn’t seem like it will. But I have searched for the perfect “eating crow” meme to post if Pamela makes a comeback lol.

Every model intensifies Pamela into a hurricane.

[Ubuntwo]

Well it is right around diurnal minimum. Not too uncommon for TCs to suck in some dry air as they convectively expand (like Pamela did last night). Several EPAC systems have done the same thing this year, but because Pamela was just a TS at that point recovery should not be a huge deal. I'm thinking a cat 2-3 is quite likely. One structural advantage of the shear is an ERC can mostly be ruled out.

[aspen]

Calm down lol.

I wouldn’t be downcasting this much if the current mid level shear was forecast to lower. It doesn’t seem like it will. But I have searched for the perfect “eating crow” meme to post if Pamela makes a comeback lol.

Every model intensifies Pamela into a hurricane.
https://i.postimg.cc/PJ9VMXJq/16-E-intensity-latest.png

I’m not saying it won’t be a hurricane — I’m just saying a Cat 2 is probably on the high side now, which is better news for Mexico (although even a Cat 1 is still capable of producing isolated 90+ mph wind gusts and should never be written off).

[Yellow Evan]

90 kt is generous at this point. This looks like Guillermo, another failed major. I will be extremely surprised if Pamela has any decent convection over the LLC tomorrow morning, or if it is still 60 kt.

Calm down lol.

I wouldn’t be downcasting this much if the current mid level shear was forecast to lower. It doesn’t seem like it will. But I have searched for the perfect “eating crow” meme to post if Pamela makes a comeback lol.

With all due respect, why are you getting so worked up over this? This isn’t the first tropical cyclone where the GFS and models that whose data were fed into it were too aggressive, and I’m sure it won’t be the last either.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ29 KNES 112354
TCSENP

A. 16E (PAMELA)

B. 11/2330Z

C. 17.6N

D. 109.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 7/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF
3.0. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS NEW CONVECTION SPROUTING NEAR SYSTEM LLCC ON
THE NE QUADRANT AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING. MET AND PT ARE 3.5. FT IS
BASED ON MET DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/2007Z 17.4N 108.7W AMSR2


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

Source of the shear is probably the subtropical jet that’s unusually southward for this time of year.

[aspen]

Calm down lol.

I wouldn’t be downcasting this much if the current mid level shear was forecast to lower. It doesn’t seem like it will. But I have searched for the perfect “eating crow” meme to post if Pamela makes a comeback lol.

With all due respect, why are you getting so worked up over this? This isn’t the first tropical cyclone where the GFS and models that whose data were fed into it were too aggressive, and I’m sure it won’t be the last either.

I apologize if I’ve come off that way. There’s just nothing else to talk about lol. Also, I have been quite surprised by this bust due to it being very different in track, setup, etc from the other busts of 2020 and 2021 despite some factors being more favorable. In other words, the same factors that led to Cristina, Guillermo, and Kevin busting don’t exactly apply to Pamela.

[Ubuntwo]

I apologize if I’ve come off that way. There’s just nothing else to talk about lol. Also, I have been quite surprised by this bust due to it being very different in track, setup, etc from the other busts of 2020 and 2021 despite some factors being more favorable. In other words, the same factors that led to Cristina, Guillermo, and Kevin busting don’t exactly apply to Pamela.

Hmm... bust seems like a strong word. It is well overperforming the Euro's expectations

[Yellow Evan]

I wouldn’t be downcasting this much if the current mid level shear was forecast to lower. It doesn’t seem like it will. But I have searched for the perfect “eating crow” meme to post if Pamela makes a comeback lol.

With all due respect, why are you getting so worked up over this? This isn’t the first tropical cyclone where the GFS and models that whose data were fed into it were too aggressive, and I’m sure it won’t be the last either.

I apologize if I’ve come off that way. There’s just nothing else to talk about lol. Also, I have been quite surprised by this bust due to it being very different in track, setup, etc from the other busts of 2020 and 2021 despite some factors being more favorable. In other words, the same factors that led to Cristina, Guillermo, and Kevin busting don’t exactly apply to Pamela.

Go back and look at your posts (I realize you probably don’t realize this lol because it’s hard to sometimes). You had noted the potential for this busting several times prior to today so at least judging by your posts on here, you shouldn’t be that surprised.

[aspen]

With all due respect, why are you getting so worked up over this? This isn’t the first tropical cyclone where the GFS and models that whose data were fed into it were too aggressive, and I’m sure it won’t be the last either.

I apologize if I’ve come off that way. There’s just nothing else to talk about lol. Also, I have been quite surprised by this bust due to it being very different in track, setup, etc from the other busts of 2020 and 2021 despite some factors being more favorable. In other words, the same factors that led to Cristina, Guillermo, and Kevin busting don’t exactly apply to Pamela.

Go back and look at your posts (I realize you probably don’t realize this lol because it’s hard to sometimes). You had noted the potential for this busting several times prior to today so at least judging by your posts on here, you shouldn’t be that surprised.

Yeah I did think there was the potential for it busting. I’m surprised that actually materialized, because there have been plenty of storms I’ve tracked on this forum that look bad at some point very early on in their lives only to do a 180, and the ceiling for Pamela did appear very high. I did give it the benefit of the doubt in a post yesterday due to it being a typical ugly <24 hour old storm with the potential to improve, but that sneaky -ENSO mid-level shear sure seems to like to make itself known.

It would seem that this is a much better scenario for Mexico, but in the back of my head there’s a bit of a concern about this waiting until the last 12-18 hours to bomb out like Grace did, finding a way to become a major at landfall despite plenty of issues earlier on. So, reflecting on it, perhaps I shouldn’t be downcasting despite Pamela’s garbage status today, because there’s always the possibility of it making a quick and difficult-to-forecast recovery that could catch a lot of people off guard. That’s also why the NHC will likely keep the landfall peak at around 90-100 kt for another few advisories until there’s a clearer consensus that Pamela is unable to recover and reach MH intensity.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Pamela continues to be affected by some modest northwesterly
mid-level shear that has caused the low-level center to be located
near the northwestern edge of the deep convection. This was evident
in an earlier AMSR2 microwave image that arrived shortly after the
release of the previous NHC advisory package. Recent objective and
subjective Dvorak T-numbers still support an intensity of around
60 kt, and that value is maintained as the initial wind speed for
this advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to fly into the storm late tomorrow morning and early
afternoon to better provide a better assessment of Pamela's
structure, intensity, and wind field.

The guidance suggests that the shear that has been plaguing Pamela
should relax during the next 12-24 hours, allowing for
strengthening. Nearly all of the statistical and dynamical model
intensity guidance calls for strengthening, but they have trended
toward a lower peak intensity primarily due to the fact that Pamela
so far has not strengthened as much as expected. The NHC intensity
forecast again calls for Pamela to become a hurricane overnight or
early Tuesday, and shows the system nearing major hurricane strength
before it reaches the coast of mainland Mexico early Wednesday.
Although the official forecast is at the high end of the intensity
guidance, it is supported by the GFS model which has been consistent
in significantly deepening Pamela during the cyclone's approach to
Mexico on Tuesday and Tuesday night. After landfall, rapid weakening
should occur as the system moves over the mountainous terrain of
west-central Mexico, and Pamela is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low or dissipate by Thursday.

Pamela is moving north-northwestward or 335/7 kt. The track
forecast philosophy again remains unchanged this advisory. The
cyclone is forecast to turn northward tonight as it reaches the
western portion of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. A faster
northeastward motion is expected by late Tuesday as Pamela recurves
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough moving into northwestern
Mexico. The track guidance is in very good agreement on the overall
evolution of the steering pattern, but there are still some
differences in how quickly Pamela accelerates northeastward on
Tuesday. Therefore, the NHC forecast is once again close to the
various multi-model consensus aids.

Although the cyclone could dissipate over the mountainous terrain
of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are
likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on
Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United
States late Wednesday or Thursday.

Key Messages:

1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it
reaches the southwestern coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and
life- threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
storm Watch area.

3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the
Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern
portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will
pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

4. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late
Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 17.9N 108.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 19.2N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 23.1N 106.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 26.1N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 14/1200Z 29.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Teban54]

Extremely cold cloud tops have returned:

[Yellow Evan]

The problem is the convective burst is just stuck and not wrapping around.