EPAC: RICK - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#201 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...RICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 102.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings
for the coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 102.5 West. Rick is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A generally
northward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of Rick will move farther inland over
Mexico today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected this afternoon and
evening, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous
terrain of Mexico tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#202 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:03 pm

Shell Mound wrote:What is the strongest recorded landfall on Mexico’s Pacific coastline during La Niña?


Olivia 1975 I believe.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Depression

#203 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:39 pm

Tropical Depression Rick Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Rick has continued to move farther inland over the mountainous
terrain of Mexico. The core of the cyclone collapsed earlier this
afternoon, and what remains of the deep convection near it's
estimated center is gradually dissipating. The strongest convection
now associated with the system is located along the coast, and an
earlier ASCAT overpass showed that the peak winds in those showers
and thunderstorms were only 20 to 25 kt. There are very few surface
observations near where the estimated center of Rick is located.
Therefore, based primarily on the degradation in the satellite
appearance of the cyclone, the initial intensity has been lowered to
30 kt.

Rick's estimated motion is 355/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge to
the east of the depression should keep it on this same general
trajectory farther inland over Mexico into tonight. Therefore,
continued weakening is inevitable. Visible satellite images indicate
that the low-level center of Rick is becoming diffuse. Although the
NHC forecast shows dissipation in 24 h, this may occur much sooner.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 20.0N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 21.5N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Depression

#204 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:41 pm

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Depression

#205 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:16 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Depression

#206 Postby zeehag » Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:07 pm

pictures of zihuatenejo show many trees broken and down, flooding and brown ocean. my friend in residence in zihuat said angry brown seas in bay. i donot know status of the beach front businesses or fishermens beach front spaces. electricity was back in service by 1 pm when i heard the update from him.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Depression

#207 Postby zeehag » Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:22 pm

as an afterthought ..it might be nice to in future mention to the towns in the path of a storm that there is a storm coming.. those in zihuat had no clue until i spoke to a friend living where the coordinates of storm were in listing. no one warned em as no one mentioned zihuat..only lazaro and rural areas south of manzanillo. how can this be changed so folks can be warned. sometimes i donot see the cities in the coordinates in a timely manner.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Remnants

#208 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:36 pm

Remnants Of Rick Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Rick has
dissipated over the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico. The
surface low, if one exists, appears to be elongated east-to-west
based on a few weather observations, and there is no organized deep
convection within 150 nmi of the poorly defined center. Therefore,
this will be the final NHC advisory on Rick.

Although the system has dissipated, deep-layer moisture associated
with Rick's remnants will continue to spread northward over
south-central and west-central Mexico. As a result, heavy rainfall
is expected across portions of those areas through at least Tuesday.
These rains may contribute to dangerous flash flooding and
mudslides. For additional information on the heavy rainfall and
flood potential, please consult products issued by your local
weather forecast office.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Rick. For additional information on the heavy rainfall and flooding
potential over Mexico, please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 20.4N 103.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF RICK
12H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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