EPAC: RICK - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#141 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:42 am

Source of the storm’s struggles seems to be a southerly shear from a displaced ULAC. This can be attributed to the La Niña pattern I think actually because a ULAC would be favored over the Caribbean in a developing La Niña.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#142 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:33 am

Looks like the shear might of disrupted Rick. It looks like the upper level circulation might be with the development on IR. However lower level circulation looks like it was to the north west. It looks like it might be reorganising, without daylight or Hurricane Hunters looking at it it's hard to say.

GOES-17 Clean IR



GOES-17 Ash (shows structure the best)

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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#143 Postby beoumont » Sun Oct 24, 2021 4:37 am

Haven't I seen this movie before; recently?
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#144 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:28 am

At least Rick looked way better than Pamela before it too was struck down by shear and a displaced ULAC.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#145 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:53 am

aspen wrote:At least Rick looked way better than Pamela before it too was struck down by shear and a displaced ULAC.

~10kt of mid level shear was modeled well, though most models had a more robust moist pocket. Continental dry air wrapped between the outer band and eroded the core. Normally recoverable but that plus shear and terrain induced subsidence may have been a little too much for Rick.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#146 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:15 am

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Corrected typo in the first Key Message

The overall satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed
much overnight. Rick's center is embedded within a small central
dense overcast, and an earlier SSMIS microwave overpass suggests
that the small eye was slightly better defined. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Rick overnight has found
that the hurricane has not strengthened since the mission yesterday
afternoon. Although the aircraft did not measure flight-level winds
as strong as during the previous mission, a dropsonde released in
the southwestern eyewall measure mean winds in the lowest 150 m that
still support an intensity of 75 kt. The aircraft reported that the
minimum pressure is around 980 mb, which is close to the pressure
reported yesterday afternoon.

It is surprising that Rick has not intensified over the past 6-12
hours as the hurricane remains in a low shear environment and the
outflow is well established. Given the expected favorable
upper-level wind pattern and warm sea surface temperatures along the
track of Rick, strengthening is forecast to resume today. Since
Rick has not strengthened as much as expected and it only has about
12-18 hours before southwesterly shear is forecast to increase over
the storm, the updated intensity forecast calls for a lower peak
intensity than before and is at the high end of the guidance
envelope. As Rick approaches the coast of southern Mexico tonight,
the aforementioned increase in southwesterly shear and land
interaction could case some weakening. After landfall, rapid
weakening will occur as the cyclone moves over the mountainous
terrain of Mexico, and Rick is expected to dissipate Monday night or
Tuesday.

The overnight aircraft fixes were a little east of the earlier
satellite-based position estimates, yielding a more northward
long-term motion estimate of 355/3 kt. Rick is forecast to move
northward or north-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over Mexico. This motion
should bring the center of the hurricane to the coast of southern
Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight or early Monday,
and inland over southern or southwestern Mexico on Monday. The
dynamical models are in relatively good agreement on this scenario,
and the official forecast lies near the various consensus aids. The
new track forecast is a little right of the previous advisory due to
the more eastward initial position.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to strengthen today and reach the coast of
southern Mexico tonight or early Monday, bringing life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds within a portion of
the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San
Telmo. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico beginning today
from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning
from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan today, and could persist
through Monday night. This rainfall will likely produce flash
flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 15.6N 101.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.2N 101.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.2N 102.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.4N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/0600Z 20.2N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#147 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:17 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241445
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Rick has changed little in organization since last night, with an
80-100 n mi wide Central Dense Overcast surrounded by some
convective banding features. The intensity estimate is held at 75
kt for this advisory based on a blend of subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB, along with objective ADT numbers from
UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow has become less well-defined over
the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone, suggestive of some
south-southeasterly shear.

Center fixes indicate that the hurricane continues its fairly slow
northward motion at around 355/5 kt. Rick should move northward to
north-northwestward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge
over Mexico, and the track guidance shows a slight increase in
forward speed during the next day or so. The global models
show a slight building of a mid-level ridge to the northwest of
Rick in about 36 hours which could cause the track to bend more to
the left after landfall. The official track forecast is very close
to the previous one and is also very close to the latest NOAA
corrected-consensus, HCCA, prediction.

Although Rick has been in a seemingly conducive environment for
strengthening, the hurricane has not intensified much. This
reminds us of our limited understanding of tropical cyclone
intensity change. Nonetheless, since Rick should remain over warm
waters and in a fairly moist mid-level atmospheric environment
before reaching the coast, the official forecast continues to
call for some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. When
the center nears the coast, some increase in southwesterly shear
and the interaction with the mountainous land mass of southern
Mexico could cause some weakening. After landfall, the cyclone
will weaken rapidly and the system may lose its identity sooner
than shown in this forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to strengthen today and reach the coast of
southern Mexico tonight or early Monday, bringing life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds within a portion of
the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San
Telmo. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico beginning today
from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning
from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan today, and could persist
through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash
flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.1N 101.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.9N 101.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 18.1N 102.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0000Z 19.2N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1200Z 20.4N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#148 Postby zzh » Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:20 am

From NHC's discussions:
03Z:
Since Rick is in a low shear environment and has excellent cirrus
outflow, it is unclear why the system has stopped intensifying.

09Z:
It is surprising that Rick has not intensified over the past 6-12
hours as the hurricane remains in a low shear environment and the
outflow is well established.

15Z:
Although Rick has been in a seemingly conducive environment for
strengthening, the hurricane has not intensified much. This
reminds us of our limited understanding of tropical cyclone
intensity change.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#149 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:52 am

Remember when the Eastern Pacific would produce storms that were significantly stronger than forecast? Way back in 2014-18.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#150 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:43 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Remember when the Eastern Pacific would produce storms that were significantly stronger than forecast? Way back in 2014-18.



Those days will be back once a potent El Niño appears. I'm starting to think that years of consecutive La Niñas negatively impacts TC activity in both Pacific and Atlantic, but emphasis on the Pacific side. First year of La Niña, the basin could still pop some surprises, but the second consecutive cold ENSO year would be brutal... Just look at the total ACE so far this year worldwide. :double:
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#151 Postby Teban54 » Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:48 am

dexterlabio wrote:but the second consecutive cold ENSO year would be brutal...

2017 entered the chat.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#152 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:07 pm

Teban54 wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:but the second consecutive cold ENSO year would be brutal...

2017 entered the chat.


2021 was a second consecutive ENSO -ve year though (both developed La Nina mid season)
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#153 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:29 pm

Teban54 wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:but the second consecutive cold ENSO year would be brutal...

2017 entered the chat.


Well yeah, that year really goes against my case. Although if we're talking about the global TC activity, the first La Nina year being 2016 is more active than 2017. Of course, ATL had a very different experience that year. Although, if there is something 2016 got better than 2017 in the Atlantic, it would be the increased late-season activity starting with Matthew.


Nonetheless, when you factor in all the other basins' contribution, especially the Pacific, the second year La Niña appears to bring down TC activity wordwide below normal threshold.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#154 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:42 pm

Wouldn't count Rick down and out just yet.....looking better the last few hours and firing more convection this is really trying to wrap around the eastern and northern side. Factor in land friction....I doubt it has peaked at this point.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#155 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:51 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...RICK INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE
COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 101.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 101.7 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slightly faster motion
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next day or
two. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the
coast of Mexico today and tonight and make landfall on the coast of
Mexico within the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while Rick moves closer to
the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected,
and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of
southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#156 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:59 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#157 Postby Teban54 » Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:03 pm


Doesn't look nearly as bad as Pamela did. Wouldn't be surprised to see some last-minute intensification to a Cat 2, though a major can be written out at this point.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#158 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:30 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:Wouldn't count Rick down and out just yet.....looking better the last few hours and firing more convection this is really trying to wrap around the eastern and northern side. Factor in land friction....I doubt it has peaked at this point.


Almost all models are predicting weakening before landfall because of an increase in shear, HMON 12Z even goes as far as completely destroying it to TD status. Even if it intensifies a bit, its not going to be a case where it intensifies to landfall.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#159 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:53 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Remember when the Eastern Pacific would produce storms that were significantly stronger than forecast? Way back in 2014-18.



Those days will be back once a potent El Niño appears. I'm starting to think that years of consecutive La Niñas negatively impacts TC activity in both Pacific and Atlantic, but emphasis on the Pacific side. First year of La Niña, the basin could still pop some surprises, but the second consecutive cold ENSO year would be brutal... Just look at the total ACE so far this year worldwide. :double:


Second year La Ninas are generally more active than first year La Ninas unless the El Niño that precedes the first year Niña dissipates unusually late.

2014-18 was a really extreme anomaly because the North Pacific got extremely warm due to so much ridging off the West Coast and in the Gulf of Alaska. This also caused the megadrought in California. We’ll probably never see a period like that again until AMO flips. A more typical El Niño season would is a 2002 or a 2009.
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Hurricane

#160 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 24, 2021 2:17 pm

TXPZ21 KNES 241757
TCSENP

A. 17E (RICK)

B. 24/1730Z

C. 16.3N

D. 101.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. THE MET IS
4.0 BASED ON A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE PT
IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON PT SINCE THERE WAS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC
POSITION AND A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE
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