ATL: WANDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#61 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 30, 2021 6:31 pm

zzh wrote:
tolakram wrote:I see the experts have come out to tell the NHC they are wrong. :x

Please tell us where the front is and how you find it.



I'm not a forecaster, perhaps those claiming the NHC is wrong can demonstrate the lack of a frontal boundary or why they think this was a warm core system at the time the NHC said fronts were still attached?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#62 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:08 pm

tolakram wrote:
zzh wrote:
tolakram wrote:I see the experts have come out to tell the NHC they are wrong. :x

Please tell us where the front is and how you find it.



I'm not a forecaster, perhaps those claiming the NHC is wrong can demonstrate the lack of a frontal boundary or why they think this was a warm core system at the time the NHC said fronts were still attached?

Phase diagrams have suggested a shallow warm core system. Earlier scatterometer data had a clearly attached front. A warm core frontal system would still be 'non tropical', hence the NHC's assessment. It has been gradually cutting off all through today. Won't be long...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#63 Postby zzh » Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:33 pm

AL, 94, 2021103100, , BEST, 0, 365N, 461W, 45, 988, SS,
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm

#64 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:35 pm

zzh wrote:
AL, 94, 2021103100, , BEST, 0, 365N, 461W, 45, 988, SS,

There it is: Subtropical Storm Wanda
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#65 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:48 pm

zzh wrote:
AL, 94, 2021103100, , BEST, 0, 365N, 461W, 45, 988, SS,

Fitting that the storm that shares the name with the Scarlet Witch will be named on Halloween (technically still October 30th EST, but it’s the 31st based on UT).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#66 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:21 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#67 Postby zzh » Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:59 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#68 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Oct 30, 2021 9:09 pm

AL, 21, 202110302218, 30, AMSU, IPR, , 3678N, 4661W, , 1, 51, 2, 990, 2, MEAS, 34, NEQ, 0, 111, 149, 98, , , , , 2, 77, , L, CIRA, JAK, , , , , , , 990, , NOAA15, 34, NEQ, 0, 111, 149, 98, , , , , , , , , , , , , 2, storm center extrapolated from t=-12 and t=0 adeck
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#69 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 30, 2021 9:10 pm

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#70 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Oct 30, 2021 9:49 pm

000
WTNT41 KNHC 310233
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 30 2021

The non-tropical low that NHC has been monitoring for subtropical
transition over the central Atlantic appears to have completed the
process this evening. Satellite images indicate that there are no
longer fronts attached to the low, and showers and thunderstorms
have become concentrated near the center. The low has some tropical
characteristics (small radius of maximum wind and concentrated
convection) and some subtropical characteristics (co-located with an
upper-level trough and nearby fronts). The system is designated as
a subtropical storm for now since there appears to be more support
for that status. The initial intensity is estimated to be 45 kt
based on recent ASCAT data, which makes the cyclone Subtropical
Storm Wanda.

The storm has been moving east-southeastward at 18 kt. A slower
east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during the next day
or so as Wanda moves with the deep-layer trough that it is embedded
within. After that time, the trough is expected to cut off, and
Wanda will likely meander on Monday before turning sharply northward
or northeastward by the middle of next week when the system moves
in the flow between the low and a building ridge. Most of the
models agree on the general evolution, but there are notable speed
differences. The NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus
aids.

Wanda will likely maintain its strength during the next several
days. Although the system will remain over relatively cool waters
of about 23-24 C during the next couple of days, cold air aloft
should aid in the continued development of deep convection and could
allow the system to strengthen slightly during that time period.
Beyond that time, Wanda should begin to move over cooler waters and
that will likely end its opportunity to gain strength and lead to
post-tropical transition by the end of the forecast period. The
models are in good agreement on keeping Wanda steady state, and the
NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 36.2N 45.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 35.8N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 35.3N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 34.3N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 33.8N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 34.5N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 36.4N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 41.4N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 46.2N 35.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#71 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 30, 2021 9:51 pm

Like tropical storm Danny I could see Wanda's formation pushed back about 24 hours. ;) This is a good looking storm.
Image
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#72 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Oct 30, 2021 9:53 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Like tropical storm Danny I could see Wanda's formation pushed back about 24 hours. ;) This is a good looking storm.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8527/4SUZfR.gif

Those fronts were still attached. One could argue they still are. Based on Ascat, the north west one just barely detached from the system
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#73 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 30, 2021 9:55 pm

I believe that it is fairly close to being tropical and will probably get the sub removed tomorrow sometime. :)
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#74 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 30, 2021 10:03 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:I believe that it is fairly close to being tropical and will probably get the sub removed tomorrow sometime. :)

The low has some tropical
characteristics (small radius of maximum wind and concentrated
convection) and some subtropical characteristics (co-located with an
upper-level trough and nearby fronts). The system is designated as
a subtropical storm for now since there appears to be more support
for that status.

GFS has that upper trough dissipating and fronts backing off, so a fully tropical Wanda seems inevitable :P
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#75 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Oct 30, 2021 10:50 pm

Not too shabby. Could make a run for hurricane status if it keeps up this organization once it loses the front.

Image
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#76 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 30, 2021 11:00 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#77 Postby zzh » Sat Oct 30, 2021 11:04 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#78 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 31, 2021 12:23 am



Looks like it could take off pretty quickly if it can get stacked.
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#79 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 31, 2021 12:31 am

Looks like October finally produced with just one day to spare :D. Would be pretty cool to get a hurricane out of this.
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#80 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 31, 2021 12:59 am

Image
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