ATL: WANDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
zzh
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 375
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2021 2:18 pm

ATL: WANDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby zzh » Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:02 pm

AL, 94, 2021102600, , BEST, 0, 330N, 746W, 40, 1002, LO, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0, 1007, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 049, SPAWNINVEST, al742021 to al942021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:44 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#3 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:45 pm

Is this the first orange in October?
0 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#4 Postby Teban54 » Tue Oct 26, 2021 1:44 am

1. A deepening, non-tropical low pressure system with gale-force winds
is located about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina. This gale area is forecast to move north-northeastward
today, and could acquire some limited subtropical characteristics
before it merges with a frontal system by this afternoon. The
extratropical low is then expected to meander off the mid-Atlantic
and northeast U.S. coasts tonight and Wednesday, bringing rain and
wind impacts to portions of those areas. After that time, the low
is expected to move eastward away from the U.S. coast, and could
again acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves
eastward or southeastward over the warmer waters of the central
Atlantic. For more information on this system, including storm
warnings, see products issued by your local National Weather Service
office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
1 likes   

jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 533
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#5 Postby jconsor » Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:36 am

0 likes   

User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1089
Age: 30
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#6 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:46 am

Teban54 wrote:Is this the first orange in October?

There was also 92L offshore the Outer Banks.
0 likes   
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#7 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:18 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:33 pm

This storm sucks. If something of this magnitude happened in January instead of October, we’d likely be getting nearly a foot of snow. Driving conditions are garbage and are made worse by the covering of now-wet leaves on the road, and my university was having power issues; they didn’t have any during Ida despite its much higher rainfall.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#9 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:39 pm

How does this compare to the perfect storm of 1991?
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2022
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#10 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:19 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:How does this compare to the perfect storm of 1991?


Two major differences. The 1991 storm originated from a nor’easter near Atlantic Canada, which moved southwestward. Second, the 1991 storm was fueled by the remnants of Hurricane Grace near Bermuda. The current storm is perhaps more reminiscent of Tropical Storm Melissa in 2019.

Here’s a satellite loop of the 1991 storm


Link: https://youtu.be/MQBq25SwWxM

Here’s a satellite loop of 2019’s Melissa


Link: https://youtu.be/sdCXdrTMmJk
3 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2159
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#11 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:50 am

Impressive northeaster if nothing else, any time you get 30ft wave heights just offshore the storm has it going on.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=44029

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 50.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 32.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.31 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 52.2 °F
5-day plot - Visibility Visibility (VIS) (0 to 1.6 nmi): 1.6 nmi
5-day plot - Wind Chill Wind Chill (CHILL): 43.5 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 44.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 48.6 kts
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#12 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 27, 2021 12:46 pm

Quite an impressive non-tropical low, but it needs to develop deep convection to tighten up its core if it ever wants to become a TC. Chances are already going down.

If the Mediterranean can produce a TC in October, surely the Nina-favored Atlantic should be able to.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#13 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:07 pm

1. A deep, non-tropical low pressure system with storm-force winds is
centered more than 200 miles south-southeast of Cape Cod,
Massachusetts. The extratropical low is forecast to bring wind
impacts to portions of the northeastern U.S. coast for several more
hours as it begins to move eastward, away from the United States.
Thereafter, the low could acquire some subtropical characteristics
while it moves eastward or southeastward over the warmer waters of
the central Atlantic through this weekend. For more information on
this system, including storm warnings, see products issued by your
local National Weather Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#14 Postby skyline385 » Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:25 pm

aspen wrote:Quite an impressive non-tropical low, but it needs to develop deep convection to tighten up its core if it ever wants to become a TC. Chances are already going down.

If the Mediterranean can produce a TC in October, surely the Nina-favored Atlantic should be able to.

Well right now, the Atlantic doesn't seem to be acting like a Nina-favored one...
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:07 pm

skyline385 wrote:
aspen wrote:Quite an impressive non-tropical low, but it needs to develop deep convection to tighten up its core if it ever wants to become a TC. Chances are already going down.

If the Mediterranean can produce a TC in October, surely the Nina-favored Atlantic should be able to.

Well right now, the Atlantic doesn't seem to be acting like a Nina-favored one...

The question is why, and whether or not it has to do with the state of this La Niña. If the 2021-22 Nina is going to behave differently than a normal Nina, then it’ll have major impacts for CONUS winter forecasts over the next several months.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 27, 2021 3:15 pm

Down to 30% on the latest TWO. Another October 2021 bust.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#17 Postby skyline385 » Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:54 pm

aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
aspen wrote:Quite an impressive non-tropical low, but it needs to develop deep convection to tighten up its core if it ever wants to become a TC. Chances are already going down.

If the Mediterranean can produce a TC in October, surely the Nina-favored Atlantic should be able to.

Well right now, the Atlantic doesn't seem to be acting like a Nina-favored one...

The question is why, and whether or not it has to do with the state of this La Niña. If the 2021-22 Nina is going to behave differently than a normal Nina, then it’ll have major impacts for CONUS winter forecasts over the next several months.

That is the question on a lot of people's minds over here probably. I have been curious myself as well on how the winter plays out...
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#18 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:10 am

Image
0 likes   

jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 533
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#19 Postby jconsor » Thu Oct 28, 2021 7:11 am

Thread on #94L which is gaining convection and will likely be named soon as a subtropical storm. It could briefly complete transition to tropical in the next day or two, before shear increases.

Wouldn't rule out the possibility it becomes a strong STS or hurricane by mid next week as shear decreases again, but first it has to weather the rapid ramp-up in shear over the weekend.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1453690696695795722




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1453691896518303751


0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#20 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 28, 2021 8:58 am

Saved loop
Image
3 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests