ATL: WANDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Ubuntwo
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#101 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:57 pm

Wanda is now moving east-northeastward and, as a result, has moved
to the east of the upper-level trough axis, while the parent
upper-low has detached and pulled out to the north. As a result,
Wanda has now made the transition from a subtropical cyclone to a
tropical cyclone. This meteorological metamorphosis has been
confirmed by ASCAT data from 1200-1300 UTC that showed Wanda now has
a small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 30-35 nmi, and that the
outer wind field has weakened and also contracted in size. The
intensity is being held at 40 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data
showing winds of 33-34 kt, and assuming that there is undersampling
owing to the relatively large footprint/resolution of the
scatterometer instrument.
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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#102 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 01, 2021 10:14 pm

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#103 Postby Nimbus » Tue Nov 02, 2021 1:28 pm

Wanda has another little vort orbiting around to her west wonder when that was spawned?.
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#104 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:05 pm

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Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#105 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:26 pm

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#106 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:13 am

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#107 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Nov 03, 2021 2:33 am

Nice little three day journey... big fan of these late season high latitude eye candy storms

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#108 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:44 am

Wanda is actually wrapping deep convection around its core despite it being daytime. Over the last few days, it structure has been tied to the diurnal convective cycles, but today seems to have broken that trend. It could be raised to 50 kt for 11am.
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#109 Postby tolakram » Wed Nov 03, 2021 7:53 am

Saved loop from SLIDER

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#110 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:05 am

CIRA’s experimental multi-platform satellite intensity estimate supports 50-55 kt for 11am. An increase to 50 kt is justified given the improved satellite presentation.
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#111 Postby jconsor » Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:41 am

Wandering Wanda has been quite a resilient, long-lasting system for so late in the year in the subtropics. Has a chance to strengthen into a strong TS or lower-end hurricane Sun-Mon if it gets pulled north by a strong trough and thus moves parallel to shear vector, as shown by several recent GFS and HWRF runs.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1455904892887961611


Last edited by jconsor on Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#112 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:43 pm

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#113 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:00 pm

I personally think Wanda is 50 knots. It is extremely organized, partially due to its non tropical origin. Also convection is deepening as well
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#114 Postby tolakram » Wed Nov 03, 2021 2:22 pm

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#115 Postby jconsor » Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:05 pm

More context on how rare it would be if Wanda lasts as a tropical cyclone until Sun or Mon:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1455988550814552073


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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#116 Postby jconsor » Wed Nov 03, 2021 3:39 pm

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#117 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:11 pm

Sea surface tempertaure?
Thanks!
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#118 Postby mitchell » Wed Nov 03, 2021 4:55 pm

DanieleItalyRm wrote:Sea surface tempertaure?
Thanks!

The National Hurricane Center Advisory earlier today said this:

"The system has maintained its intensity in spite of being over sea
surface temperatures of only about 23 deg C
. Wanda will pass over
even cooler waters while it moves farther northward during the next
24 hours or so, which may make it difficult for the system to
produce much deep convection. "
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#119 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Nov 03, 2021 5:07 pm

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#120 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Nov 03, 2021 8:28 pm

The shear appears to have significantly dropped off. Outflow is now evident. Wanda looks significantly better than 50 mph even taking the boundary layer into consideration. 50kts at least in my opinion. 55kts wouldn’t be out of the question since it’s starting to look more like a high latitude hurricane.
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