ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

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ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:28 am

Only model runs.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952021 10/30/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 37 42 45 42 35 32 26 22 19 18 18 18 18
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 37 42 45 42 35 32 26 22 19 18 18 18 18
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 30 26 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 5 4 9 8 18 29 31 29 36 36 37 34 36 39
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 4 5 7 1 15 21 13 1 0 -3 -5 0 3 2 2
SHEAR DIR 92 175 228 255 301 208 220 212 225 238 248 242 242 237 244 245 255
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.6 27.2 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 147 144 131 126 119 114 111 108 106 103 102 100 99 102
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 148 147 144 127 120 112 107 102 99 96 94 93 91 90 93
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.4 -55.8 -56.1 -56.1 -56.2 -56.0 -55.9 -55.5 -56.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2
700-500 MB RH 79 81 79 76 72 68 66 69 70 68 62 58 52 47 44 39 33
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 77 84 76 60 46 9 -24 -58 -77 -68 -47 -37 -21 -18 -19 -1 8
200 MB DIV 111 101 115 127 113 89 64 76 43 13 -4 -6 9 -9 7 -9 24
700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 0 1 1 4 11 16 13 4 -6 -9 -6 -6 -4 0
LAND (KM) 834 905 963 1025 1085 1187 1270 1293 1281 1171 1000 824 678 555 448 314 184
LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.7 10.2 10.8 11.4 12.8 14.3 16.0 17.8 19.4 20.4 20.4 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 23.8 24.7 25.4 26.1 26.9 28.3 29.3 29.5 29.1 28.1 26.6 24.9 23.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 14 15 17 22 23 11 13 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. 26. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 3. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -11. -15. -18. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 20. 17. 10. 7. 1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 23.8

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 10/30/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 2.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.66 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 22.1% 12.4% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 14.0% 46.3% 22.9% 13.3% 8.0% 13.6% 16.8% 8.0%
Bayesian: 5.8% 34.1% 8.6% 2.4% 1.7% 5.9% 2.3% 0.3%
Consensus: 8.1% 34.2% 14.6% 8.1% 3.2% 6.5% 10.5% 2.8%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 10/30/2021 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 33 37 42 45 42 35 32 26 22 19 18 18 18 18
18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 33 38 41 38 31 28 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 32 35 32 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 24 27 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2021 2:11 pm

* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952021 10/30/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 43 38 32 24 20 17 16 16 17 19 18
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 43 38 32 24 20 17 16 16 17 19 18
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 36 37 33 28 23 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 3 1 1 5 7 9 20 29 29 32 31 32 34 28 37 43
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 4 1 9 28 17 11 4 -1 0 1 1 8 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 173 149 270 1 183 187 203 233 238 248 244 247 242 251 245 255 257
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.3 22.2
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 143 138 128 124 119 112 109 107 105 102 101 99 99 87
ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 146 142 135 124 117 112 104 100 97 95 93 92 90 90 80
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -55.0 -54.4 -55.0 -55.3 -56.0 -56.2 -56.5 -56.2 -56.1 -55.8 -56.0 -56.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 0 2
700-500 MB RH 81 79 76 73 70 66 68 69 67 64 57 53 46 43 40 37 33
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 9 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 87 79 65 50 27 2 -30 -70 -63 -56 -49 -26 -23 -25 -9 8 6
200 MB DIV 104 137 127 128 113 85 108 71 27 -10 -12 -6 0 -3 -7 7 -11
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 2 0 11 20 21 12 0 -8 -11 -7 -5 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 895 963 1037 1089 1138 1231 1278 1280 1252 1097 925 772 649 521 401 262 101
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.2 10.7 11.3 11.9 13.2 14.9 16.7 18.6 20.1 20.7 20.4 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 24.6 25.4 26.2 26.9 27.6 28.8 29.4 29.3 28.7 27.5 25.9 24.4 23.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 7 7 7 7 6 7 9
HEAT CONTENT 14 17 22 23 17 11 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 27. 27. 25. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 3. -2. -5. -8. -13. -15. -18. -21.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -12. -17. -20. -21. -22. -21. -21. -20. -20.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 18. 13. 7. -1. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -7.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 24.6

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 10/30/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 4.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 3.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 3.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.70 1.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 30.0% 21.2% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.4% 63.3% 38.8% 24.6% 14.9% 18.5% 9.5% 7.8%
Bayesian: 2.3% 16.8% 4.4% 0.6% 0.5% 2.6% 2.2% 0.3%
Consensus: 5.7% 36.7% 21.5% 11.6% 5.1% 7.0% 9.7% 2.7%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 10/30/2021 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 41 43 38 32 24 20 17 16 16 17 19 18
18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 37 39 34 28 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 33 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2021 5:15 pm

No development on 18z GFS.

Image
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