ATL: WANDA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: WANDA - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:38 pm

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

The cloud pattern of Wanda has generally changed little during the
past several hours. The storm is still producing bands of deep
convection near and to the west of the center, with dry and stable
air limiting the amount of convection on the east side. An ASCAT
pass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt
range, and based on that data and the Dvorak estimates, the initial
intensity is nudged up to 45 kt.

Satellite images indicate that Wanda has turned to the right, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 090/5 kt. Wanda is
expected to turn southeastward on Friday and then southward on
Saturday as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and west of the
cyclone. After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to
approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at increasing
forward speeds Sunday and Monday. The latest models have trended
southward during the next couple of days, and the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted in that direction.

Wanda will likely move over slightly warmer waters and into a more
unstable environment during the next couple of days, which should
allow the storm to maintain its intensity or strengthen slightly
during that time period. The global models all agree that Wanda will
merge with a strong front in about 72 hours. Therefore, the new NHC
forecast shows extratropical transition completing by that time
period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the
guidance in the short term, but is near the middle of the guidance
envelope after that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 42.3N 38.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 41.0N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 39.1N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 37.5N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 37.7N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 40.5N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 44.4N 29.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 50.8N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2021 4:37 am

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

Wanda's cloud pattern remains about the same as it was yesterday
evening, with bands of moderately deep convection mainly over the
western half of the circulation. Dry and stable air is apparently
limiting convection over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone.
The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt for this advisory,
which is somewhat higher than Dvorak estimates but in good
agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. This seems
reasonable given that the cloud pattern has changed little
overnight.

The latest center fixes indicate that the cyclone is now moving
east-southeastward, or 120/5 kt. Wanda is expected to turn
southeastward today, and then southward on Saturday as a
mid-tropospheric ridge builds to the north and west of the
cyclone. After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to
approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at an
increasing forward speed. The official forecast is similar to the
dynamical track model consensus.

Since Wanda should move over slightly warmer waters and the shear
is not expected to increase during the next couple of days, this
should allow the storm to at least maintain its intensity or
strengthen a bit. After about 48 hours, vertical shear is
predicted to increase significantly. However, baroclinic
effects associated with an approaching strong front could offset
the weakening process. By 72 hours, the global models indicate
that Wanda will become embedded within the frontal zone, and thus
have made the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus model
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 41.8N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 40.3N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 38.2N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 37.8N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 39.3N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 43.0N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 47.5N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 53.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2021 12:00 pm

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

Wanda's cloud pattern has again changed little since the last
advisory, with bands of moderately deep convection currently
located mainly in the southern semicircle. Just-received ASCAT
data indicates an area of 40-45 kt winds mainly west of the center,
and based on this the initial intensity is a possibly conservative
45 kt. The ASCAT data also show that the wind field has expanded
on the west side, and the initial and forecast wind radii have thus
been modified.

The initial motion is now south-southeastward or 160/7 kt. A
southward motion is forecast during the next 24 h as a mid-level
ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. After that time,
a developing mid-latitude cyclone currently south of eastern Canada
will move close enough to break down the ridge and produce
southwesterly deep-layer flow around Wanda. This should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn northeastward and accelerate, with a quick
northeastward motion continuing until Wanda dissipates. The latest
track guidance is in good agreement, and the new forecast track lies
close to the various consensus models.

The southward motion should bring the center over slightly warmer
water during the next 24-36 h, and during this time Wanda should be
in an area of light to moderate shear inside of the circulation of a
nearby upper-level low. This environment should allow Wanda to
maintain its strength and perhaps strengthen a little. By 48 h, the
mid- latitude system approaching from the west should cause
increased shear, although the associated increased upper-level
divergence may offset any weakening caused by the shear. Wanda is
forecast to merge with a frontal zone by 72 h, and by 120 h the
system is forecast to weaken to a tough to the south of a large
mid-latitude low over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity
forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 40.6N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 39.1N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 37.9N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 38.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 41.0N 33.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 45.4N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 50.0N 22.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 57.5N 12.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2021 3:40 pm

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

Wanda's convective cloud pattern appears a little more organized
within its eastern semicircle this evening per GOES-East visible
and infrared imagery. However, cloud tops have not cooled.
Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged and with the
lack of any new ASCAT data, the maximum sustained winds remain
unchanged from the previous advisory.

Wanda is moving southward between a shortwave ridge to its
northwest and a deep layer low to its south. The initial motion is
considered 180/8 kt; the shorter term motion is quicker, closer to
15 kt, but unlikely to maintain itself as it leaves a zone of
confluent flow. The southward motion is expected to continue into
Saturday. Starting late Saturday, a developing mid-latitude cyclone
south of Atlantic Canada will break down the ridge and the deep
layer low will migrate farther away. The cyclone near Canada is
expected to grow in size and intensity which will act to accelerate
Wanda and eventually absorb the storm. The latest track guidance
shows a sharper turn and has trended west during its period of
acceleration, which has led to a modest adjustment to the previous
forecast.

The southward motion should bring the center over slightly warmer
water during the next 24 hours, and during this time Wanda should be
in an area of light to moderate shear caused by the nearby deep
layer low. This environment should allow Wanda to maintain its
strength and perhaps strengthen a little. By 48 hours, the
approaching mid-latitude system will bring some upper level
diffluence which could offset the affects of increasing vertical
wind shear. Wanda is forecast to merge with a frontal zone by 72
hours, and by 96 hours system is forecast to be absorbed by
the mid-latitude low over the northeastern Atlantic. The new
intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 39.1N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 38.1N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 37.5N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 39.4N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 43.7N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 49.1N 23.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 57.6N 12.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roth/Taylor
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:47 pm

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

A dry mid-level environment appears to be hindering Wanda's
convective organization tonight. While infrared cloud top
temperatures have warmed within the eastern semicircle, a more
recent burst of moderately deep convection has been noted in the
northwestern quadrant of Wanda. A timely ASCAT-B pass just before
0000 UTC revealed a broad swath of 40- to 45-kt winds within Wanda's
western semicircle. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
held at 45 kt for this advisory.

A narrow mid-level ridge to the north and west of Wanda is steering
the cyclone southward. Its estimated motion is 185/8 kt, although
Wanda has been moving more south-southwestward over the past several
hours. The storm is expected to briefly slow down and meander over
the central Atlantic this morning as the steering flow collapses.
Then, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an
approaching mid- to upper-level trough located near Atlantic Canada
is forecast to cause Wanda to accelerate northeastward through early
next week. The global models indicate that Wanda is likely to merge
with a baroclinic zone by Sunday night, then become absorbed by a
deepening extratropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic early
next week. The latest track guidance is in good agreement, but it
has trended faster with Wanda's forward motion ahead of the trough,
which will likely expedite its extratropical transition. Some
along-track adjustments were made to the official NHC forecast,
which now shows Wanda becoming extratropical in 48 h and becoming
absorbed at 72 h.

Wanda's southward motion will bring the cyclone over slightly warmer
(22 deg C) SSTs today, and cold air aloft could result in enough
stability for Wanda to generate some more convection while the
deep-layer shear diminishes to less than 10 kt. But the dry
environment in which Wanda is embedded will continue to make it
difficult for the storm's organization to improve very much, as
suggested by the latest GFS and ECMWF-model simulated satellite
imagery. The latest NHC intensity forecast allows for just a bit of
strengthening this weekend, in good agreement with the IVCN/HCCA
consensus aids. By late Sunday and Monday, the aforementioned
upper-level trough will bring strong south-southwesterly shear over
Wanda while the cyclone moves over plummeting SSTs in the North
Atlantic. Baroclinic processes and a fast forward motion could allow
Wanda to briefly maintain its intensity, but a weakening trend
should commence on Monday before the cyclone is absorbed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 38.0N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 37.6N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 38.4N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 41.9N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 47.4N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/1200Z 54.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2021 4:59 am

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

Wanda's convective structure has continued to evolve this morning,
with two earlier bands situated east and west of the well-defined
center now having consolidated into a solid band of convection with
cloud tops of -50C to -57C wrapping around the eastern semicircle.
The initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory based on
continuity with earlier 40-45 kt ASCAT data and the recently
improved convective structure.

The initial motion estimate is southward or 180/04 kt. Wanda is
expected to slow down further this morning and then turn sharply
northeastward this afternoon as a narrow mid-/upper-level shortwave
ridge passes to the north of the cyclone. A strong deep-layer trough
and associated frontal system are then forecast to approach Wanda
from the west by tonight, causing the cyclone to accelerate
northeastward on Sunday and Monday. The front is forecast to catch
up with Wanda in the 36-48-h period, resulting in extratropical
transition before the system is absorbed by a large, deepening
extratropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic early next week.
The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this
developing forecast track scenario, and the official forecast track
lies very near the the middle of the tightly packed simple- and
corrected-consensus guidance envelope.

Wanda's is now over what will be the warmest water for the remainder
of the cyclone's lifetime. The deep-layer shear is forecast to
remain around 10-15 kt for the next 24 h or so, while colder
aloft overspreads the cyclone, creating a little more instability.
This combination of positive environmental factors should continue
to produce deep convection near Wanda's center, possibly resulting
in some slight strengthening before the system becomes an
extratropical cyclone. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically
identical to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of
the various intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 37.4N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 37.5N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 39.4N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 43.6N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 48.7N 22.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/1800Z 54.2N 12.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2021 9:43 am

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

The structure of Wanda has changed little since the last advisory,
with a band of convection near the center in the northern
semicircle and more isolated convective cells elsewhere near the
center. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates range from 30-47 kt. Given the spread and the unchanged
structure, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The initial motion is 180/5 kt. Satellite imagery shows a large
mid-latitude low pressure system approaching Wanda from the west and
northwest, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn
northeastward during the next 12 h. After that, Wanda is expected
to accelerate toward the northeast. The current guidance is in
good agreement on the direction of motion, although it is a little
slower than the previous guidance. The new forecast track is
similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast.

Increasing upper-level divergence associated with the mid-latitude
low should allow Wanda to strengthen slightly during the next 24 h.
Afterwards, the cyclone is expected to merge with a cold front and
become an extratropical low. The global models subsequently
forecast this low to weaken to a trough by 60 h, and the new
intensity forecast shows dissipation at that time. Otherwise, there
are only minor adjustments to the previous intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 37.0N 38.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 37.6N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 40.5N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 45.3N 26.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1200Z 50.6N 18.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2021 3:42 pm

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 PM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021

Convection associated with Wanda has decreased during the past
several hours, with only a small convective cluster occurring just
east of the center. In addition, scatterometer data received since
the last advisory suggests that the maximum winds have decreased to
near 40 kt. That will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

Wanda is starting its long-anticipated northeastward turn, with the
initial motion now 090/3 kt. Developing deep-layer southwesterly
flow on the southeast side of a large mid-latitude low pressure area
should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward during the next
12 h, with a fast northeastward motion continuing until Wanda
dissipates between 36-48 h. The track guidance is in good
agreement, and the new track forecast lies near the various
consensus models.

Despite the recent weakening, the intensity guidance still
forecasts some intensification during the next 12-24 h, possibly
due to increased upper-level divergence over the cyclone caused by
the mid-latitude low or the upcoming significant increase in
forward speed. The new intensity forecast will continue to call for
Wanda to strengthen for 24 h, although given current trends it would
not be surprising if it did not. The cyclone is expected to merge
with a cold front between 24-36 h, and the forecast follows the the
global model guidance in calling for the circulation to dissipate by
48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 37.0N 37.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 38.5N 35.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 42.2N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 47.4N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2021 9:43 pm

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 AM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021

Wanda has continued to weaken tonight. Only small bursts of
convection have occurred during the past several hours, and Wanda's
low-level center is starting to move away from the ongoing
convection in its southeastern quadrant. A 2220 UTC ASCAT-A pass
revealed a small area of 30-kt winds in this portion of the cyclone,
but the infrared cloud top temperatures have cooled in this area
since that data was collected. The initial intensity is lowered to
35 kt for this advisory, which lies on the higher end of the most
recent satellite estimates.

Wanda is beginning to move faster toward the northeast, and its
initial motion is estimated to be 050/12 kt. The cyclone will
continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within
the strengthening, deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with a
deepening mid-latitude low pressure system over the northern
Atlantic. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the
latest NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the previous
advisory.

Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for any further tropical development of Wanda. As the
cyclone races northeastward, it will encounter decreasing SSTs and
increasing deep-layer southerly shear within a dry mid-level
environment. Thus, Wanda's convective structure is unlikely to
improve over the next 24 h. The intensity guidance suggests the peak
winds could increase slightly later today, but this is most likely a
product of the system's increasing forward speed and its merger with
an approaching front. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast has
been lowered from the previous one. Wanda is still forecast to
merge with the front and become extratropical tonight, then
dissipate over the northeastern Atlantic on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 37.8N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 39.8N 34.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 44.4N 28.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/1200Z 48.9N 21.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: WANDA - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2021 5:56 am

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021

Wanda is barely hanging on as a sheared tropical storm due to a
small burst of deep convection located in the southeastern quadrant.
The initial intensity has been maintained at 35 kt based on earlier
30-kt ASCAT data being co-located with the new burst of deep
convection. Little or no change in strength is expected during the
next 36 hours due to southwesterly vertical wind shear increasing to
more than 40 kt by 18-24 hours, and sea-surface temperatures
decreasing to less than 20 deg C beneath the cyclone. In the 18-24-h
period, Wanda is expected to merge with a rapidly approaching cold
front currently located to its west, becoming extratropical tonight
and dissipating over the far northeastern Atlantic on Monday.

The initial motion estimate is now 050/15 kt. There are no
significant changes to the previous forecast track and rationale.
During the next 24 hours or so, Wanda is expected to continue
accelerating northeastward ahead of a strong deep-layer trough and
associated cold front. After merging with the front system, the
extratropical low should maintain a fast northeastward motion until
it dissipates by 48 hours. The new NHC forecast track is very
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the
tightly packed consensus track models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 38.5N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 41.6N 31.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 46.6N 24.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/1800Z 51.1N 17.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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