EPAC: TERRY - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2021 9:38 pm

Tropical Storm Terry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
900 PM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

Terry remains a very low latitude tropical storm. The system has
generally changed little during the past several hours, with the
cloud pattern consisting of a ragged central dense overcast feature
and broken curved bands that are most organized in the northwestern
quadrant. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at
the University of Wisconsin range from 35 to 50 kt, and the initial
intensity is nudged up to 40 kt based on that data.

The track forecast reasoning is unchanged. The storm is moving
west-northwestward at 12 kt, and it is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward through Monday. Thereafter, a due westward motion
is expected as Terry moves on the south side of a strong low- to
mid-level ridge. The models all show a similar theme, but there is
some cross- and along-track spread. The new track forecast is a
touch north of the previous one to come into better agreement with
the latest consensus aids.

Now that Terry has pulled away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where
dry and stable air was entraining into the system, some slight
additional strengthening is possible in the short term as the large
scale conditions remain generally favorable. However, in a couple
of days, increasing southerly shear will likely end the opportunity
for strengthening and cause a gradual decay. The GFS and ECMWF both
show Terry's convection losing organization around the middle of the
week and those models also show the system dissipating within the
ITCZ in 4 or 5 days. There is a large spread in the intensity
models, but given the expected environmental conditions, the NHC
intensity forecast continues to lie near the low end of the
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 9.0N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 9.5N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 10.0N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 10.4N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 10.6N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 10.6N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 10.7N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 10.5N 124.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:57 am

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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:25 am

Tropical Storm Terry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
300 AM CST Mon Nov 08 2021

The overall convective organization of the low-latitude Tropical
Storm Terry has become somewhat ragged looking since the previous
advisory, although there has been a recent small burst of deep
convection near and northeast of the estimated low-level center. A
0255Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated that surface winds had
decreased to 29 kt northeast of the center during the earlier
convective waning period. However, the recent increase in convection
with cloud tops of around -85C may have locally enhanced those ASCAT
wind speeds and, thus, Terry's intensity has only been lowered to 35
kt.

Terry's initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or
295/12 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous track
forecast or synoptic reasoning. Terry and it is expected to continue
moving west-northwestward through today, followed by a turn toward
the west on Tuesday. A general westward motion is forecast on days
2-5 as a sprawling deep-later ridge to the north of the cyclone is
expected to remain entrenched across most of the eastern North
Pacific. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies along the southern edge of the tightly
packed simple- and corrected-consensus track model envelope.

ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B scatterometer surface wind data from 0300-0400Z
showed that Terry's low-level wind field had become elongated
east-to-west, and that the radius of maximum winds had also
increased to at least 70 nmi in the northeastern quadrant. Although
the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain relatively
low at less than 10 kt, the GFS and ECMWF global models are
forecasting moderate mid-level shear to undercut the otherwise
favorable upper-level outflow layer, resulting in a continued
disruption of the convective pattern. As a result, gradual weakening
is expected during the 5-day period, with Terry now forecast to
become a tropical depression later today. Otherwise, no other
changes were made to the previous intensity forecast, with the new
NHC intensity forecast closely following a blend of the simple and
corrected-consensus intensity model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 9.6N 105.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 10.0N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 10.5N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 10.7N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 10.9N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 10.9N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 10.9N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 10.7N 125.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Nov 08, 2021 7:56 am

Wait...this is actually happening? Both storms got named and they are expected to weaken back to TD status in 12 hours as well? Jeez, talk about having a 2019 Olga and another 2019 Olga occuring simultaneously!
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#65 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:45 am

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 AM MST Mon Nov 08 2021

Terry has become less organized since yesterday and it appears
that this is the from a combination of mid-level shear and the
entrainment of some drier and more stable air from the north.
Early light-visible satellite imagery reveals a couple of linear
lines of deep convection, but the low cloud motion suggests that
the circulation may be less defined. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 30 kt, and is based on earlier scatterometer data
and a TAFB Dvorak classification of T2.0. Hopefully the ASCAT
instrument will provide data over the system this afternoon to
determine if a well-defined center still exists.

Terry is moving west-northwestward or 290/13 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged as a well-established strong
deep-layer ridge to the north of Terry is expected to steer
the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during the next few
days. The dynamical model guidance is in agreement on this
scenario but the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly northward to be closer to the various consensus aids.

The mid-level shear that has been plaguing Terry is forecast to
continue during the next day or two. This is likely to result in
some additional weakening during that time. Although some of the
guidance suggests that Terry could reach a more favorable
environment later in the period, the current structure of the
system suggests that there will not be enough left of the cyclone
to take advantage of that. Therefore, the NHC forecast continues
to follow the ECMWF and UKMET models which depict weakening and
dissipation by day 4. It is possible that Terry will loose
tropical cyclone status much sooner, either due to a lack of
organized convection or loss of a well-defined center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 10.1N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 10.6N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 11.2N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 11.5N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 11.5N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 11.3N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#66 Postby Teban54 » Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:22 am

Fun fact: 2021 EPac now has more named storms than 2015 EPac proper (i.e. not counting CPac names).
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#67 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 08, 2021 1:01 pm

Teban54 wrote:Fun fact: 2021 EPac now has more named storms than 2015 EPac proper (i.e. not counting CPac names).

If all CPac storms were named as EPac storms, then 2015 would’ve gone into the Greeks and Patricia would’ve been Gamma, starting the Greek retirement debate half a decade before 2020’s bonkers late season.
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#68 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 08, 2021 1:17 pm

aspen wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Fun fact: 2021 EPac now has more named storms than 2015 EPac proper (i.e. not counting CPac names).

If all CPac storms were named as EPac storms, then 2015 would’ve gone into the Greeks and Patricia would’ve been Gamma, starting the Greek retirement debate half a decade before 2020’s bonkers late season.


Patricia would have been named Zelda actually.
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#69 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:30 pm

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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#70 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:38 pm

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
200 PM MST Mon Nov 08 2021

Although Terry's overall convective organization remains poor, a
1526 UTC ASCAT-A overpass indicated that the circulation was better
defined than last evening. The scatterometer data revealed peak
winds of 25-26 kt, and given the typical undersampling from that
instrument the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.
Mid-level shear and the ingestion of a drier and stable air mass
have continued to take a toll on the cyclone. These conditions are
not expected to abate during the next couple of days, and some
additional weakening is possible during that time. Although some of
the guidance suggests that Terry could reach a more favorable
environment later in the period, the ECMWF and UKMET models
continue to weaken the system and the NHC forecast again shows the
system degenerating into a remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate by
day 4.

Terry continues to move west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. As stated
in the past several advisories, the steering currents ahead of
Terry remain well established and there is no change to the
forecast track reasoning. The cyclone will continue to move
west-northwestward to westward to the south of a strong deep-layer
over western Mexico. The latest suite of dynamical model tracks is
slightly north of and slower than the previous model envelope. As
a result, the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly, and is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA)
and the simple consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 10.5N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 11.0N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 11.4N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 11.6N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 11.7N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 11.6N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 11.5N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#71 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:40 pm

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 PM MST Mon Nov 08 2021

Although Terry is producing more deep convection this evening,
recent microwave images show that the system still has a weak and
ragged appearance with the low-level center located near the eastern
edge of the main area of deep convection. The microwave images
also suggest that the circulation is less defined and stretching out
from east to west. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, based on
the earlier ASCAT data, which is a little below the latest Dvorak
estimates. Hopefully the next round of ASCAT data will provide more
information on Terry's intensity and structure.

There remains no change to the track forecast reasoning. Terry is
currently moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 12 kt. A west to
west-northwest motion is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours,
followed by a due westward motion after that as Terry moves within
the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The models are in
good agreement, and the NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.

Terry has been struggling due to mid-level wind shear and intrusions
of dry air. Since these environmental conditions are likely to
persist, gradual weakening still seems likely. The most difficult
question is how long Terry will hang on as a tropical depression.
Some of the models show Terry opening into a trough within a couple
of days while others strengthen the system. Given the divergence in
the model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast has been held steady
and shows Terry dissipating by day 4. This forecast remains on the
low side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 10.7N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 11.1N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 11.7N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 11.6N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 11.4N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 11.2N 123.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#72 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:24 am

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
200 AM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

Terry has been undergoing a convective bursting pattern since the
previous advisory, with thunderstorms containing cloud tops of -75C
to -80C persisting near and west of the well-defined low-level
circulation center. ASCAT-B scatterometer data around 0534Z depicted
the low-level circulation quite well and there were some 26-kt wind
vectors on the edge of the path swath, which were just east of the
coldest convective cloud tops. Assuming that some stronger wind
speeds existed west of those scatterometer-derived winds, the
initial intensity has been maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. It
should be noted that this intensity estimate is lower than the 45-kt
and 35-kt subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates provided
by TAFB and SAB, respectively.

Terry's motion remains a little north of due west, or 280/12 kt. A
general westward motion is expected for the next several days as
Terry moves along the southern periphery of a strong subtropical
ridge that extends westward across most of the eastern North Pacific
basin. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly clustered around the
previous forecast track, so only minor tweaks were made, with the
new official forecast track lying down the middle of the track model
guidance envelope.

While mid-level dry air intrusions had been inhibiting convective
development during the previous 18 h or so, the more recent cluster
of vigorous thunderstorms persisting near Terry's center might be a
signal that the cyclone is mixing out at least some of the dry air
from the inner-core region. Moreover, the latest GFS- and
ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance now indicates that moderate
mid-level wind shear that had been hindering development has abated
and is expected to remain near zero while the deep-layer shear is
forecast to remain low at less than 10 kt for the next couple of
days. This change in the environmental wind flow affecting the
cyclone would argue for at least some modest strengthening to occur.
For now, the new NHC intensity forecast has simply pulled back the
rate of weakening through the next 48 hours, keeping Terry as a
30-kt depression during that time. However, if the aforementioned
favorable environmental conditions persist in subsequent models
runs, then a change to a strengthening trend would be warranted, as
indicated by the bulk of the latest intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 11.1N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 11.5N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 11.7N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 11.7N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 11.5N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 11.0N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#73 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:44 am

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 AM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

Convective bursts continue to pulse over the western portion of
Terry's circulation. An 0846 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass showed
that the overall convective organization is poor and that the
low-level circulation appears broad. Although Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates still support tropical storm intensity,
scatterometer data over the past 24 hours have revealed winds
around 25 kt. Given the typically undersampling of the ASCAT
instrument the intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be
generous.

Although the shear that has been plaguing Terry could decrease over
the next day or so, intrusions of dry mid-level air are likely to
continue to prevent strengthening. Additionally, as the storm
moves westward later this week the overall environment is forecast
to become more stable, and this is expected to result in Terry
weakening and degenerating into a remnant low or trough of low
pressure by day 4. That is supported by the ECMWF and UKMET models,
however the GFS continues to show the possibility of
re-strengthening. Based on current trends, the official forecast
continues to place more weight on the ECMWF/UKMET solutions.

Terry continues to move a little north of due west or 280/12 kt.
The cyclone should maintain a general westward heading over the
next few days as it moves along the southern periphery of a strong
subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. Although the dynamical
models agree on the overall track scenario, there is some along-
track spread, therefore the official forecast remains close to the
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 11.1N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 11.3N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 11.5N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 11.4N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 11.2N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 10.8N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 10.5N 126.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#74 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:22 pm

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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#75 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:42 pm

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
200 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

Conventional satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data show
that Terry barely classifies as a tropical cyclone. The ASCAT data
indicate that the center has become less defined over the past 24
hours. The circulation is still broadly closed, but it is
elongated with a northeast to southwest orientation. In addition,
deep convection has continued to pulse around the western portion
of the broad circulation, but there has not been much organization
to the convection over the past 12 to 24 hours. The scatterometer
data also revealed peak winds of around 20 kt, but the initial
intensity is only reduced to 25 kt for now, but that could be
generous.

Intrusions of drier mid-level air and some mid-level shear
continue to plague the system. As the cyclone moves westward, the
overall environment is expected to become more stable, which should
result in further weakening. Terry could degenerate into a trough
of low pressure at any time over the next few days, but if it does
not it is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low
within 2-3 days.

Terry's motion is still 280/12 kt. There is again no change to the
track forecast reasoning. The cyclone or its remnants should
continue to head westward over the next few days to the south of a
strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific waters. The
updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
again close to the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 11.6N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 11.7N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 11.6N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 11.3N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 10.9N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#76 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:38 pm

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021

Terry is exhibiting a bursting convective pattern in geostationary
satellite imagery. Recently, a new burst with infrared cloud tops
colder than -70 deg C has emerged in the western semicircle.
However, AMSR2 microwave data showed that the low-level circulation
is still broad and somewhat elongated. Earlier scatterometer data
indicated the system was a marginal tropical cyclone, with the
strongest winds of around 20 kt located well northeast of the center
and outside of the active convection. The convective organization
has not improved, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt for this
advisory. Hopefully, new scatterometer data later tonight helps
assess Terry's intensity and status as a tropical cyclone.

A low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern North Pacific is steering
the depression westward, or 280/12 kt. Terry is forecast to move
generally westward for the next several days with little change to
the overall steering pattern expected. The official NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, with only minor
adjustments that move Terry slightly faster in agreement with the
latest track consensus aids.

Despite moving over warm (27 deg C) SSTs within a low deep-layer
shear environment, Terry has struggled to sustain organized
convection. This is most likely due to intrusions of dry air that
have periodically disrupted Terry's organization. Most of the global
models show Terry remaining a depression and eventually opening up
into a trough later this week. A notable exception is the GFS, which
indicates some potential for restrengthening by Thursday as the
cyclone moves over slightly warmer waters. The official NHC
intensity forecast keeps Terry a depression through midweek, with
the system degenerating into a remnant low early Friday and a trough
shortly thereafter. This forecast lies on the lower end of the
intensity guidance, and slightly below the IVCN consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 11.9N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 12.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 11.9N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 11.6N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 11.4N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 11.1N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#77 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:23 am

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
100 AM PST Wed Nov 10 2021

After undergoing a brief convective bursting pattern, thunderstorm
activity in the western semicircle of the Terry's circulation
appears to have morphed into what appears to be a small squall line
that is propagating westward away from the center. Recent
scatterometer data indicated a small patch of 22-kt winds north of
the center, so the intensity is being maintained at 25 kt, keeping
Terry as a marginal tropical depression. The aforementioned ASCAT
data also indicated that Terry's inner-core wind field was elongated
east-to-west and that the low-level center was less defined compared
to 12 hours ago.

A low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern North Pacific is steering
Terry westward, or 270/13 kt. The small cyclone is forecast to move
generally westward over the next few days with little change to
the general easterly steering flow expected. The new official track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and lies along
the southern edge of the tightly packed track guidance envelope.

Entrainment of dry mid-level air is forecast to continue for the
next couple of days while the cyclone moves over slightly cooler
water, with that negative combination of environmental parameters
expected to prevent any significant convective organization and
resultant strengthening from occurring. In fact, the latest model
guidance suggests that Terry could devolve into a remnant low or
open up into an inverted trough at any time during the next 72
hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, following a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models,
which is a little below the intensity consensus models IVCN and
NOAA-HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 11.8N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 11.8N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 11.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 11.4N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 11.2N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 10.9N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#78 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 10, 2021 9:42 am

Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
700 AM PST Wed Nov 10 2021

Conventional satellite imagery shows that Terry's cloud pattern has
changed little overnight, and the depression remains a poorly
organized tropical cyclone. A fortuitous 1142 UTC SSMIS microwave
pass consisted of fragmented curved bands south and well to the west
of a southwest to northeast elongated surface center. The initial
intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory.

Dry, stable air intrusion and slightly cooler oceanic sea surface
temperatures should inhibit any further strengthening from
occurring through the forecast period. The large-scale models and
the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance are in agreement with Terry
degenerating into a remnant low by Friday, if not sooner, and
dissipating over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, following a compromise of
the aforementioned guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.

Terry's initial motion is still estimated to be 270/13 kt. There is
no change to the track forecast reasoning. Terry is expected to
continue on a westward heading during the next few days within the
low- to mid-level steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to
the north of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast, once again,
follows the better performing HCCA and TVCE multi-model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 11.7N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 11.6N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 11.4N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 11.2N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 10.9N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 10.6N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Depression

#79 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:46 pm

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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Remnants

#80 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 10, 2021 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Terry Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
100 PM PST Wed Nov 10 2021

...TERRY DISSIPATES OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 118.3W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Terry were located near
latitude 11.7 North, longitude 118.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The winds associated with the remnants of Terry should gradually
subside through the end of the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.


Remnants Of Terry Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
100 PM PST Wed Nov 10 2021

Satellite-derived wind data from a combination of Metop-A and B
scatterometer overpasses today indicate that the surface circulation
of Terry has opened up into a trough of low pressure. Therefore,
this is the last NHC advisory on this system. The initial
intensity is being held at 25 kt based on the scatterometer data.
Increasing vertical wind shear and the system's close proximity to
the Intertropical Convergence Zone should prevent the disturbance
from regenerating.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 11.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF TERRY
12H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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