EPAC: TERRY - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#41 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Nov 05, 2021 7:43 pm

Yeah I don't really see this doing much. May even become a remnant low soon.
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#42 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Nov 05, 2021 7:55 pm

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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#43 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:36 pm

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021

The depression remains weak and disheveled. Satellite images show
disorganized and transient patches of deep convection surrounding
the center, and the cloud pattern has generally changed little for
much of the day. The initial intensity is again held at 30 kt,
which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity
estimates.

Dry and stable air, partly from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event, continues to entrain into the circulation, which is
likely the reason why the system has been struggling. Despite
relatively low wind shear, continued stable air should prevent
strengthening in the short term. In fact, the depression could even
degenerate into a remnant low this weekend. By early next week,
however, the system is forecast to move into a more favorable
environment, and gradual strengthening is possible at that time.
The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and in
line with the majority of the normally skillful models.

The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 10
kt. This motion should continue through Saturday due to the
influence of strong northeasterly low-level flow funneling through
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. From Sunday through the middle of next
week, a slightly faster westward motion is forecast as a mid-level
ridge becomes well established to the north of the cyclone. The new
NHC track forecast is a touch to the south of the previous one,
trending toward a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. This forecast
is slightly south of the consensus aids, which could be biased to
the north due to the UKMET, which is well north of the other models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 8.9N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 8.7N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 8.4N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 8.4N 100.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 8.7N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 9.6N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 10.4N 112.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 10.8N 117.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2021 4:57 am

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

The depression's associated deep convection remains poorly
organized, and recent ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data indicate
that the inner-core wind field is elongated northeast to southwest.
In addition, the highest ASCAT wind speeds noted were 25-27 kt.
Based on that ASCAT data, the intensity has been lowered to 25 kt,
which is consistent the T1.0 and T1.5 satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB, respectively.

The depression is moving just south of due west, or 260/12 kt. A
westward to west-northwestward motion along the southern periphery
of a sprawling deep-layer ridge entrenched to the north and
northwest of the cyclone is forecast to continue for the next 5
days. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies near or a tad south of the tightly-packed consensus
track models.

Entrainment of dry air mid- and upper-level air from the south is
expected to prevent any significant organization of deep convection
from occuring for the next 24 h or so despite the very low vertical
shear conditions of around 5 kt. Thereafter, the combination of low
shear, a slightly more moist environment, and warmer sea-surface
temperatures of 27.5-28C should allow for some modest strengthening
to occur on days 2-5. The latest NHC official intensity forecast is
the same as the the previous forecast, and closely follows an
average of the various simple- and corrected intensity consensus
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 8.6N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 8.4N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 8.2N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 8.3N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 9.3N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 9.6N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 10.3N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 10.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#45 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2021 10:12 am

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

After struggling to produce much in the way of deep convection
yesterday, a large nocturnal deep convective burst, with
overshooting cloud tops as cold as -85 C, occurred near the
estimated center of the depression, though this activity is
beginning to wane. An 0815 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass also
suggested modest organization under the cirrus, with some banding
features present in the deep convection. While last night's
scatterometer derived winds only topped out at 27 kt, the most
recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is at T2.0/30
kt. The latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is even higher at
T2.5/35 kt. These estimates support bringing the intensity back up
to 30 kt for this advisory.

Using both scatterometer and microwave fixes, the depression has
maintained a south of due west heading over the past 12-24 hours,
with the latest motion estimated at 260/12 kt. This general heading
is expected to continue for the next several days with a gradual
bend poleward in the latter half of the forecast period as the
cyclone rounds the southern side of a expensive mid-level ridge
centered over Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast has been
adjusted just a bit faster, blending the tightly clustered
consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

The depression's overnight convective burst was well anticipated by
the both the GFS and ECMWF simulated IR brightness temperature and
both models show more persistent activity continuing through the
forecast period. Despite this factor, neither model shows much, if
any, additional strengthening. This result is interesting, since
both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicate low 200-850
hPa vertical wind shear, 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures, and a
fairly moist mid-level environment. One factor possibly limiting the
intensity forecast is the possibility of higher westerly mid-level
shear undercutting the more favorable deep-layer shear. In addition,
the tropical cyclone is forecast to remain at fairly low-latitude
which can sometimes limit vortex spin-up in a lower Coriolis
environment. Even the overzealous HWRF model has come back down to
earth, showing only a peak intensity as a more modest tropical
storm. The latest NHC intensity forecast does still show TD18-E
eventually becoming a tropical storm in 36 h, but does not show any
additional development. This forecast is a blend between the
slightly higher intensity consensus aids (IVCN, HCCA) with the more
pessimistic global model guidance (UKMET, GFS, ECMWF) which do not
indicate any additional intensification over the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 8.4N 96.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 8.2N 98.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 8.1N 100.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 8.4N 103.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 8.9N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 9.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 10.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 10.7N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#46 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:52 pm

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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#47 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:20 pm

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Barely hanging on technically no true 270 degree westerlies.
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#48 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2021 3:44 pm

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 PM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

The structure of TD18-E looks a bit ragged this afternoon. The
earlier convective burst has decayed during the diurnal minimum,
though new convective cells are redeveloping to the
southwest and northeast of the estimated center position. A 1549
UTC ASCAT-B pass had peak winds of 29-kt on the north side of the
circulation. The scatterometer wind data also revealed that the
circulation is more elongated from southwest-to-northeast than 24
hours ago with the ambiguities suggesting it is barely
closed. For now, the system will be kept as a tropical depression,
with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt, matching the T2.0/30 kt
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB this afternoon.

The depression continues to move just south of due west at 265/12
kt. There has been little change to the forecast track reasoning,
with a prominent mid-level ridge over Mexico steering the system
generally westward. The depression could gain a bit of latitude
from 24-72 hours as the ridge weakens a bit over Mexico, but
afterwards another mid-level ridge takes its place west of the Baja
California Peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous forecast, and lies closest to a blend
between the GFS and ECMWF runs (GFEX) this cycle.

While the depression this afternoon looks more convectively
organized than 24 hours ago, the current elongated structure is not
favorable for intensification in the short term, despite seemingly
conducive environmental conditions (low shear, warm sea-surface
temperatures, moist mid-level air). While the intensity consensus
aids (ICON, HCCA) show a bit more intensification than before, I'd
like to see if the fragile vortex is able to survive another 24-36
hours traversing the low-latitudes before showing more significant
intensification. In addition, the global models continue to show
little if any strengthening. The latest NHC forecast is a carbon
copy of the previous one and is closest in intensity to the latest
ECMWF and LGEM guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 8.3N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 8.2N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 8.3N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 8.8N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 9.2N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 9.8N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 10.2N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 10.4N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 10.5N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#49 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:02 pm

"Pathetic" is an understatement. :lol:
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#50 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 06, 2021 9:40 pm

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021

The structure of the depression has not changed much during the past
several hours. Deep convection continues to pulse near the center
and in bands on the system's south side. Last-light visible
satellite images indicate that the circulation is quite stretched,
likely due to the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. In fact,
confidence in the center location is low and somewhat based on
continuity. Hopefully the next round of ASCAT data and microwave
images will provide a better look at how organized the circulation
is overnight. For now, the system is held as a 30-kt depression
following the Dvorak estimates and the earlier ASCAT data.

The depression continues to move just south of due west at 265/11
kt, and the system is at a very low latitude near 8N. This motion
is expected to continue overnight, but a general westward to
west-northwestward motion is likely to occur after that as the
system moves within the flow on the south side of a low- to
mid-level ridge. Except for the UKMET, which is a northern outlier,
most of the models show a similar solution with some speed
differences. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and just an update of the previous one.

The system has been steady state since it formed a little more than
two days ago despite being in generally favorable large-scale
conditions. Some of the models suggest that the depression will
slowly gain strength during the next several days, which is possible
since the environmental conditions are forecast to be at least
marginally conducive. However, since the depression has not
strengthened yet and because the circulation might not be well
organized, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the low side of the
guidance envelope through the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 8.3N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 8.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 8.8N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 9.6N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 10.0N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 10.3N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 10.6N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 10.6N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#51 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Nov 06, 2021 9:51 pm

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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#52 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2021 5:55 am

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
300 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

The disheveled convective appearance of the depression has not
changed much since the previous advisory. However, recent ASCAT
scatterometer surface wind data indicate that the wind field has
actually become a little better defined. The ASCAT data also
indicated a small patch of wind speeds of 27-28 kt north of the
center, so the intensity remains at 30 kt for this advisory, which
is consistent with the latest subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates.

The depression is moving due west now, or 270/12 kt. The small
cyclone is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward along
the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the
next 5 days. This stable synoptic flow pattern has resulted in
little change to the previous forecast track, and the new NHC
advisory track lies along or just south of the middle of the
consensus track model envelope.

Although the associated convection remains poorly organized, the
improved low-level wind field noted in the aforementioned ASCAT data
wouldn't require much more convective organization for the cyclone
to reach tropical storm status at any time during the next 60 h or
so while the vertical wind shear remains low at only around 5 kt. By
72 h, however, the shear is forecast to increase from the southwest
and west at 20-25 kt while the cyclone moves westward into a
progressively drier airmass. That negative combination is expected
to induce weakening by 96 h, with the system degenerating into a
remnant low by 120 h, if not sooner. The new NHC intensity forecast
is just an update of the previous advisory, and closely follows a
blend of the the GFS and ECMWF models intensity forecasts, which
show a lower intensity on days 4 and 5 as compared to the higher
HWRF-/HMON-based consensus intensity models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 8.2N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 8.5N 102.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 9.3N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 9.7N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 10.1N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 10.2N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 10.4N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 10.4N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#53 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2021 11:34 am

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
900 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

The depression's convective pattern remains quite disorganized
this morning. Although there are several blobs of convection and
areas of colder cloud tops, there is no evidence of curved banding
in both convection satellite and recent microwave data. It is
difficult to tell if the circulation has become any better defined
since the ASCAT overpass last evening. Hopefully the ASCAT
instrument will provide a better assessment of the system's
structure and strength later today. Subjective and objective Dvorak
intensity estimates are in the 30-35 kt range, and given the lack
of organization and earlier scatterometer data, the initial wind
speed is held at 30 kt.

The center of the depression has been difficult to locate this
morning, but recent fixes and continuity from the previous advisory
suggest it is moving westward or 275/12 kt. A deep-layer ridge to
the north of the depression should continue to steer it westward to
west-northwestward during the next several days. The model envelope
has trended a little farther north this cycle, but the NHC forecast
remains similar to the previous advisory, along the southern edge
of the envelope closest to the GFS, HWRF, and HMON solutions.

The depression is forecast to remain in low wind shear conditions
during the next several days, but a drier and more stable airmass
just to the north is likely to limit intensification. The NHC
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and still shows
the system reaching tropical storm status within the next couple
of days. By 72 hours, the vertical shear is predicted to increase
and the mid-level humidity in the surrounding environment is
forecast to decrease. These negative factors should cause
weakening and degeneration of the system to a remnant low by 96
hours, and dissipation by day 5. This is supported by the GFS and
ECMWF models which weaken the system within the ITCZ after midweek.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 8.2N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 8.7N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 9.5N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 9.8N 110.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 10.1N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 10.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 10.2N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#54 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 07, 2021 1:18 pm

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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 07, 2021 1:48 pm

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Probably a tropical storm again.
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#56 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 07, 2021 1:51 pm

TXPZ22 KNES 071758
TCSENP

A. 18E (NONAME)

B. 07/1730Z

C. 7.8N

D. 101.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. MET=2.0 AND PT=2.5. FT
IS BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/1339Z 7.5N 101.0W SSMIS


...KONON
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Nov 07, 2021 3:51 pm

And another name!

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Terry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
300 PM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM TERRY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.5N 102.6W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Last edited by galaxy401 on Sun Nov 07, 2021 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2021 3:54 pm

Tropical Storm Terry Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
300 PM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

The overall organization of the depression has become slightly
better since this morning. Recent one-minute GOES-16 visible
satellite imagery suggests that the center is better defined and
there has been a persistent cluster of convection just southeast
of the estimated center since this morning. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were unchanged at 30-35 kt,
but ADT and SATCON estimates are in the 39-42 kt range. Although a
1410 UTC ASCAT-A overpass missed the center, it did reveal an area
of 30-40 kt winds along the edge of the swath, however the
strongest vectors were flagged due to rain contamination. Given
the recent improvement in both center definition and the persistent
convection near that feature, the intensity is increased to 35 kt
for this advisory.

Terry is moving just north of due west at 275/12 kt. The steering
currents ahead of the storm remains well established with a strong
deep-layer ridge located to the north. That feature should guide
Terry westward to west-northwestward at about 12 kt for the next
several days. The NHC track guidance is in good agreement on the
overall scenario, but there is spread regarding the cyclone's
forward speed. The NHC track leans closer to the slightly more
southern and deeper GFS solution. This is along the southern
side of the guidance envelope and fairly close to the speed of
the various consensus aids.

The storm is forecast to remain within low vertical wind shear
conditions over the next couple of days, however it is likely to
ingest drier and more stable air that is located just to the north.
That stable air is expected to keep significant strengthening from
occurring, but some limited intensification is possible during the
next day or two. By Tuesday night or Wednesday, environmental
conditions are forecast become more hostile with an increase in
vertical shear and decreasing mid-level humidity. Those factors
should cause weakening and degeneration to a remnant low by 96
hours. The global models indicate that the system will open up into
a trough along the ITCZ by day 5 and that is reflected in the
official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 8.5N 102.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 9.4N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 9.7N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 9.8N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 9.9N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 10.0N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 10.0N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 07, 2021 5:40 pm

First use of Terry since 1985.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: TERRY - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 07, 2021 8:48 pm

TXPZ22 KNES 080010
TCSENP

A. 18E (TERRY)

B. 07/2330Z

C. 8.6N

D. 103.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.0. THE
MET AND PT ARE EQUAL TO 2.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPING TREND OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT
LLCC POSITION AND WITH BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE NOT CLEAR CUT IN RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI
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