EPAC: SANDRA - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 07, 2021 1:22 pm

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Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 07, 2021 1:56 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 071818
TCSENP

A. 19E (NONAME)

B. 07/1730Z

C. 13.7N

D. 114.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...COR FOR TYPO. SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR
TIGHTLY-DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND AN EXPOSED LLCC <1.25 DEG FROM A SMALL
COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON


CI should be T2.5 here - this is a typo.
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Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2021 2:07 pm

Sandra.

EP, 19, 2021110718, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1147W, 35, 1006, TS
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Re: EPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 07, 2021 2:26 pm

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Nameable.
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2021 3:47 pm

Tropical Storm Sandra Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 PM PST Sun Nov 07 2021

This afternoon, deep-convective activity has decreased in coverage
and intensity, shearing off to the east and revealing a well-defined
low-level circulation. Even though the convection has waned, an
earlier 1549 UTC ASCAT-A pass revealed a fairly large region of
30-35 kt winds primarily to the east of the circulation. Based
primarily on the scatterometer data, TD 19-E was upgraded to
35-kt Tropical Storm Sandra at 1800 UTC and that will be the
intensity for this advisory. It should be noted that the satellite
presentation was better organized this morning, when both SAB and
TAFB provided CI 2.5/35 kt estimates, and it is likely this system
was already tropical storm earlier today.

The exposed low-level circulation has been moving left of the
previous forecast track this afternoon, with the current estimated
motion at 285/10 kt. The track guidance is insistent that a more
poleward motion will resume soon, but its possible the storm's
direction of motion is dependent on additional down-shear convective
bursts helping to tug the center more poleward. As the system
becomes more vertically shallow, the west-northwest motion should
bend more westward and then west-southwestward as the circulation
gradually decays. The track guidance this cycle is further to the
left in the short-term, mainly based on the initial motion, but
corrects to near the same place by the end of the forecast period.
The latest NHC track forecast has also been shifted further south
early on, but ends up near the previous one by 60 hours, close to
the tightly clustered consensus aids.

Assuming that convection will redevelop near or east of the center,
possibly during the diurnal convective maximum tonight, Sandra is
expected to maintain its intensity for the next 12-24 hours.
Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear should help to import
drier mid-level air that should finish off any additional
convection. Forecast simulated IR imagery from the GFS and ECMWF
suggests Sandra becoming devoid of convection by 48-60 h, and the
latest NHC forecast still shows the cyclone becoming a post-tropical
remnant low by this time frame. The NHC intensity forecast is in
decent agreement with the intensity guidance and is quite similar to
the latest SHIPS/LGEM, though remains lower than the HWRF/HMON runs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 14.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 14.5N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 15.3N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.7N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 15.5N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:52 pm

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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 07, 2021 8:49 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 080002
TCSENP
CCA

A. 19E (SANDRA)

B. 07/2330Z

C. 14.1N

D. 115.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR STORM NAME. CIRCULAR TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AROUND A LLCC THAT IS LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A LARGE COLD
OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT EQUAL TO 2.0. 4/10 BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND
THE LLCC HOWEVER THE BANDING FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT. THE MET
AND PT AGREE WITH THE DT BASED ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/2126Z 14.0N 115.5W AMSR2


...SAMBUCCI
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 07, 2021 9:40 pm

Tropical Storm Sandra Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
700 PM PST Sun Nov 07 2021

Sandra was briefly devoid of convective activity earlier today, but
its organization has somewhat improved during the past several
hours. Bursts of deep convection have been noted in the northeastern
quadrant of the tropical cyclone. The well-defined low-level center
became exposed earlier today due to 20 kt of southwesterly
deep-layer shear over Sandra, but the center has recently moved
closer to the edge of a small convective cloud mass. The objective
and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt, and the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Hopefully, a
scatterometer pass samples the storm later tonight to help assess
its intensity and structure.

A ridge to the north and east of Sandra is steering the cyclone
west-northwestward, and its estimated motion is 285/10 kt. Sandra is
expected to gradually turn westward over the next couple of days, as
the vertically shallow circulation becomes increasingly steered by
the low-level flow. Little change is noted in the latest track
guidance, and the official NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one, with just slight southward adjustments based on the
consensus aids. Moderate (15-20 kt) southwesterly shear is forecast
to persist over Sandra for the next 12-24 h, then strengthen
thereafter. Given that Sandra has already struggled to maintain
organized convection, the system is likely to be short-lived. The
cyclone is expected to weaken on Monday as the increasing shear
strips away its remaining convection. Sandra should degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low early Tuesday and then open up into a
trough and dissipate by Wednesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast
remains in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 14.2N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 14.7N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.2N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 15.4N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0000Z 15.1N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:51 am

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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 08, 2021 4:26 am

Tropical Storm Sandra Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 AM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

Sandra's convective pattern is characteristic of a sheared tropical
cyclone, with the bulk of the convection now displaced into the
northeastern quadrant of the cyclone owing to southwesterly vertical
wind shear of around 20 kt. A 0257Z ASCAT-A pass revealed a tight,
well-defined low-level circulation center, but with peak surface
winds of only 28 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, the
intensity is being maintained at 35 kt since deep convection with
cloud tops to -80C has re-developed in the vicinity of those ASCAT
winds, possibly resulting in a local enhancement in those wind
speeds.

Conventional satellite fixes and the aforementioned ASCAT wind data
indicate that Sandra's forward speed has slowed considerably, and
the initial motion estimate is now 285/06 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to remain along the southern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge for the next few days, resulting in a slow
west-northwestward motion today, followed by a westward turn on
Tuesday with that motion continuing into Wednesday. The new NHC
forecast track is a little to the left or south of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the NHC guidance
envelope, which a tad south of the consensus models.

Moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear is expected to continue
affecting Sandra for the next few days, while mid-level moisture
and sea-surface temperatures gradually decrease. The combination of
these unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to result in
a gradual weakening of the cyclone, with Sandra now forecast to
become a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a
remnant low pressure system by late Tuesday. The new official
intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory,
and closely follows a blend of HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
models and the GFS and ECMWF global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 14.1N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 14.9N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 14.8N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z 14.6N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:52 am

Tropical Storm Sandra Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
700 AM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

Conventional satellite imagery and a 1206 UTC SSMIS microwave
overpass indicate that Sandra's less-defined surface circulation
remains sheared to the southwest of the warming cloud top
convective mass. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB are unchanged from the previous 6 hr estimates, and
the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

UW-CIMSS shear analysis and the statistical SHIPS models (ECMWF and
GFS) indicate that the 15-20 kt of southwesterly shear will persist
and increase in magnitude by Tuesday evening while the surrounding
thermodynamic environment gradually becomes more stable. Given
these current and predicted inhibiting factors, Sandra is forecast
to become a depression by this evening, and degenerate into a
remnant low by Tuesday evening. The NHC intensity forecast is an
update of the previous one, and is based on the the NOAA HFIP
corrected consensus model and agrees with the GFS and ECMWF global
model solutions.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/6
kt. A subtropical ridge located to the north of Sandra should
steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest through this evening.
Through the remainder of the forecast, the global models show the
aforementioned low-to mid-level ridge building slightly toward the
northwest of Sandra which should cause the cyclone to turn toward
the west by early Tuesday. The official track forecast follows
suit and is once again adjusted a bit toward the left of the
previous forecast and is nudged closer to the TCVE simple
multi-model forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.0N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 15.1N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.7N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1200Z 14.3N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:31 pm

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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Depression

#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sandra Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
100 PM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

...WEAKENING SANDRA FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 117.5W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sandra
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 117.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
A turn toward the west, with an increase in forward speed, is
forecast later today and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Sandra is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday, and
dissipate on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Depression

#34 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:41 pm

Tropical Depression Sandra Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
700 PM PST Mon Nov 08 2021

Sandra's satellite presentation continues to degrade. Visible
imagery shows that the low-level center has been exposed for most
of the day, with limited deep convection located north and east of
the center. Latest analyses indicate that the depression is
embedded in an environment characterized by significant
southwesterly vertical wind shear, and Sandra is barely hanging on
as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity for this advisory has
been maintained at 30 kt, primarily based on earlier ASCAT data,
which indicated these winds were limited to the northeast and east
semicircles.

Sandra has been moving generally toward the west today, but there
have been some short-term wobbles in the track as occasional pulses
of deep convection helped to pull the center slightly northward. The
smoothed initial motion estimate for this advisory is 270/13 kt.
The updated track forecast anticipates that surface high pressure
building north of the system will keep it on general westward
track, with a slight turn toward the west-southwest on Tuesday.
This is in line with a tightly clustered guidance suite, and very
close to the TVCN consensus.

Guidance indicates that southwesterly vertical wind shear on the
order of 20-30 kt will persist, as the decaying cyclone remains
between an upper-level anticyclone to the east and a trough to the
northwest. This environment is not conducive for organized deep
convection to persist over the center, and Sandra is forecast to
soon degenerate into a remnant low. The updated intensity forecast
indicates this will occur early Tuesday, with dissipation following
soon thereafter, closely following SHIPS guidance and the ECMWF
global model solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 15.3N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 15.2N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0000Z 14.7N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:22 am

Tropical Depression Sandra Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 AM PST Tue Nov 09 2021

Satellite classifications and recent scatterometer surface wind
data indicate that Sandra is barely hanging on a tropical cyclone.
The closest convection, which has been waning over the past few
hours, is located about 75 nmi east of the fully exposed low-level
circulation center. That distance barely meets the Dvorak criteria
for classifying Sandra as a tropical depression. The intensity has
been lowered to 25 kt based on 0235Z ASCAT-A scatterometer data
that revealed a few 25-kt surface wind vectors located about 50 nmi
north of the cyclone's center. Additional weakening is anticipated
due to the continued combination of strong southerly vertical wind
shear of 25-30 kt and intrusions of dry mid-level air. As a result,
Sandra is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and
dissipate by Wednesday.

Sandra is now moving a little south of due west, or 260/12 kt. A
strong ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep Sandra moving
westward to west-southwestward through Wednesday. The new NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and lies close
to the middle of the various consensus track models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 14.8N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Depression

#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:46 am

Tropical Depression Sandra Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
700 AM PST Tue Nov 09 2021

Bursts of deep convection have been forming well to the northeast
of Sandra's exposed surface center since Monday evening, but
haven't been persistent, during the past 12 hours, to be considered
as organized convection. Accordingly, the system will likely be
classified as a remnant low this afternoon. Stiff, persistent
southerly shear and a stabilizing surrounding atmosphere should
cause further weakening, and the remnant low is forecast to open up
into a trough on Wednesday.

Sandra has continued to move a little south of due west, or 260/11
kt during the past 6 hours. A strengthening ridge to the north of
the cyclone should influence a westward to west-southwestward
through Wednesday. The official NHC forecast is in line with the
various consensus aids and lies close to the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.6N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.1N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Depression

#37 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:25 pm

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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Remnants

#38 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:40 pm

Remnants of Sandra Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021
100 PM PST Tue Nov 09 2021

The earlier burst of deep convection that popped up during the
diurnal convective maximum has since dissipated, and Sandra's
surface circulation has opened up into a trough of low pressure.
Therefore, this is the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity is
held at 25 kt based on a recent METOP-B scatterometer pass that
indicated a southwest to northeast oriented trough with a few 25 kt
winds well to the north and northeast. Strong, persistent southerly
shear and a dry, stable airmass should result in any attempt of
regeneration.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.2N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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