ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Nov 09, 2021 7:52 pm

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
AL, 96, 2021111000, , BEST, 0, 353N, 602W, 60, 982, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 40, 60, 60, 1010, 240, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 052, SPAWNINVEST, al772021 to al962021,
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:16 pm

Image

When 96L had a 0/0 chance merely 12 hours ago
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:33 pm

TXNT27 KNES 100038
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 09/2330Z

C. 35.3N

D. 61.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...5.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. NO
MET AND PT AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED FROM ST TO TROPICAL WITH NO
CLASSIFICATION 24 HOURS AGO. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby zhukm29 » Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:37 pm

Already 60kts :eek: imagine if it transitions with 65kt winds, I don't think that has ever happened before...

Definitely brings up the age-old question over whether a storm's first advisory could be a hurricane!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:53 pm

Already looks like a tropical storm!!! I'd go pretty high on this.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby zhukm29 » Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:12 pm

zhukm29 wrote:Already 60kts :eek: imagine if it transitions with 65kt winds, I don't think that has ever happened before...

Definitely brings up the age-old question over whether a storm's first advisory could be a hurricane!


Did some digging and apparently Noel 2001's first advisory was a hurricane - however, it was a subtropical storm before becoming a hurricane, but subtropical storms were not named at the time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby Hammy » Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:34 pm

zhukm29 wrote:Already 60kts :eek: imagine if it transitions with 65kt winds, I don't think that has ever happened before...

Definitely brings up the age-old question over whether a storm's first advisory could be a hurricane!


I believe both Lili in 1984 and Noel in 2001 started out as hurricanes on their first operational advisory, but shows how uncommon it is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:07 pm

Up to 50%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong non-tropical low centered about 350 miles northeast of Bermuda continue to show signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite wind data indicate that winds of near hurricane force are occurring south of the center. This system has not yet acquired enough tropical cyclone characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm. However, additional development is possible during the next day or two, and a subtropical storm could form during this time. After that time, the system is forecast to move over colder water and become absorbed by another non-tropical low. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:14 pm

That was unexpected
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby zzh » Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:37 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:59 pm


Accounting for typical undersampling this is likely hurricane-force. Could see a Noel 2001-like transition.

I should also note that this further makes me believe Theta last year around this time did in fact achieve hurricane intensity since it was basically what 96L is now minus the fronts (sheared somewhat but had ASCAT of 60 kt). Appearance was identical too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby Dean_175 » Wed Nov 10, 2021 6:08 am

What happens if a hurricane force non-tropical low develops subtropical characteristics? A subtropical hurricane?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 10, 2021 8:02 am

Dean_175 wrote:What happens if a hurricane force non-tropical low develops subtropical characteristics? A subtropical hurricane?


The classification "subtropical" is intensity independent. It's still a subtropical storm whether winds are 35 kts or 135 kts. This storm system is still attached to a cold front. If it separates over the next 24 hours, then it will be STS Adria. Doesn't have much of a future.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby ChrisH-UK » Wed Nov 10, 2021 9:04 am

Invest 96L looking nice this morning.

Source GOES-16 CIRA GeoColor - https://col.st/2Wle4

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby ChrisH-UK » Wed Nov 10, 2021 9:37 am

Latest ASCAT is showing winds in the 40-50 knt range.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby KirbyDude25 » Wed Nov 10, 2021 9:55 am

ChrisH-UK wrote:Latest ASCAT is showing winds in the 40-50 knt range.

https://i.imgur.com/Mppb9vs.png

A lot of the wind barbs look like they're 55-60 knots, with a few in the 65-70 kt range. Almost definitely a hurricane-force low.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby Teban54 » Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:01 am

wxman57 wrote:
Dean_175 wrote:What happens if a hurricane force non-tropical low develops subtropical characteristics? A subtropical hurricane?


The classification "subtropical" is intensity independent. It's still a subtropical storm whether winds are 35 kts or 135 kts. This storm system is still attached to a cold front. If it separates over the next 24 hours, then it will be STS Adria. Doesn't have much of a future.

Can a subtropical storm have 135 kts winds? :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:22 am

Teban54 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Dean_175 wrote:What happens if a hurricane force non-tropical low develops subtropical characteristics? A subtropical hurricane?


The classification "subtropical" is intensity independent. It's still a subtropical storm whether winds are 35 kts or 135 kts. This storm system is still attached to a cold front. If it separates over the next 24 hours, then it will be STS Adria. Doesn't have much of a future.

Can a subtropical storm have 135 kts winds? :lol:


Something is whacky with the climate if we have a 135 knot subtropical storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:41 pm

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/07/GOES16-TAW-07-900x540.gif

There does seem to be more convection near/over the center, versus eight hours ago.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:50 pm

Image

Looking good.
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