ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:55 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A storm-force non-tropical area of low pressure located several
hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of
showers that extend near and to the north of its center along an
associated frontal boundary. Although the shower activity has
increased near the center today, the system has not acquired
sufficient characteristics to be classified as a subtropical
cyclone. There remains only a brief period through tonight for
this system to become a subtropical storm before it reaches much
cooler waters Friday morning. By this weekend, the system is
expected to be absorbed by a larger non-tropical low. Additional
information on this system, including Storm force wind warnings,
can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#22 Postby jconsor » Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:55 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#23 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:28 pm

The front appears to be detaching as the convection establishes a tighter LLC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Nov 10, 2021 5:59 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#25 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 10, 2021 6:40 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Wed Nov 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A storm-force non-tropical area of low pressure located about 750
miles east-northeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of showers
that extend near and to the north of its center along an associated
frontal boundary. Although this shower activity shows signs or
organization, the system has not acquired sufficient characteristics
to be classified as a subtropical cyclone. There is a chance for
the low to become a subtropical storm tonight or early Friday before
it reaches cooler waters. By this weekend, the system is expected
to be absorbed by a larger non-tropical low. Additional information
on this system, including hurricane-force wind warnings, can be
found in High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#26 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 10, 2021 7:35 pm


Hopefully it’s able to consolidate some more so it can be recognized as such. Then the NHC can have an earlier genesis in its post-season TCR.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#27 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:09 am

96L at daybreak. Looks like it is still attached to the front that it is with it is also getting to the point where it will get swept up north.

Source GOES-18 CIRA ProxyVisible - https://col.st/Jrzo8

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#28 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:08 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a storm-force non-tropical
area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-northeast of
Bermuda have changed little in organization since last night.
Although there is still a small chance the system could become a
short-lived subtropical storm today, the system is quickly moving
over cooler waters and the likelihood of subtropical development has
decreased. By this weekend, the system is expected to be absorbed by
a larger non-tropical low. Additional information on this system,
including hurricane-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#29 Postby skyline385 » Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:33 pm

10% now, glad this storm was not named. I was going to be so annoyed if we had to use the auxiliary because of some subtropical low. Personally am happy that the NHC isn't too trigger happy with naming systems attached to fronts...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 11, 2021 6:28 pm

Bye.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The large and powerful non-tropical area of low pressure located
several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland has
moved over cooler waters and is starting to merge with another
nearby non-tropical low. Thus, there is now little chance of
development into a subtropical cyclone. Additional information on
this system, including hurricane-force wind warnings, can be found
in High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#31 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Thu Nov 18, 2021 5:41 am

96L is one of those systems in which I disagree, also because it enters where nhc glossary-terms defines subtropical cyclone.
I hope in reanalysis of the system.
But the most emblematic case-error remains 92L-2012, for me an evident TS for NHC not even considered as Subtropical.

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