WPAC: INVEST 95W

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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#21 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Dec 09, 2021 1:22 am

Hopefully the GFS won't verify. The Philippines have avoided a big hit this year, and getting a big one in December would not be ideal...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#22 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 09, 2021 2:04 am

Hayabusa wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:GFS up to its old tricks again with sub 940mb typhoon..in December..in the year 2021

It only gets that strong if it tracks in a higher latitude. The ensemble also shows this the higher lat the stronger it gets. Probably when it's a flat track it tracks faster so less time over water.



A more poleward movement could also increase interaction with the trough, which helps the cyclone to spin up more..
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#23 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Dec 09, 2021 2:48 am

Ensembles are pumped up today
Image
Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#24 Postby aspen » Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:38 am

All global models are on board with low-latitude development by Sunday/Monday and a hurricane-force system by the time it reaches the Philippines later next week.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#25 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:47 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:34 am

With MJO around and the likelihood of a WWB in conjunction but also sparked by a developing SPAC system, latitude shouldn’t be an issue.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#27 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:54 pm

JTWC fix
95W INVEST 211210 0000 5.7N 144.7E WPAC 15 1010
96W INVEST 211210 0000 5.8N 150.5E WPAC 15 1010

While JMA's fix is like the mean longitude of the two invests, as if they already merged, but JMA never marked another low besides 95W
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 05N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#28 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:29 pm

Latest GFS run almost the same track as Haiyan...if this exact track pans out with a 930mb typhoon landing at full force, then Tacloban area in Leyte must be prepared.
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