WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#281 Postby Foxfires » Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:46 am

mrbagyo wrote:957.1 hPa was recorded in Song Tu Tay South West Cay (48892) at 0900 UTC ? Derived from the 3 hourly pressure tendency

https://i.imgur.com/xK7NLkF.png


How far away from the eye was this? Is it possible to estimate a pressure gradient? Is this enough to estimate min central pressure?
I feel like I've asked too many questions
Tried measuring distance using like Himawari-8 imagery and google maps distance measuring thing and I'm getting ~20km (that's like low-end, it could be 30km idk) but I'm kind of unsure because it's kind of hard to know very specific distance with satellite
This.. alludes at category 5 intensity (depending on the gradient ofc) but again I'm not sure, especially with all the people saying it's not
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#282 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 19, 2021 6:14 am

Foxfires wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:957.1 hPa was recorded in Song Tu Tay South West Cay (48892) at 0900 UTC ? Derived from the 3 hourly pressure tendency

https://i.imgur.com/xK7NLkF.png


How far away from the eye was this? Is it possible to estimate a pressure gradient? Is this enough to estimate min central pressure?
I feel like I've asked too many questions
Tried measuring distance using like Himawari-8 imagery and google maps distance measuring thing and I'm getting ~20km (that's like low-end, it could be 30km idk) but I'm kind of unsure because it's kind of hard to know very specific distance with satellite
This.. alludes at category 5 intensity (depending on the gradient ofc) but again I'm not sure, especially with all the people saying it's not


more or less 40 km. (difficult to pinpoint the exact center due to ragged eye and lack of radar data)
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#283 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:04 pm

Unfortunately, the death toll is jumping now. The number varies depending on the source, but it seems to be at 186 now.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#284 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:41 pm

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#285 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 19, 2021 4:51 pm

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#286 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:20 pm

Update: Power restored in 2 areas in Cebu City, everything else here incl my house all in the dark. Cell service is spotty and running water no longer. Neighboring Mactan apparently got much worse damage. Perhaps the high-rise buildings (which did suffer damage) and mountains somewhat shielded us? (given that wind was from the NNW) but it still was an experience I don't want to ever encounter again.

I'd say we got category 2 winds, some gusts category 3. May have been on the N edge of the eyewall but missed the eye itself. The build-up to the peak lasted much longer than the backside. Ears felt tight like a plane ride. Some parts of the city like my apartment were untouched (a mere coincidence/luck) but some parts are flattened. There was rain but it was really more of the wind that was the problem. Thankfully no storm surge. Again it really brought Cebu to its knees as the rest of those affected.

As for damage reports, they're likely to be underestimated. Cebu is the richest province in the Philippines (tenfold above the runner up) and it was the metro in the strong side... which means damage in metro Cebu alone could be >10 billion PHP. The P25 bil doesn't count Leyte and Cebu. Comms are down so it could take a while. Could have Haiyan and Bopha a run for their money $ wise, hopefully not deaths though.

Thankful for you guys and for checking on us. One Odette was enough.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#287 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:55 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Update: Power restored in 2 areas in Cebu City, everything else here incl my house all in the dark. Cell service is spotty and running water no longer. Neighboring Mactan apparently got much worse damage. Perhaps the high-rise buildings (which did suffer damage) and mountains somewhat shielded us? (given that wind was from the NNW) but it still was an experience I don't want to ever encounter again.

I'd say we got category 2 winds, some gusts category 3. May have been on the N edge of the eyewall but missed the eye itself. The build-up to the peak lasted much longer than the backside. Ears felt tight like a plane ride. Some parts of the city like my apartment were untouched (a mere coincidence/luck) but some parts are flattened. There was rain but it was really more of the wind that was the problem. Thankfully no storm surge. Again it really brought Cebu to its knees as the rest of those affected.

As for damage reports, they're likely to be underestimated. Cebu is the richest province in the Philippines (tenfold above the runner up) and it was the metro in the strong side... which means damage in metro Cebu alone could be >10 billion PHP. The P25 bil doesn't count Leyte and Cebu. Comms are down so it could take a while. Could have Haiyan and Bopha a run for their money $ wise, hopefully not deaths though.

Thankful for you guys and for checking on us. One Odette was enough.


I'm glad that you made it through, I've heard that despite the early preparations, there was a lot of damage & destruction in the Southern Philippines. :(
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#288 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:33 am

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Tropical Depression

#289 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:15 am

Rai has very rapidly weakened & is already a TD per JTWC
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Tropical Depression

#290 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:57 am

Iceresistance wrote:Rai has very rapidly weakened & is already a TD per JTWC

JTWC has amended back to TS, it's already a TD by JMA though.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Tropical Depression

#291 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:46 pm

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#292 Postby Foxfires » Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:23 pm

Foxfires wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:957.1 hPa was recorded in Song Tu Tay South West Cay (48892) at 0900 UTC ? Derived from the 3 hourly pressure tendency

https://i.imgur.com/xK7NLkF.png


How far away from the eye was this? Is it possible to estimate a pressure gradient? Is this enough to estimate min central pressure?
I feel like I've asked too many questions
Tried measuring distance using like Himawari-8 imagery and google maps distance measuring thing and I'm getting ~20km (that's like low-end, it could be 30km idk) but I'm kind of unsure because it's kind of hard to know very specific distance with satellite
This.. alludes at category 5 intensity (depending on the gradient ofc) but again I'm not sure, especially with all the people saying it's not


Ok so someone said this
Image
well now I have to figure out how far that is from the eye
Last edited by Foxfires on Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#293 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:14 am

Foxfires wrote:
Foxfires wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:957.1 hPa was recorded in Song Tu Tay South West Cay (48892) at 0900 UTC ? Derived from the 3 hourly pressure tendency

https://i.imgur.com/xK7NLkF.png


How far away from the eye was this? Is it possible to estimate a pressure gradient? Is this enough to estimate min central pressure?
I feel like I've asked too many questions
Tried measuring distance using like Himawari-8 imagery and google maps distance measuring thing and I'm getting ~20km (that's like low-end, it could be 30km idk) but I'm kind of unsure because it's kind of hard to know very specific distance with satellite
This.. alludes at category 5 intensity (depending on the gradient ofc) but again I'm not sure, especially with all the people saying it's not


Ok so someone said this
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/887577983508967455/922704437124956210/unknown.png
well now I have to figure out how far that is from the eye

That pressure reading must be in the eye since Southwest Cay did go through the eye.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#294 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:22 am

Foxfires wrote:
Foxfires wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:957.1 hPa was recorded in Song Tu Tay South West Cay (48892) at 0900 UTC ? Derived from the 3 hourly pressure tendency

https://i.imgur.com/xK7NLkF.png


How far away from the eye was this? Is it possible to estimate a pressure gradient? Is this enough to estimate min central pressure?
I feel like I've asked too many questions
Tried measuring distance using like Himawari-8 imagery and google maps distance measuring thing and I'm getting ~20km (that's like low-end, it could be 30km idk) but I'm kind of unsure because it's kind of hard to know very specific distance with satellite
This.. alludes at category 5 intensity (depending on the gradient ofc) but again I'm not sure, especially with all the people saying it's not


Ok so someone said this
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/887577983508967455/922704437124956210/unknown.png
well now I have to figure out how far that is from the eye


I showed this data to him for analysis and here's his findings. Thanks foxfires

 https://twitter.com/JoshuaCAgar/status/1473160637744562176


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Re: WPAC: RAI - Tropical Depression

#295 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:50 am

This happened in Burgos, Siargao




also in Siargao


Link: https://youtu.be/xDPEISuezHs
Last edited by mrbagyo on Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:26 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Tropical Depression

#296 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:07 am

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Tropical Depression

#297 Postby Foxfires » Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:20 pm

According to news reports at least 375 people are dead
I hate how late this thing is
Reminds me of Typhoon Gilda
Why can't typhoons let the Philippines have their Christmas in goddamn peace

According to Wikipedia
Image
still a long way from Haiyan and I sure hope it stays that way
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Tropical Depression

#298 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:03 am

Foxfires wrote:According to Wikipedia
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/887577983508967455/923066469212905472/unknown.png
still a long way from Haiyan and I sure hope it stays that way


With the path it took, Rai would almost certainly surpass Bopha's total easily.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

#299 Postby Foxfires » Sat Dec 25, 2021 10:45 pm

Rai's death toll has passed the 400 mark according to Wikipedia. It seems to be rising much, much more slowly at least.

Well it's either that or news reports are just ignoring it rising or something. I mean I damn hope not.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

#300 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 26, 2021 4:11 am

Craziest video I've found so far from this typhoon. Insane whiteout
taken by a truck driver in Lipata Port in Surigao City



Link: https://youtu.be/MNRCUXDRWqY
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