WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#261 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:38 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:JTWC revised now 145 knots, stronger than the 1st peak, 4th cat 5 over this sea on record. Wow! :double:
28W RAI 211218 1800 12.5N 112.2E WPAC 145 915


Dumb question but where you seeing this? The JTWC portal still shows 115 kts and I am guessing it is still not updated...

Here
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#262 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:40 pm

Hurricane2021 wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:JTWC revised now 145 knots, stronger than the 1st peak, 4th cat 5 over this sea on record. Wow! :double:
28W RAI 211218 1800 12.5N 112.2E WPAC 145 915


The JTWC also revised the intensity of 1200Z?

The 12Z intensity is still the same. No changes.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#263 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:29 pm

Rai (JTWC 145kt, JMA 105kt/915mb, CMA 105kt/930mb)
Rammasun 2014 (JTWC 140kt, JMA 90kt/935mb, CMA 140kt/888mb).

JTWC and JMA estimates for Rai are an injustice to Rammasun. :roll:

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Last edited by doomhaMwx on Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#264 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:30 pm

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#265 Postby Foxfires » Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:13 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Rai (JTWC 145kt, JMA 105kt/915mb, CMA 105kt/930mb)
Rammasun 2014 (JTWC 140kt, JMA 90kt/935mb, CMA 140kt/888mb).

JTWC and JMA estimates for Rai are an injustice to Rammasun. :roll:

https://i.imgur.com/zn8E4ym.gif


Yeah they should definitely revise Rammasun's intensity
Especially JMA's pressure estimate because that one is just... wow

Also back on the topic of Rai, this would make it only the fourth(?) category 5 storm in the South China Sea right?
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#266 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:23 pm

Foxfires wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Rai (JTWC 145kt, JMA 105kt/915mb, CMA 105kt/930mb)
Rammasun 2014 (JTWC 140kt, JMA 90kt/935mb, CMA 140kt/888mb).

JTWC and JMA estimates for Rai are an injustice to Rammasun. :roll:

https://i.imgur.com/zn8E4ym.gif


Yeah they should definitely revise Rammasun's intensity
Especially JMA's pressure estimate because that one is just... wow

Also back on the topic of Rai, this would make it only the fourth(?) category 5 storm in the South China Sea right?

Third, the other one was Pamela (1954).
Last edited by doomhaMwx on Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#267 Postby Foxfires » Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:41 pm

Ok so apparently a lot of people (or a decent amount) are disagreeing on the JTWC's estimate of Rai peaking at 145kt (or at least as a category 5)
they're saying the JTWC is following the ADT? but I'm pretty sure ADT estimate was at like 155kt or something. This is probably the first time I've seen people say the JTWC is overestimating a storm (at least while the storm is happening) because everyone usually complains about underestimation.

What does everyone here think?
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#268 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:46 pm

ADT peaked at 155 while JTWC/SAB/JMA are T7.0 consensus. My hunch says it’s a bit weaker given how ragged it is but 140 is at least defendable especially given the list of WMG eyes that are awarded T7.0 that turn out to be weaker than advertised is small.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#269 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:43 pm

I think Rai has decoupled
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#270 Postby Foxfires » Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:44 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Foxfires wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Rai (JTWC 145kt, JMA 105kt/915mb, CMA 105kt/930mb)
Rammasun 2014 (JTWC 140kt, JMA 90kt/935mb, CMA 140kt/888mb).

JTWC and JMA estimates for Rai are an injustice to Rammasun. :roll:

https://i.imgur.com/zn8E4ym.gif


Yeah they should definitely revise Rammasun's intensity
Especially JMA's pressure estimate because that one is just... wow

Also back on the topic of Rai, this would make it only the fourth(?) category 5 storm in the South China Sea right?

Third, the other one was Pamela (1954).


I thought Meranti was a category 5 in the SCS?
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#271 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:40 pm

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#272 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:42 pm

videos are starting to come out of Siargao
Dapa, Siargao


Roofing of a gymnasium ripped apart by strong wind - Siargao
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#273 Postby Foxfires » Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:26 am

Foxfires wrote:Ok so apparently a lot of people (or a decent amount) are disagreeing on the JTWC's estimate of Rai peaking at 145kt (or at least as a category 5)
they're saying the JTWC is following the ADT? but I'm pretty sure ADT estimate was at like 155kt or something. This is probably the first time I've seen people say the JTWC is overestimating a storm (at least while the storm is happening) because everyone usually complains about underestimation.

What does everyone here think?


ooook I'm seeing more of them now
people are saying "definitely 130kt at most"
("Definitely" is a bold word for a guess based off of a satellite image imo)
they're saying the JTWC is relying too much on Dvorak (one person said they're estimating like amateurs which.. my god these people are aggressive)
someone also said Rai never reached category 5 intensity in the first place
I'm getting extremely mixed signals on how intense Rai's second peak was
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#274 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:00 am

Foxfires wrote:
Foxfires wrote:Ok so apparently a lot of people (or a decent amount) are disagreeing on the JTWC's estimate of Rai peaking at 145kt (or at least as a category 5)
they're saying the JTWC is following the ADT? but I'm pretty sure ADT estimate was at like 155kt or something. This is probably the first time I've seen people say the JTWC is overestimating a storm (at least while the storm is happening) because everyone usually complains about underestimation.

What does everyone here think?


ooook I'm seeing more of them now
people are saying "definitely 130kt at most"
("Definitely" is a bold word for a guess based off of a satellite image imo)
they're saying the JTWC is relying too much on Dvorak (one person said they're estimating like amateurs which.. my god these people are aggressive)
someone also said Rai never reached category 5 intensity in the first place
I'm getting extremely mixed signals on how intense Rai's second peak was

Yeah I didn't really follow it today so I can't speak for the second peak but I think the 140kt estimate for the first peak was fine imo. Seemed like a Cat 5 to me even though the peak didn't last long.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#275 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:54 am

Some stuff from CMA's weather stations in the Spratly (Nansha) Islands on Dec 18.

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 https://twitter.com/HanchyHill/status/1472387146992406528


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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#276 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:55 am

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#277 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:17 am

mrbagyo wrote:videos are starting to come out of Siargao
Dapa, Siargao
https://imgur.com/Wp9CZz5

Roofing of a gymnasium ripped apart by strong wind - Siargao
https://imgur.com/UZmhZGP



That is some Haiyan-level wind force
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#278 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:38 am

957.1 hPa was recorded in Song Tu Tay South West Cay (48892) at 0900 UTC ? Derived from the 3 hourly pressure tendency

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#279 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 19, 2021 3:12 am

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#280 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Dec 19, 2021 4:26 am

145 to 140. Still a cat 5, but even if it wasn't JMA went to T7.0
28W RAI 211219 0600 14.0N 110.7E WPAC 120 941
28W RAI 211219 0000 13.1N 111.4E WPAC 130 931
28W RAI 211218 1800 12.6N 112.2E WPAC 140 920
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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