WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#221 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:19 pm

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#222 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:21 pm

28W RAI 211218 0000 11.0N 115.9E WPAC 110 953
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#223 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:42 pm

Data from some Chinese-built weather stations in the Spratly Islands would be really useful now.

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#224 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:04 am

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#225 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:07 am

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#226 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:54 am

browning of vegetation at Santa Monica, Siargao Island
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#227 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:10 am

Here's another video. This is from Surigao City (fb link)

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#228 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:21 am

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#229 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:12 am

28W RAI 211218 0600 11.2N 114.8E WPAC 110 953

Rai now has a radial outflow.

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#230 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:13 am

Interesting what would the 2nd peak be, eye temp for the very first time has went to + from ADT.
2021DEC18 084000 6.7 933 132 6.7 7.0 7.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.45 -79.07 EYE 17 IR 19.1 11.59 -113.98 ARCHER HIM-8 33.7

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Would be amazed if it went to cat 5 again especially this sea has only 3 cat 5s on record or even beat the 1st peak.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#231 Postby NotoSans » Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:22 am

I still remember the shock when I saw Rammasun intensifying into a cat.5 (operationally 135kt) before making landfall over Hainan. I didn’t expect I’d see that again, not to mention in December.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#232 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:32 am

Are there any other stations in the Spratlys other than Song Tu Tay (48892)?

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#233 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 am

2021DEC18 094000 7.0 925 140 7.0 7.3 7.6 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.04 -80.91 EYE 14 IR 19.1 11.64 -113.92 ARCHER HIM-8 33.8
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#234 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:14 am

eye temp is now at positive double digit
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#235 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:38 am

mrbagyo wrote:Are there any other stations in the Spratlys other than Song Tu Tay (48892)?

https://i.imgur.com/HdP1nWL.png


http://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-10/31/c_1123641033.htm
Don't expect data to be publicly available, but China opened three meteorological stations there in 2018 (in Yongshu, Zhubi, and Meiji reefs). The article says there's even a weather radar there. Might be politically controversial but I think it's cool from a meteorological standpoint!

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#236 Postby Foxfires » Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:57 am

Hey uh, what's everyone's intensity estimate for Rai's (first) peak and do you agree with the JTWC's/JMA's estimate?
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#237 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:02 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:Are there any other stations in the Spratlys other than Song Tu Tay (48892)?

https://i.imgur.com/HdP1nWL.png


http://www.xinhuanet.com/2018-10/31/c_1123641033.htm
Don't expect data to be publicly available, but China opened three meteorological stations there in 2018 (in Yongshu, Zhubi, and Meiji reefs). The article says there's even a weather radar there. Might be politically controversial but I think it's cool from a meteorological standpoint!

https://i.imgur.com/dyGznaD.png


There's absolutely a weather radar on those islands. I've seen a lot of radomes on those reclaimed island when I was browsing google earth pro.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#238 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:06 am

140kts/105kts from JTWC/JMA sound okay to me. It could've been higher if not for the unrelenting shear (which Rai had surprisingly overcome) and the EWRC prior to landfall. Still its intensity was enough to pack a punch. People in the Visayas and Mindanao are saying that Rai was more intense than Mike.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#239 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:43 am

5 knots increase. Lol

28W RAI 211218 1200 11.9N 113.5E WPAC 115 946
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#240 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:49 am

Back to cat 4
28W RAI 211218 1200 11.9N 113.5E WPAC 115 946


WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2122 RAI (2122)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 11.9N 113.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 210NM SOUTHEAST
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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