Foxfires wrote:Ok so apparently a lot of people (or a decent amount) are disagreeing on the JTWC's estimate of Rai peaking at 145kt (or at least as a category 5)
they're saying the JTWC is following the ADT? but I'm pretty sure ADT estimate was at like 155kt or something. This is probably the first time I've seen people say the JTWC is overestimating a storm (at least while the storm is happening) because everyone usually complains about underestimation.
What does everyone here think?
ooook I'm seeing more of them now
people are saying "definitely 130kt at most"
("Definitely" is a bold word for a guess based off of a satellite image imo)
they're saying the JTWC is relying too much on Dvorak (one person said they're estimating like amateurs which.. my god these people are aggressive)
someone also said Rai never reached category 5 intensity in the first place
I'm getting extremely mixed signals on how intense Rai's second peak was