WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

[MarioProtVI]

JTWC overrides 12z to 90 kt. So much for the “CCC”

[aspen]

If that eye manages to clear, Rai could be a Cat 4 at landfall. It’s thankfully running out of time fast. However, some B pixels have been showing up in the eye over the last few hours.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I mean its got another 18 hours till landfall.

[InfernoFlameCat]

[ElectricStorm]

This thing looks like it's exploding. Wouldn't be surprised to see a strong Cat 4+ at landfall unfortunately. Kinda reminds me a bit of Nock-ten 2016.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Pinhole eye incoming

[Hayabusa]

Cat 4

28W RAI 211215 1800 9.4N 128.9E WPAC 115 944

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hold up, I see signs that the storm may be undergoing an ERWC. I see inner and outer wrapping clouds.

[Hayabusa]

thanks to that VCDG

2021DEC15 184000 5.0 968 90 5.0 5.0 7.5 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -30.16 -88.14 EYE/P -99 IR 74.0 9.42 -128.79 ARCHER HIM-8 17.7

[InfernoFlameCat]

Edit: microwave scan does not suggest an eyewall replacement cycle at all.

[InfernoFlameCat]

[InfernoFlameCat]

[aspen]

Welp, my comments about shear keeping this at bay aged poorly. Rai could be a Super Typhoon by landfall if an EWRC doesn’t start overnight. Reminds me a lot of Eta.

Also, Rai’s Philippines name is Odette. It couldn’t be any more different than the pathetic excuse for a TC that the Atlantic Odette was

[InfernoFlameCat]

Cloud tops continue to get colder and more organized and the eye temp is rapidly approaching the positive realm. It is still below -50C but the eye is quickly warming.

[zzh]

2021DEC15 191000 5.0 967 90 5.0 5.0 7.0 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -62.81 -88.18 EYE

Adt has a huge bias when facing very cold cloudtops.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Cloud tops are nearing -100C now. And this time, its a CDO.

[Hayabusa]

Latest warning cat 5 before landfall

[ElectricStorm]

Latest warning cat 5 before landfall
https://i.imgur.com/HPDaL8j.gif

Yikes. Hope everyone over there stays safe. Unreal.

[Yellow Evan]

Cold today being so cold is largely a biproduct of the wintertime tropopause. Put this storm off the Bahamas in the summer and it’d be just as strong with warmer cloud tops due to the warmer tropopause.

[aspen]

Cold today being so cold is largely a biproduct of the wintertime tropopause. Put this storm off the Bahamas in the summer and it’d be just as strong with warmer cloud tops due to the warmer tropopause.

That’s why I’ll be skeptical of Cat 5 intensity estimates unless this has a 20C pinhole. This is very similar to Eta, except even later in the calendar year and without recon.