WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ50 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2122 RAI (2122) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 08.7N 132.3E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 151200UTC 09.3N 129.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 160000UTC 09.9N 127.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 170000UTC 10.2N 121.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 180000UTC 11.1N 116.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 190000UTC 12.7N 111.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 200000UTC 15.5N 110.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[stormstrike]

[dexterlabio]

I think right now it looks almost as good as Phanfone in 2019 prior to making landfall, and it was a 100kt Cat3 then. Rai still has 2 days before landfall, so I guess the ceiling can be a tiny bit higher than Cat3 at least?

[stormstrike]

shear forecast is favorable for the next 24 hrs so we'll see...

28W
TROPICAL STORM 28W 0:00UTC 15December2021
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from JTWC) :
Latitude : 9:04:23 N
Longitude : 131:53:47 E
Intensity (MSLP) : 980.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 858.0 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 122.0 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 6.7 m/s (13.1 kts)
Direction : 93.7 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.5 -6.0 - -3.0 -9.0 - -4.5 -12.0 - -6.0
N -1.5 - +1.5 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.5 - +4.5 -6.0 - +6.0
U +1.5 - +3.0 +3.0 - +6.0 +4.5 - +9.0 +6.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0

[ElectricStorm]

28W RAI 211215 0000 8.9N 132.3E WPAC 65 985

[mrbagyo]

I think right now it looks almost as good as Phanfone in 2019 prior to making landfall, and it was a 100kt Cat3 then. Rai still has 2 days before landfall, so I guess the ceiling can be a tiny bit higher than Cat3 at least?

yeah, Rai has lots of time left before impact and the southern Philippine sea can obviously support an intense major TC.


Bopha temporarily weakened due EWRC then went nuclear as it approached the coast of Mindanao in a very short period of time

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Given what Phanfone and Bopha were able to do, I'm really really worried about this. 90-95 kts may be very well conservative. Rai's already got "that" look and still has a day and a half to go before landfall. Especially concerning are waters to the south and east off the coasts of Leyte and northern Caraga.

The last typhoon to have directly hit the metro was Mike in 1990. Paralyzed us enough and it wasn't a category 5.

[Sciencerocks]

[dexterlabio]

What I find interesting is the simulated IR image forecast from GFS and HWRF...right now Rai has a small CDO but by the time of landfall, both models are showing a huge increase in size of central convection.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1470950097433333768

[dexterlabio]

My theory is Rai has tracked more westward which makes it go against the direction of VWS, whereas in the previous model forecast tracks it was shown to have a more northerly motion, which could have made much less VWS impacts as it is tracking in-phase with the shear direction (e.g. Nyatoh). Rai could have easily become a Cat4 right now if the latter scenario transpired.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

28W RAI 211215 0600 9.1N 131.0E WPAC 70 980

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

An old microwave pass from 3z shows a small eyewall with a weak NE side. Shear is probably to blame and is likely why it has yet to clear out.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Up to 80 kts from JTWC

28W RAI 211215 1200 9.4N 130.0E WPAC 80 977

Straight from 65 to 75 kts from the JMA.

T2122(Rai)
Issued at 2021/12/15 12:45 UTC
Analisys at 12/15 12 UTC
Category TY
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center Position N9°0′(9.0°)
E130°10′(130.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE110km(60NM)
30-kt wind area NE440km(240NM)
SW280km(150NM)
Forecast at 12/16 00 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Very Strong
Center of probability circle N9°50′(9.8°)
E127°40′(127.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 55km(30NM)
Storm warning area WIDE200km(110NM)
Forecast at 12/16 12 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N10°0′(10.0°)
E124°30′(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 80km(42NM)
Storm warning area WIDE210km(115NM)
Forecast at 12/17 12 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N10°40′(10.7°)
E119°10′(119.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area WIDE250km(135NM)
Forecast at 12/18 12 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N12°0′(12.0°)
E113°35′(113.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
Storm warning area WIDE360km(195NM)
Forecast at 12/19 12 UTC
Category STS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N14°5′(14.1°)
E110°35′(110.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 310km(170NM)
Storm warning area WIDE430km(230NM)
Forecast at 12/20 12 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N17°0′(17.0°)
E111°0′(111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Is that what I think it is...?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Is that what I think it is...?

https://i.imgur.com/ZrH2BXu.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ZaWDuH5.gif

Yes it is
Very rapid Intensification is occurring right now. I think this will go super easily.

[InfernoFlameCat]

It is close to a ring of 90C!.
Probably a high end Cat 2 right now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Yes it is
Very rapid Intensification is occurring right now. I think this will go super easily.

Oh dear. That makes me even more worried because even TS winds could put us into a halt. But with Rai, it seems to be that people here in my metro area have been rather lax with this. People don't realize how serious this thing could be... I can't imagine what tomorrow's gonna bring us.

It seems to have held well against the shear and now it begins. I don't know what the ceiling is, the only thing against it is land.

[doomhaMwx]

Gravity waves radiating outward from the center of the typhoon are also clearly visible on satellite loops, which has been the focus of some studies for identifying TC intensification.