WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#241 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:00 am

CMA - 105 knots - 930 hPa


ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 181200
Subjective the FORECAST
SuperTY the RAI 2122 (2122) 181200 UTC the INITIAL the TIME
00HR 11.8 N 113.5E 930HPA 55M / S
30KTS the WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
320km Southeast
350KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 120KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
120KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 50KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
50KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 22KM/H
P+06HR 12.3N 112.5E 935HPA 52M/S
P+12HR 13.0N 111.5E 940HPA 50M
P+18HR 13.6N 111.1E 945HPA 48M/S
P+24HR 14.4N 110.7E 950HPA 45M/S
P+36HR 16.8N 110.9E 970HPA 35M/S
P+48HR 18.8N 111.8E 985HPA 25M/S
P+60HR 20.1N 113.7 E 998HPA 15M/S =
NNNN



JMA is at 925 hPa - 100 knots
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#242 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:13 am

ML-based ADT says a cat 5 too...
Image
2021DEC18 124000 7.3 916 149 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 1.86 -80.66 EYE 18 IR 59.2 11.96 -113.23 ARCHER HIM-8 34.7
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#243 Postby aspen » Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:20 am

Hayabusa wrote:ML-based ADT says a cat 5 too...
https://i.imgur.com/wg5tO2m.png
2021DEC18 124000 7.3 916 149 7.3 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 1.86 -80.66 EYE 18 IR 59.2 11.96 -113.23 ARCHER HIM-8 34.7

I’ve never seen a JTWC estimate go so far below ADT. The 12z BT is at 115kt.

I don’t think this is a Cat 5 yet because the CDO and eye have not smoothed out yet, but Rai is probably stronger — 125-130 kt. The cold tropopause is likely messing with ADT.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#244 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:22 am

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 12181125
SATCON: MSLP = 936 hPa MSW = 135 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 131.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 124 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 240 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.0 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 919 hPa 146 knots Scene: CDO Date: DEC181210
CIMSS AMSU: 950 hPa 108 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 12181125
ATMS: 938.7 hPa 113.9 knots Date: 12180609
SSMIS: 938.7 hPa 113.9 knots Date: 12180609
CIRA ATMS: 964 hPa 90 knots Date:


Image
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#245 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:48 am

Ughh only if we have an updating SAR/SMAP :roll:
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#246 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:50 am

Hayabusa wrote:Ughh only if we have an updating SAR/SMAP :roll:


There are probably ground obs and radar data from the reclaimed island in the Spratlys - NMC just won't release them. Arggg
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#247 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:52 am

Rai's outer rainband has started to appear on Vietnam's radar network
Image
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#248 Postby aspen » Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:01 am

If Rai doesn’t degrade by the time of the 18z intensity update, the JTWC will probably assess it at 125–135 kt and revise the 12z BT estimate, just like they did during Rai’s first RI phase.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#249 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Dec 18, 2021 9:12 am

NCHMF Vietnam stated in a report that its synoptic station on Southwest Cay (Song Tu Tay) in the Spratly Islands recorded level 14 winds w/ level 17 gusts (149-165kph winds, >200kph gusts) on the Beaufort scale during the passage of Rai today. The station is only 5m high.

I contacted them about the lowest pressure but I don't think I'll receive a response. :lol:

 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1472205478377623553



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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#250 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:42 am

2021DEC18 151000 7.4 911 152 7.4 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.88 -79.57 EYE 18 IR 59.2 12.29 -112.77 ARCHER HIM-8 35.3
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#251 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Dec 18, 2021 11:58 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#252 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:17 pm

Impressive system
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#253 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:05 pm

JMA 18Z back to cat 5, last cat 5 on this sea was Meranti. Rai's record is now unprecedented a cat 5 on December over this sea occurring at latitude <15N
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.0
DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.0
PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#254 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:46 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2122 RAI (2122)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 12.6N 112.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 190600UTC 13.6N 110.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 191800UTC 15.7N 110.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 201800UTC 19.8N 113.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 211800UTC 20.9N 117.4E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


T2122(Rai)
Issued at 2021/12/18 18:45 UTC
Analisys at 12/18 18 UTC
Category TY
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center Position N12°35′(12.6°)
E112°10′(112.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE185km(100NM)
30-kt wind area N500km(270NM)
S390km(210NM)
Forecast at 12/19 06 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Violent
Center of probability circle N13°35′(13.6°)
E110°50′(110.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 45km(25NM)
Storm warning area WIDE230km(125NM)
Forecast at 12/19 18 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Very Strong
Center of probability circle N15°40′(15.7°)
E110°50′(110.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 65km(35NM)
Storm warning area WIDE230km(125NM)
Forecast at 12/20 18 UTC
Category STS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N19°50′(19.8°)
E113°5′(113.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 110km(60NM)
Storm warning area WIDE165km(90NM)
Forecast at 12/21 18 UTC
Category TD
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N20°55′(20.9°)
E117°25′(117.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Radius of probability circle 185km(100NM)


While JTWC...
28W RAI 211218 1800 12.5N 112.2E WPAC 125 936
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#255 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:57 pm

TXPQ25 KNES 181751
TCSWNP

A. 28W (RAI)

B. 18/1730Z

C. 12.5N

D. 112.3E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T7.0/7.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN WHITE YIELDS A
DT OF 7.0. MET IS EQUAL TO 6.5 AND PT IS EQUAL TO 7.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#256 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:01 pm

JTWC revised now 145 knots, stronger than the 1st peak, 4th cat 5 over this sea on record. Wow! :double:
28W RAI 211218 1800 12.5N 112.2E WPAC 145 915
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#257 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:15 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 181859

A. SUPER TYPHOON 28W (RAI)

B. 18/1731Z

C. 12.52N

D. 112.53E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. EYE PATTERN TECHNIQUE YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT YIELD 6.5. DBO DT.

DESSINO
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#258 Postby skyline385 » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:19 pm

Hayabusa wrote:JTWC revised now 145 knots, stronger than the 1st peak, 4th cat 5 over this sea on record. Wow! :double:
28W RAI 211218 1800 12.5N 112.2E WPAC 145 915


Dumb question but where you seeing this? The JTWC portal still shows 115 kts and I am guessing it is still not updated...
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#259 Postby aspen » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:19 pm

Hayabusa wrote:JTWC revised now 145 knots, stronger than the 1st peak, 4th cat 5 over this sea on record. Wow! :double:
28W RAI 211218 1800 12.5N 112.2E WPAC 145 915

Wow a 20kt revision to a BT estimate before the official advisory…I’ve never seen a revision of that magnitude before. The jump from 115kt to 145kt is also the largest operational 6hr intensity increase this year.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#260 Postby Hurricane2021 » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:23 pm

Hayabusa wrote:JTWC revised now 145 knots, stronger than the 1st peak, 4th cat 5 over this sea on record. Wow! :double:
28W RAI 211218 1800 12.5N 112.2E WPAC 145 915


The JTWC also revised the intensity of 1200Z?
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