WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Dec 13, 2021 12:46 am

97W INVEST 211213 0000 5.5N 110.7E WPAC 15 0

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:26 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:44 am

Uh forgot this is a TD since 14/00Z
WWJP27 RJTD 140000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 05N 110E ALMOST STATIONARY.

WWJP27 RJTD 141200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 06N 109E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:31 am

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150152ZDEC2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141951ZDEC2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 15DEC21 0000Z, TYPHOON 28W (RAI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM NORTHWEST OF KOROR, AND HAD TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N
106.9E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM NORTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL,
150000Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES,
OFFSET BY LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY TRACK
WESTWARD OVER THE 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:33 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 151830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/151830Z-160600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZDEC2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 15DEC21 1200Z, TYPHOON 28W (RAI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 613 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.9N 106.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 107.1E, APPROXIMATELY 357
NM SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 151106Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#6 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Dec 16, 2021 1:10 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:19 pm

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WDPN32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 4.2N 104.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 176 NM NORTH OF SINGAPORE
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. A 161730Z
GPM COLORIZED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE MALAYSIAN COAST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ASSESSED CENTER, WITH LOW LEVEL SPIRAL BANDING
FEATURES EVIDENT IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM MALAYSIA IS SHOWING THE FIRST HINTS OF A
ROTATION JUST OFFSHORE NORTHEAST OF KUANTAN. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE AND
RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK FIX INTENSITY OF T1.5, AS WELL AS
A 161500Z SHIP OBSERVATION, LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER,
OF 23 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VWS, WARM SSTS (27-28C) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL PROVE A HINDRANCE TO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: PROXIMITY TO LAND.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
KUANTAN, MALAYSIA WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE HOWEVER, THE PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD PROVE A
HINDRANCE TO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO TUCK UNDER THE AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST, AND THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY INTENSIFY TO 30 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE
ASHORE, EXPECT STEADY DECAY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 24, THOUGH THE SYSTEM COULD
DISSIPATE WELL PRIOR TO THAT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX
TERRAIN OF THE REGION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NOT SURPRISINGLY FOR A WEAK SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS,
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH A WIDE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS, SOME TACKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN MALACCA STRAIT, WHILE THE NAVGEM TURNS THE SYSTEM SOUTH
AND EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
OBSERVED MOTION VECTOR AND ANALYSIS OF THE STEERING PATTERN. DUE TO
THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST, EVEN IN VIEW OF THE LARGE
SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT ODDLY ALL INDICATES INTENSIFICATION, EVEN OVER
LAND, THOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE TERRAIN FEATURES.
THUS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS DISCOUNTED AND THE FORECAST RELIES
UPON TRENDS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#8 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 16, 2021 4:34 pm

This thing is spinning nicely near 4°N latitude!

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#9 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:05 pm

Now overland.
29W TWENTYNINE 211217 0000 4.2N 103.0E WPAC 25 1005

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#10 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:33 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#11 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:22 pm

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