BOB: INVEST 94B

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Hayabusa
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BOB: INVEST 94B

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:33 am

I am usually not bothered by storms here (unless it's a cat 5) but the model track is interesting.
Image
ABIO10 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/170200Z-171800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4N
87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 472 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 152232Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94B WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD MYANMAR WITHIN
THE NEXT 48-72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Sciencerocks
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Re: BOB: INVEST 94B

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:36 am

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doomhaMwx
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Re: BOB: INVEST 94B

#3 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Dec 19, 2021 5:46 am

Man, models have gone from interesting to nothing with this one. Last week, they were showing it becoming a TS and moving east into the WPAC. A NIO to WPAC crossover would have been unprecedented.
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Re: BOB: INVEST 94B

#4 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Dec 19, 2021 4:35 pm

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