WPAC: INVEST 98W

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: INVEST 98W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:49 am

98W INVEST 211219 0600 2.0N 149.5E WPAC 15 0

The next one after Rai the GFS is showing previously
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:55 am

Not excited ensembles but it can always change suddenly...
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Dec 19, 2021 8:00 am

HWRF already running for 98W, usually an advisory comes first before we see HWRF runs for invests like what happened with Rai but models aren't even enthusiastic with this one... but who knows it may be a sleeper and I like sleepers more.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:25 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:49 pm

98W INVEST 211221 0000 6.6N 142.0E WPAC 20 1007

ABPW10 PGTW 210200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/210200Z-210600ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 20DEC21 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 28W (RAI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG
KONG, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 202100) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N
140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 202057Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA OF
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 98W WILL TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, AND ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING
SOME CONSOLIDATION AND DEEPENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:08 am

0z GFS peaks this at 985mb at landfall in the Philippines but then stalls the remnants right over the areas hit by Rai. That would be a disaster and hopefully this doesn't verify.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#7 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:56 am

So far only GFS and NAVGEM are showing a TS development. Canadian ensembles somehow show hints of development.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Dec 23, 2021 1:52 am

GFS no longer develops this, which would be great news for the areas just hit by Rai.
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